{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-transportation-and-material-moving-workers-except-aircraft-cargo-handling-supervisors/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors",
    "soc_code": "53-1047",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 623640,
    "median_annual_wage": 62890
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 52,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 14,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 9,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "About half of a shift lead's actual clock — dispatch sequencing, trailer door assignments, driver hours-of-service pre-checks, productivity and dwell reports, overtime calculations — is already handled by Manhattan/Blue Yonder WMS, Samsara telematics, and labor-standards modules, while the other half (walking the dock at 4am, re-crewing around three call-outs, coaching a new forklift operator who keeps clipping racking) has no software substitute, which is exactly what an 11 means rather than a 6.",
    "embodiment": "You are on a concrete floor, a rail yard, or a bus platform in whatever weather it is, climbing into trailers to verify loads, spotting for reversing equipment, and physically walking a spill or a downed pallet — uncontrolled outdoor and mixed-traffic environments push this to 14, held short of higher only because you direct rather than operate the equipment most of the shift.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no license gate on this job — a CDL, a powered-industrial-truck trainer cert under 29 CFR 1910.178(l), or an OSHA 30 card helps you get hired but no statute makes you personally answerable, and when a citation lands it goes to the employer as the responsible party, so the 5 reflects certification-preferred, not protected.",
    "trust_premium": "The value is in the crew knowing you'll back them and in a driver or dock lead taking your word on a hot load, which is real but portable — customers, shippers, and the receiving DC deal with the company account, not with you by name, so a departure changes the shift's mood and not the contract.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide in real time whether a rig goes out with a marginal brake reading, whether to send a fatigued driver home and eat the missed delivery, and whether an incident is recordable — calls with DOT, OSHA, and injury consequences made without a lawyer or a procedure that covers the specific case, which is a 13; it stops short of 14+ because network-level and capital decisions sit above you."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal worker here is a warehouse, dock, yard, or transit supervisor who spends the day on a floor or in a yard directing loaders, drivers, and forklift operators — that physical presence and crew management is not automatable, but the planning layer around it is. Route sequencing, shift rostering, load assignment, dwell-time and productivity reporting, and DOT logbook checks are already being absorbed by WMS/TMS optimization engines and telematics dashboards. What holds is the human who walks the dock, handles a no-show or a jackknifed trailer, disciplines and trains a churning crew, and owns the safety incident when OSHA shows up.",
  "outlook": "Headcount per site shrinks as scheduling and dispatch software absorbs the planning work and spans of control widen, but a physical human accountable for the crew and the safety record stays on every dock and yard.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "FMCSA/state enforcement or insurer requirements that name a designated, individually-certified human safety supervisor as the accountable signer for hours-of-service falsification, hazmat load certification (49 CFR 172.704 trained-person sign-off), and crane/rigging lift plans — extending the existing pattern where OSHA cites a named 'competent person' and hazmat shippers' certifications require a specific trained employee. Also watch state warehouse quota laws (CA AB 701, NY, WA, MN) that require a named supervisor to furnish and defend written quota records.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "As WMS/TMS engines take route sequencing, rostering and load assignment, the residual role is exception ownership: overriding an algorithmic quota or dispatch call under CA AB 701-style laws, deciding to pull an unsafe driver or ground equipment, and being the deposed witness after an injury. Task-mix shift plus any board/OSHA rule making the override decision individually documented and attributable raises this.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Two genuine tiers exist here: the planning/reporting tier (route sequencing, dwell reports, logbook checks) and the crew tier (discipline, no-shows, incident handling, training a churning workforce). If the planning tier is fully absorbed, the measured remaining day is dominated by tasks current systems cannot do — but the honest note is that this raises the score only because the job shrinks, and headcount per site typically falls with it.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Little upward room — the physical presence is already scored high. A modest rise if union contracts (Teamsters warehouse and transit agreements) explicitly require a bargaining-unit supervisor physically on-shift rather than a remote control-tower supervisor covering multiple sites, blocking the centralization that currently reduces on-floor presence.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to a higher trust premium: the buyer is the employer, not an end customer, and nobody pays a premium for a human dock supervisor by name. The dominant threat is not task automation but remote consolidation — one supervisor covering four sites via camera and telematics — which the liability and union levers slow but do not stop."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 455390,
        "wage": 55060
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 477430,
        "wage": 54870
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 549260,
        "wage": 54850
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 591760,
        "wage": 57860
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 594330,
        "wage": 60510
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 605510,
        "wage": 61890
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 623640,
        "wage": 62890
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 36.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}