{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/floral-designers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Floral Designers", "soc_code": "27-1023", "category": "Media", "us_employment": 40590, "median_annual_wage": 37360 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 50, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 12, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Wiring a boutonniere, taping a bridal bouquet handle, and hydrating and conditioning stems that vary in thickness and rigidity from box to box sits at 13 rather than 17 because the front half of the job — sketching concepts, writing proposals, pricing a recipe, posting the finished photo — is already being done by generative tools, and much of walk-in volume is now pre-made stems dropped into a sleeve.", "embodiment": "A 16 reflects work that moves between a cooler at 34°F, a wet bench with knives and stem strippers, and a client's venue where you are on a ladder zip-tying a mechanic to a rented arch before doors open — uncontrolled sites, live loads, and perishable stock, though it stays short of the 18-20 band because much of the week is still at a fixed shop bench.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses floral design; anyone can open a shop tomorrow, and AIFD accreditation is a credential customers rarely ask about and no statute requires, which is why this sits at 1 instead of the 5-10 certification band.", "trust_premium": "12 is the weight of the bride who books you because she saw your work at her sister's wedding, plus the funeral-home and restaurant standing orders that follow a specific designer — real relationship equity, but not 15+, because most transactions are still a phone order or a website click where the buyer never learns your name.", "judgment_accountability": "The discretion is real but bounded: you decide substitutions when the peonies arrive blown, adjust proportions to the vessel, and read a grieving family's budget without asking — calls that matter to the customer but carry no safety or legal consequence, which puts it at 8 rather than the 14+ reserved for irreversible high-stakes decisions." }, "rationale": "The core act — conditioning stems, wiring boutonnieres, building a balanced arrangement in a vase that won't tip, and installing an arch on site — is delicate manual work in unpredictable material conditions that no current robot handles. What AI does take is the surrounding layer: mood boards and design concepts, proposal and quote writing, Instagram content, order intake and substitution scripting, and the seasonal-availability research designers used to do by hand. The bigger threat to this occupation is not AI but retail consolidation and mass-market pre-made bouquets; AI mostly speeds that up by making cheap sellers look designed.", "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat but splits: mass-market bouquet assembly gets commoditized and squeezed, while event/wedding/sympathy designers with their own client books hold pricing power.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Wedding and event venues increasingly require named, insured on-site florists with a contract and site-visit walkthrough (already common in venue-approved-vendor lists); a visible 'designed and installed by a named local designer' expectation in the luxury/event tier — parallel to the AIFD accreditation and 'Certified Florist' marks state associations push — would let event work price away from mass-market stems. This only touches the event tier, not daily orders.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if concepting, quoting, substitution scripting and social content are fully absorbed by software, the residual paid job is on-site install, mechanics under real conditions, and live substitution decisions when a shipment arrives short — the tier robots and models do not touch. This raises the score of what remains without any new law.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Event-scale installs (suspended arches, ceiling structures) carrying rigging/load responsibility written into venue contracts and event-insurance riders — some venues already require proof of liability coverage and rigging sign-off for hung floral. If insurers make a named designer answerable for structural install, the consequential-call ownership rises.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No plausible licensure route: no US state licenses floral design (Louisiana's florist exam was the last, and it was narrowed in 2010), so liability_shield realistically stays near 1. The dominant threat is retail consolidation and pre-made bouquets, which no dimension here defends against." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 43470, "wage": 26350 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 43360, "wage": 27200 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 41770, "wage": 28040 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 36810, "wage": 29140 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 36000, "wage": 29880 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 42840, "wage": 33160 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 43350, "wage": 34690 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 40160, "wage": 36120 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 40590, "wage": 37360 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -6.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }