{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/food-and-tobacco-roasting-baking-and-drying-machine-operators-and-tenders/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders", "soc_code": "51-3091", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 20370, "median_annual_wage": 44810 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 30, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 7, "embodiment": 13, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 5 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Setting roast profiles, watching drum temperature and bean color, logging batch weights and times, and pulling cupping samples are all already run by PLC recipe control and inline NIR moisture sensors in modern plants — a 7 rather than a 3 because the manual pieces (rake-out, screen cleaning, changeover between product runs) still need a person on the floor, and rather than a 12 because none of the decision-making part of the loop is beyond existing software.", "embodiment": "You are inside a hot, dusty production space handling 50-pound totes and hoppers, climbing on dryer decks, clearing chaff and product jams, and hosing down equipment between runs — a 13 because it is genuinely hands-on and non-repeatable in position, but not higher because the plant floor is a fixed, engineered environment rather than the unpredictable outdoor or field conditions that push scores toward 18.", "liability_shield": "No state license, no certification exam, no operator signature attaches to a batch; food-safety exposure rests with the plant's HACCP plan and the QA/PCQI who signs it, and a 2 rather than 0 only reflects the employer-mandated allergen and GMP training you sit through.", "trust_premium": "The end buyer of the coffee, nuts, or crackers has no idea a person tended the roaster; your only relationship value is that your foreman knows which line you can run without scorching, which is a 3 — internal familiarity, not a product anyone pays for.", "judgment_accountability": "Calls are bounded by the recipe card and spec sheet — hold this temperature band, this moisture percentage, reject out-of-color batches — and a 5 reflects the real but narrow discretion to stop a run or dump a burnt lot before QA sees it, with a supervisor deciding anything past that." }, "rationale": "The core loop — watching temperature and moisture gauges, adjusting roast or bake time, recording batch data, pulling samples — is exactly what process-control software and inline sensors already do better and continuously. What holds the job in place is physical: loading and unloading ovens and dryers, clearing jams, cleaning and changing over equipment, and catching a burnt or off-color batch by smell and sight on the plant floor. There is no license, no signature, and the buyer of coffee or crackers never meets you, so the only real moat is that a plant would need capital to fully automate handling, not intelligence.", "outlook": "Headcount keeps sliding as new lines ship with closed-loop control and fewer tenders per oven; the survivors are the ones who also maintain the machine or own the food-safety paperwork.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Specialty-coffee certification schemes that require named human roasters — e.g. SCA-certified roast profiles, Q Grader involvement, or 'craft roasted' claims on single-origin bags — expanding as a marketing category. Buyers in third-wave coffee and artisan bakery already pay a premium tied to a named human at the drum. This applies only to the small-batch tier, not to commodity roasting or industrial cracker lines.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift within the two-tier structure: if inline NIR moisture and color sensors plus PLC recipe control absorb the gauge-watching and batch-logging tier, the residual job becomes profile development, sensory cupping/QA rejection calls, and changeover troubleshooting on aging equipment. Watch for job postings retitled 'roast technician' or 'process technologist' requiring sensory panel qualification.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "FSMA Preventive Controls rules already designate a Preventive Controls Qualified Individual who owns critical-control-point deviation decisions. If a plant assigns PCQI status and CCP release authority to the roast/oven operator rather than a separate QA manager — common in small plants where headcount is thin — the operator personally owns the hold-or-release call on a deviated lot.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Narrow route only: FDA acrylamide guidance or a state cannabis/nut-pasteurization rule requiring a named, trained individual to sign off on validated kill-step or roast-lethality records per batch. Cannabis drying/curing in states like California and Colorado already requires named responsible persons on batch records. This is documentation duty, not personal liability of the kind a license carries.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Ceiling is low. There is no license, no client relationship, and the strongest holds are capital cost of materials handling and food-safety paperwork — both erodible. Most upside concentrates in the small-batch craft segment, which is a minority of these 20,370 jobs; commodity drying and industrial baking lines have essentially no route up." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 21130, "wage": 29410 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 21060, "wage": 30840 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 20830, "wage": 31590 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 19010, "wage": 32480 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 21050, "wage": 35480 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 20010, "wage": 37790 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 19570, "wage": 39850 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 19500, "wage": 42730 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 20370, "wage": 44810 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -3.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "cleaning-washing-and-metal-pickling-equipment-operators-and-tenders", "title": "Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 42, "median_wage": 43530, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Selection" ] }, { "slug": "refuse-and-recyclable-material-collectors", "title": "Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 55, "median_wage": 49690, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }