{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/food-service-managers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Food Service Managers",
    "soc_code": "11-9051",
    "category": "Management",
    "us_employment": 238430,
    "median_annual_wage": 69390
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 61,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 12,
    "embodiment": 16,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Toast, 7shifts and Restaurant365 already generate the schedule, flag food-cost variance, auto-reorder to par and draft the Google review reply, but nothing digital expedites a slammed Friday ticket rail, retrains a cook on plating, or handles a walk-in cooler failing at 5pm — hence 12 rather than 6, because the automatable tasks are the ones you do in the office with the door closed.",
    "embodiment": "You are physically in the building for open or close, walking the line, checking cooler temps and dish machine sanitizer strength, hauling deliveries off a truck, standing in on a station when a cook no-shows, and mopping when the closer quits — a wet, hot, uncontrolled floor with knives and fryers, which is why this is 16 and not a 10 like a manager who occasionally visits a site.",
    "liability_shield": "ServSafe Manager certification plus a local health-department Person-in-Charge card is required in most jurisdictions and your name goes on the inspection report, but it's a short proctored exam anyone can pass, no board revokes your career over a violation, and the owner or franchisee carries the license and the lawsuit — that combination sits at 8, above uncertified work, far below a nurse or engineer.",
    "trust_premium": "Regulars know you by name, your cooks stay because they'll work for you and not the next GM, and vendor reps cut you deals on that basis — but diners choose the restaurant, the brand and the food first, and turnover in this role runs high enough that guests survive your replacement, which caps it at 11.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether to comp a $200 check, whether to send home a line cook who smells like alcohol, whether to 86 a protein that's borderline, whether to fire a popular server over a cash discrepancy, and whether to stay open when the hood system trips — real termination, foodborne-illness and liquor-liability consequences with no procedure that decides for you, which is 14."
  },
  "rationale": "The paperwork half of this job — scheduling, inventory par levels, food-cost variance reports, vendor ordering, sales forecasting, review responses — is already being absorbed by restaurant ops software with AI layers, and that will continue. The other half is standing on a hot line at 7pm covering a no-show cook, firing a server, calming an angry table, and passing a health inspection, which no robot does. Most food service managers work in a single restaurant or institutional kitchen where physical presence and on-the-spot personnel calls are the actual job.",
  "outlook": "The role survives because someone has to be physically accountable in the building, but the administrative half thins out and one manager will cover more units with software doing the scheduling and ordering.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "FDA Food Code's Person-In-Charge / Certified Food Protection Manager requirement being tightened by state and county health departments so that a named, certified individual must be physically present and personally signs HACCP logs, cooling/reheating records, and corrective actions — with citations issued to that person, not just the license holder. Already partly in force (2022 Food Code PIC demonstration-of-knowledge; Illinois and Michigan allergen-trained-manager statutes; NYC food protection certificate). Extension to allergen sign-off and to AI-generated temperature/inventory logs requiring human attestation is the visible next step.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Fair-workweek/predictive-scheduling ordinances (NYC, Philadelphia, Chicago, Oregon, Seattle) creating per-violation penalties for schedule changes, plus tip-credit and 80/20 rule enforcement, make the person who approves the final schedule and clopening exceptions the accountable party. If enforcement agencies keep naming the on-site manager in consent decrees, and if algorithmic-scheduling disclosure rules require a human to authorize software-proposed schedules, ownership of the ambiguous call hardens.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Dram-shop and responsible-beverage-service statutes expanding to require a certified manager on premises whenever alcohol is served, with personal administrative liability for overservice (Texas TABC safe-harbor already conditions the defense on certified staff and manager training). Broader adoption of the safe-harbor-conditional-on-certification model raises the requirement from optional to functional mandate.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift with no new law: as scheduling, par-level ordering, variance reporting, forecasting and review responses are absorbed by Toast/Restaurant365/7shifts AI layers, the residual day is no-show coverage, terminations, guest recovery, inspection response and vendor disputes — the tier software cannot execute. This raises measured resistance of the remaining job even as total headcount per store falls.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Little headroom; the physical half is already scored near ceiling. A marginal rise only if kitchen automation (fry robots, conveyor units) adds equipment-supervision and lockout/tagout duties that pull the manager further onto the floor rather than off it.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: diners pay for the food and the room, not for a human general manager, and no buyer segment prices the manager separately. Even with every lever above, the store-level count of these jobs is set by store count and span of control — consolidation of two or three units under one manager, enabled by remote ops dashboards, can shrink the occupation while each surviving role scores higher."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 208110,
        "wage": 52030
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 219160,
        "wage": 54240
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 235470,
        "wage": 55320
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 197010,
        "wage": 56590
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 210680,
        "wage": 59440
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 231100,
        "wage": 61310
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 246070,
        "wage": 63060
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 244230,
        "wage": 65310
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 238430,
        "wage": 69390
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 14.6,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}