{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/forging-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic",
    "soc_code": "51-4022",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 8930,
    "median_annual_wage": 49030
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 39,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 12,
    "embodiment": 16,
    "liability_shield": 2,
    "trust_premium": 2,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Die changeover, shimming to hit tolerance, and dialing in stroke and induction heat on a part that has been run before are still manual and non-scripted, but once the press is dialed in the tending cycle — load billet, cycle, transfer, gauge every tenth part — is exactly what robotic loaders and in-line gauging already do in the newer forge shops, so roughly half the job is scheduled to leave and half isn't.",
    "embodiment": "You are within arm's reach of 2,000°F billets, scale, hammer noise and hydraulic oil mist, aligning dies inside the press bolster and clearing a stuck part from a hot die — a 16 rather than 19 only because the press itself is fixed in place and the work comes to you rather than you working in the open field.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence gates running a forging press; the shop needs a crane or forklift card and OSHA lockout/tagout training at most, and if a part cracks in service the answer sits with the metallurgist and the quality system, not with your signature.",
    "trust_premium": "The forging leaves your cell as a numbered lot in a tote with a heat number on the tag, and the customer receiving it knows the part spec and the PPAP, not your name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a part with heavy scale or a slightly short fill goes to the scrap bin or through, and when to pull the press because the stroke sounds off — real calls that cost the shop money, but bounded by the process sheet, the go/no-go gauge, and a foreman who signs off on scrapping a run."
  },
  "rationale": "The work is hands-on and hot: mounting and aligning dies, adjusting ram stroke and heat settings, loading billets, gauging forged parts, clearing jams — none of which a language model touches. The real threat isn't AI writing but capital investment in servo presses, robotic billet handling, and automated inspection, plus continued offshoring of forge work; that has already shrunk this occupation to under 9,000 US jobs. Setup skill and in-process judgment (reading a scale-covered part, hearing a press go off-tune) are the durable part; tending an already-dialed-in press is not.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps sliding as forge lines automate and consolidate, but the setup-and-troubleshoot core stays human in most US shops through the 2030s — the tending-only jobs are the ones that disappear.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "As robotic billet handling and automated inspection absorb the tending tier, the surviving job becomes die setup, alignment, first-article qualification and troubleshooting off-tune presses — a genuine two-tier occupation where the routine tier is what gets bought away. Watch for job postings shifting from 'press operator' to 'die setter / forge setup technician' at the same plants.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Little headroom: die changes in a hot forge bay, scale-covered part handling, and jam clearing already resist automation, and the remaining automation gains are in handling rather than setup. Score could nudge up only as the residual role concentrates on manual die/tooling work.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Safety-critical forgings (aerospace, defense, nuclear, pressure-containing) already require documented process control under AS9100/NADCAP and Nadcap AC7114 heat-treat and forging audits; if a customer or prime (e.g., a Nadcap-accredited flow-down) names a qualified setup operator who must personally sign the process-parameter and first-article record, rather than only an engineer or quality manager, sign-off attaches to this role. Also watch DFARS/NAVSEA forging traceability requirements naming operator certification.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If plants formalize the operator's authority to stop production on a suspected die crack, lap, or underfill — a documented stop-work authority in the quality manual or union contract, as exists in some USW-represented plants — the consequential-call ownership becomes explicit rather than informal.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: buyers of forgings pay for metallurgical certs and dimensional conformance, never for a human having run the press. The binding constraint here is capital and offshoring, not AI capability, so a higher register score would not by itself mean more jobs — the occupation can become harder to automate and still keep shrinking."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 18300,
        "wage": 38650
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 18330,
        "wage": 38900
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 16320,
        "wage": 39670
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 13730,
        "wage": 41430
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 11500,
        "wage": 44520
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 10650,
        "wage": 46540
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 9170,
        "wage": 46990
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 8760,
        "wage": 49240
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 8930,
        "wage": 49030
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -51.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "riggers",
      "title": "Riggers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 70,
      "median_wage": 62640,
      "overlap": 80,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "sheet-metal-workers",
      "title": "Sheet Metal Workers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 61800,
      "overlap": 77,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Mathematics",
        "Instructing",
        "Equipment Selection"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "control-and-valve-installers-and-repairers-except-mechanical-door",
      "title": "Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 68,
      "median_wage": 74340,
      "overlap": 74,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Installation",
        "Repairing",
        "Active Learning"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}