{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/foundry-mold-and-coremakers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Foundry Mold and Coremakers", "soc_code": "51-4071", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 12790, "median_annual_wage": 48110 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 42, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Hand-ramming a 500-lb cope, setting fragile shell cores by feel, venting and slicking the mold face, then chasing a scab or a run-out after the shakeout are all sequences that need a person reading sand strength and pattern draft in real time — 14 rather than 18 because the sand mixing, blowing, and mold closing steps that eat most of the shift on a Disamatic or automatic flaskless line are already running unattended.", "embodiment": "You are on a hot floor swinging pneumatic rammers, lifting flasks and core boxes, brushing on refractory wash, and working near a pouring stream where sand and silica dust are the ambient condition — 16 not 20 because the pattern, flask, and sand system are fixed shop fixtures rather than a new uncontrolled site each day.", "liability_shield": "There is no state license, no stamped certificate, and no personal sign-off on a mold; when a casting scraps out or a mold breaks under pour, the foundry eats the scrap cost and the quality department owns the disposition, so the 2 reflects only OSHA respirable-crystalline-silica and molten-metal PPE duties that attach to the employer, not to you.", "trust_premium": "The castings ship to a machine shop or OEM that inspects dimensions and never learns which molder made them, so nothing accrues to you personally — the 4 above zero is the internal fact that a jobbing-shop foreman keeps the molder who knows a particular difficult pattern's ramming habits.", "judgment_accountability": "Sand compactability targets, core setting sequence, gating and riser placement, and pour temperature come off the process sheet and the pattern design, so your calls are limited to reading when sand is too dry, when a mold needs a repair versus a rebuild, and when to reject before pouring — real skill, but bounded by a written spec, which is what puts this at 6 and not 10." }, "rationale": "Ramming sand into flasks, setting cores, patching mold defects, and pulling castings in a hot, dusty, uncontrolled shop floor is work language AI cannot touch — the threat here is automated molding lines and robotic core blowers, which high-volume foundries have already installed. The modal worker operates and tends machines rather than hand-building molds, and that machine-tending tier is exactly what integrated automatic molding cells eliminate; the surviving niche is large, low-volume, or complex hand-molded work in jobbing foundries. No license, no signature, no client relationship provides cover.", "outlook": "Employment keeps shrinking as automatic molding lines and printed sand molds absorb the repetitive tier, leaving a smaller, better-paid core of hand-molders and defect troubleshooters in jobbing and heavy-casting shops.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as automatic molding cells (DISA, Sinto, Hunter) absorb the high-volume flask work: what remains in jobbing foundries is one-off large-mold hand ramming, no-bake pit molding, core assembly for complex internal passages, and defect patching on unique patterns — none of which pays back cell tooling at lot sizes of 1-20. If the automatable tier leaves the occupation rather than the occupation leaving the industry, the residual job is judgment-tier hand molding.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "If the surviving work concentrates in pit and floor molding of multi-ton castings — climbing into and around uncaged molds, feeling sand compaction by hand, setting chaplets and cores by eye in a space no fixed robot cell encloses — the physical unpredictability of the remaining task rises rather than falls.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Extension of process-personnel qualification into molding itself: NADCAP AC7004/AC7118 casting audits, ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Section III and NAVSEA/NR-1 requirements for nuclear and naval castings, and DFARS 252.225-7009 specialty-metals sourcing already push named, qualified, records-traceable operators for safety-critical pours. A specification change requiring an individually qualified molder of record to sign the mold-build traveler for Class 1 nuclear or submarine castings — as welders already sign WPS-qualified joints — would create a personal-signature tier.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Narrow and real only in art and architectural casting: bronze sculpture, bell founding, historic-ironwork restoration, and Secretary of the Interior Standards restoration work, where buyers and preservation boards specifically commission hand-built molds from a named foundry. This does not extend to industrial castings, where buyers pay for dimensional conformance and nothing else.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "On single-shot large castings, the molder's call on sand compaction, vent adequacy, core-print fit and whether to pour or rebuild is the last decision before six-figure metal is committed and cannot be undone. If jobbing foundries formalize that call as a documented pre-pour mold release held by the molder — rather than the metallurgist or supervisor — the accountability moves into the role.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays a production occupation with no license, no client of record, and 12,790 workers concentrated in a shrinking domestic foundry base; the levers protect a residual niche of jobbing and art foundries, not the headcount. Realistic ceiling around 60, and the path there involves the occupation getting smaller, not safer." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 13960, "wage": 35140 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 15600, "wage": 35430 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 17590, "wage": 35590 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 16090, "wage": 37140 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 13610, "wage": 37710 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 11330, "wage": 40120 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 11780, "wage": 44300 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 12720, "wage": 45700 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 12790, "wage": 48110 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -8.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "pipelayers", "title": "Pipelayers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 61, "median_wage": 49000, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Coordination", "Repairing", "Reading Comprehension" ] }, { "slug": "riggers", "title": "Riggers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 62640, "overlap": 68, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Equipment Selection", "Coordination", "Reading Comprehension" ] }, { "slug": "rail-track-laying-and-maintenance-equipment-operators", "title": "Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 63, "median_wage": 70070, "overlap": 67, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Operation and Control", "Troubleshooting", "Repairing" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }