{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/fundraisers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Fundraisers", "soc_code": "13-1131", "category": "Business", "us_employment": 111040, "median_annual_wage": 72550 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 42, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 7, "embodiment": 7, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 15, "judgment_accountability": 11 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 7 the balance tips just past the automatable line: the grant calendar, appeal copy, wealth-screening scores, moves-management data entry and gift acknowledgments are all machine-draftable, and what holds the number above 6 is the irreducible cultivation visit, the board-member-plus-prospect lunch, and the live ask where the number changes mid-conversation.", "embodiment": "A 7 reflects that donor meetings, site tours, galas and regional travel put you off the desk several days a month, but the environments are boardrooms, homes and hotel ballrooms rather than anything uncontrolled — nobody's manual dexterity is load-bearing beyond a handshake and a check handoff.", "liability_shield": "CFRE is voluntary and no state requires a licence to solicit — the charity itself files the state charitable-solicitation registration and the Form 990 Schedule G, and it is the CFO and board who sign, so a 2 rather than 0 only because paid-solicitor registration statutes in some states name individuals.", "trust_premium": "15 is right because a seven-figure bequest closes with the person the family has known for four years, not the institution: donors follow development officers to their next employer, and a transition mid-cultivation measurably delays or kills the gift.", "judgment_accountability": "An 11 covers real discretion with a supervisor above it — you decide the ask amount, the timing after a spouse's death, whether to accept a restricted or non-cash gift, and when to walk away from a donor whose conditions compromise the mission — but gift-acceptance policies, the campaign plan and the ED's sign-off bound the largest calls." }, "rationale": "The written half of this job — grant proposals, appeal letters, donor research briefs, LYBUNT segmentation, acknowledgment letters, impact reports — is exactly what current AI drafts at usable quality, and prospect-screening tools already rank wealth capacity better than a human scanning records. What survives is the part that requires a face across a table: cultivating a major donor over two years, judging when and how much to ask, and being the person a family trusts with a legacy gift. Modal worker here is a mid-level development officer whose week splits between screen work and donor meetings, so the job compresses toward relationship management rather than disappearing.", "outlook": "Grant-writing and annual-fund copywriting roles thin out sharply while major-gift and planned-giving officers stay in demand and get more of their pipeline handed to them pre-researched.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: if grant writing, acknowledgments, LYBUNT segmentation and research briefs are fully absorbed by AI, the residual job is major-gift solicitation, planned-giving conversations, and board/volunteer management — work with no usable AI substitute. The role's score rises because the automatable tier is gone, not because AI got worse.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Major and planned giving already turns on a named human relationship; donor-facing disclosure norms would sharpen this. Watch for state charitable-solicitation regulators (NY AG Charities Bureau, California AB 488-style registration rules for platforms) or AFP's Code of Ethical Standards adding a requirement that AI-generated donor communications be disclosed as such — which makes unmarked human contact the premium product.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Gift-acceptance decisions under reputational ambiguity — declining or returning tainted donations (Sackler, Epstein-type cases) — are increasingly formalized in written gift acceptance policies where a named development officer recommends to the board. If institutions push that named-recommender role into policy, the role owns a consequential, defensible call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Narrow route only: professional certification (CFRE) plus state registration of paid solicitors already exists, and some states require a registered individual solicitor to be named and bonded. If registration rules were extended so that a named registered fundraiser must attest to the accuracy of solicitation materials — including AI-drafted appeals — a thin personal-liability hook appears. Nothing like this is currently in motion for in-house development staff.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays a mid-scoring occupation: there is no licensure gate, no physical work, and the headcount justification has always been ratio-of-dollars-raised, which AI-assisted teams can hit with fewer people. The likely outcome is a smaller, more senior occupation with higher per-person scores rather than a more resistant one at current size." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 72920, "wage": 55640 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 75700, "wage": 56950 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 81660, "wage": 57970 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 82140, "wage": 59610 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 82080, "wage": 60660 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 94630, "wage": 61190 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 101730, "wage": 64160 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 105930, "wage": 66490 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 111040, "wage": 72550 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 52.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "personal-financial-advisors", "title": "Personal Financial Advisors", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "median_wage": 105070, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Operations Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "real-estate-brokers", "title": "Real Estate Brokers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 73220, "overlap": 72, "skills_to_close": [ "Quality Control Analysis", "Troubleshooting" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }