{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/gambling-and-sports-book-writers-and-runners/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Gambling and Sports Book Writers and Runners",
    "soc_code": "39-3012",
    "category": "Personal Care",
    "us_employment": 8950,
    "median_annual_wage": 34980
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 27,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 4,
    "embodiment": 8,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 4
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Keying a bet into the terminal, printing and verifying the ticket, calculating parlay payouts off a stored odds table, and posting line moves to the board are all steps a DraftKings app executes in under two seconds without a human — the only reason a 4 isn't a 0 is that a shift still involves physically handling cash drawers, resolving jammed printers, and dealing with the customer who lost a ticket.",
    "embodiment": "You are standing at a window or walking a floor in a casino for eight hours handling cash, chips, and paper slips, but it's a climate-controlled, camera-covered, fixed-layout room with no lifting, weather, or equipment risk — that's why this sits at 8 and not in the teens with a linesman or an HVAC tech.",
    "liability_shield": "Every state requires a gaming registration or key/non-key license and Title 31 currency-reporting training, which is more than nothing, but that license certifies you passed a criminal background check and know when to file a CTR — the book's odds, limits, and any voided wager sit with the sportsbook operator and its licensed director, not with you at the window.",
    "trust_premium": "Regulars may know your name and a runner may build rapport with high-volume players, but the bettor is buying the line and the payout, not you — a 5 reflects that the same wager placed on a phone at 3 a.m. is treated as identical by the customer, which is precisely why the handle moved there.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Your discretionary calls are bounded: confirm the bet before printing, refuse a wager past post time, refuse an underage or self-excluded patron, escalate anything over the house limit or any disputed ticket to a supervisor — the ambiguous decisions (moving a line, accepting sharp action, settling a contested grade) belong to the book manager or risk desk."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — taking wagers, writing and verifying tickets, calculating payouts, posting odds and results, running slips between counter and window — is transaction processing that mobile sportsbook apps and self-service kiosks already do at lower cost. Physical presence at the window and on the floor gives some cushion, and every worker needs a state gaming license, but that license is a background check, not a professional liability shield. Mobile betting legalization has already moved most handle off the counter, and the counter is where this occupation lives.",
  "outlook": "Expect continued shrinkage as mobile apps and kiosks absorb wagering volume; the jobs that remain are floor supervision, compliance, and host roles rather than window writers.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State gaming regulations that name a licensed individual as the required human for specific counter transactions — e.g. Nevada/New Jersey rules or FinCEN Title 31 practice requiring an employee to personally verify ID and complete a CTR/SAR-triggering multiple-transaction log for cash wagers over $10,000, and to personally enforce self-exclusion list matches before a ticket is issued. If a regulator writes 'a licensed writer shall verify' rather than 'the licensee shall verify', the counter role acquires a named-human step that kiosks cannot complete.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Responsible-gaming mandates of the kind in Massachusetts and Ontario, plus proposed federal SAFE Bet Act provisions, that require a trained human to intervene on visible signs of problem gambling and to refuse or limit a wager — pushing discretionary refusal, exclusion-list edge cases, and suspicious-betting-pattern escalation onto the counter worker rather than software.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as kiosks and apps absorb straightforward single-game tickets, leaving the staffed window handling only disputes: voided/graded-wrong tickets, mis-posted lines, expired winning tickets, parlay reconstruction, and large cash payouts requiring tax withholding paperwork. This tier exists today but is thin — the occupation has a genuine judgment tier, just a small one, so the rise is capped.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Cash-heavy floors where the same worker is the physical fallback for kiosk jams, bill-validator faults, ticket-printer failures and armored-carrier drops; if properties keep large cash cages rather than moving to cashless wallets (a live fight, with several tribal and Nevada operators resisting full cashless), the physical custody-of-cash component holds.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this tops out well short of safe: mobile handle has already removed the volume that justified headcount, so licensing and responsible-gaming duties may protect the existence of a role at each property without protecting 8,950 jobs. Trust premium is omitted deliberately — bettors do not choose a sportsbook because a person writes the ticket, and the VIP host relationship business is a different occupation (gaming managers/hosts), not the writer or runner."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 9970,
        "wage": 24750
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7500,
        "wage": 25220
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 7340,
        "wage": 27530
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 7910,
        "wage": 28940
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 8700,
        "wage": 29170
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 7600,
        "wage": 30460
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 8950,
        "wage": 34980
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -10.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "waiters-and-waitresses",
      "title": "Waiters and Waitresses",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 49,
      "median_wage": 35230,
      "overlap": 76,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Service Orientation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "dining-room-and-cafeteria-attendants-and-bartender-helpers",
      "title": "Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 41,
      "median_wage": 33980,
      "overlap": 74,
      "skills_to_close": []
    },
    {
      "slug": "locker-room-coatroom-and-dressing-room-attendants",
      "title": "Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 40,
      "median_wage": 36300,
      "overlap": 73,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Service Orientation",
        "Speaking"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}