{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/gambling-dealers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Gambling Dealers",
    "soc_code": "39-3011",
    "category": "Personal Care",
    "us_employment": 83910,
    "median_annual_wage": 34320
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 54,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 14,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Pitching cards, cutting chips, computing 17-to-1 roulette payouts in your head and calling the game aloud is manual work no text model touches, but electronic blackjack terminals, auto-shufflers and stadium baccarat already do the entire deal-and-pay loop on real floors today — that proven non-AI substitution is what holds this at 13 instead of the high teens.",
    "embodiment": "You stand on your feet the whole 20-and-20, reaching across a live layout to place bets, break chips, spin a wheel and physically control the deck under camera and pit-boss sightlines — hands-on, but in a climate-controlled room with fixed geometry and no weather or unpredictable terrain, which caps it at 14 rather than a linesman's 18.",
    "liability_shield": "A state gaming board card or sheriff's work permit is mandatory and can be pulled for a bad decision, so casinos can't staff a pit with anyone off the street; but you don't sign a payout ticket in your own name — the floor supervisor and the property's license absorb the exposure on a misdeal or a wrong pay, which puts this at 8 rather than in licensed-professional territory.",
    "trust_premium": "On the high-limit tables regulars ask for you by name, tip you directly, and stay at your game because of the pace you set and how you talk them through a losing shoe — but the $10 blackjack pit rotates you every 20 minutes by design, so most of your shift is interchangeable, which is why 12 and not 16.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Procedure covers almost everything you do — house rules on hitting soft 17, when to call the pit for a fill or a color-up, exact hand-clearing motions for surveillance — with real discretion only in reading whether a player is capping a bet or a partner is signaling, and that call gets escalated rather than acted on, so 7."
  },
  "rationale": "Dealing cards, spinning roulette, paying bets and managing chip stacks is dexterous physical work in a controlled room — language AI does none of it, but electronic table games, automated shufflers, stadium roulette terminals and live-dealer streaming already replace dealer headcount without needing any AI breakthrough. The real product is pace, patter and the sense that a person is watching the game, and casinos keep human tables on the high-limit floor precisely because players pay for that. Gaming-board licensing keeps the labor pool controlled but carries no personal sign-off liability, so it slows substitution rather than blocking it.",
  "outlook": "Table count and dealer headcount keep shrinking as electronic and stadium games take the low-limit floor, while human dealers concentrate in high-limit pits, craps, and tourist-experience properties.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "High-limit and baccarat play is already the segment where players demand a live dealer; if casinos formalize this — e.g. marketing 'all-human dealt' salons, or Asian VIP baccarat contracts specifying human dealing and no auto-shufflers — the human-preference share becomes contractual rather than incidental. Live-dealer streaming studios (Evolution Gaming) also monetize the human face explicitly, and their headcount growth is a real, checkable indicator that buyers pay for a visible person.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State gaming regulations that require a licensed human dealer or floor supervisor to be physically present at, and personally accountable for, each live table — e.g. Nevada Gaming Commission or NJ DGE rules capping electronic table games per floor, or minimum live-table counts written into municipal casino licenses (as in some Ohio, Maryland and Illinois host-community agreements) and union contracts. If such minimums are enacted or defended in the next license renewal cycle, substitution is capped by rule rather than preference.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If dispute-resolution authority is pushed down to the dealer rather than up to the pit — dealers formally empowered to rule on ambiguous bet placement, string bets, misdeals and card exposure with the call standing on record for gaming-board audit — the role owns consequential calls. Card-room floor-person duties merging into dealer classification in union job descriptions (Culinary Local 226, UAW-represented Detroit casinos) would be the visible marker.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "If automation absorbs the low-limit, high-volume tier (blackjack, stadium roulette) first, the surviving job is the two-tier judgment layer: reading advantage players, catching collusion, managing intoxicated or aggressive patrons, running complex-side-bet baccarat and poker where dealer-controlled pace and rulings matter. Headcount falls but the residual role is harder to do.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "These levers protect the remaining role's character, not the number of jobs — every mechanism here is compatible with a much smaller dealer workforce concentrated on high-limit and poker floors. Displacement pressure comes from electronic table games and stadium terminals, not language models, so improving AI barely moves this occupation and stalling AI barely helps it."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 98890,
        "wage": 21260
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 67330,
        "wage": 23740
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 64700,
        "wage": 24960
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 71290,
        "wage": 29120
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 80570,
        "wage": 32240
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 82980,
        "wage": 33280
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 83910,
        "wage": 34320
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -15.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "bartenders",
      "title": "Bartenders",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 68,
      "median_wage": 34340,
      "overlap": 64,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Management of Material Resources",
        "Learning Strategies",
        "Active Learning",
        "Complex Problem Solving"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}