{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/gambling-managers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Gambling Managers",
    "soc_code": "11-9071",
    "category": "Management",
    "us_employment": 5030,
    "median_annual_wage": 93220
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 61,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 13,
    "liability_shield": 12,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "An 11 reflects the split: drop counts, hold percentage reporting, comp issuance thresholds, and shift scheduling are already CMS/Bally-Konami functions, while walking a pit to verify a chip fill, reading a table for card-counting or past-posting, and talking a patron down from a disputed toke are still done by a person on the carpet — enough surviving physical-social work to clear the automatable band but not enough to protect the desk half.",
    "embodiment": "A 13 is earned by the fact that the job is measured in floor hours, not office hours — you are physically at the pit or cage for fills and credits, on camera with surveillance during an incident, escorting a self-excluded patron out, and covering a gaming floor of thousands of square feet across a graveyard shift — but it stays at 13 rather than higher because the environment is climate-controlled, mapped, and blanketed with cameras, unlike a rig floor or a job site.",
    "liability_shield": "A 12 rests on the key-employee or gaming-manager licence issued by the state board (Nevada Gaming Commission, NJ DGE, or tribal equivalent), which is held in your name, requires personal financial disclosure, and can be suspended for a Title 31 SAR you failed to file or a minor found at a table on your shift — real personal exposure, but the licence certifies suitability rather than conferring the kind of independent professional privilege a CPA or physician holds.",
    "trust_premium": "An 11 accounts for the premium-player side of the job — knowing which high-limit regular gets what comp, being the face who authorizes a marker or a credit line, and holding relationships with dealers who will tell you about a suspicious partner at third base — but most patrons on the floor never learn your name, so the relationship supplements the product rather than being it.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 14 is right because the calls that land on you have no procedure that resolves them: whether an advantage player is cheating or merely skilled, whether to void a hand and refund or pay a disputed jackpot, whether an intoxicated patron's losses become a regulatory problem, and whether a pattern of structured buy-ins is a Title 31 filing — each decided in minutes, on camera, with the board reviewing it later."
  },
  "rationale": "The reporting half of this job — hold and drop reconciliation, table game performance analytics, labor scheduling, comp tracking, AML/Title 31 report drafting — is already being absorbed by casino management systems and player-tracking analytics that surface anomalies faster than a human reading pit sheets. What survives is floor presence: settling disputed payouts in front of an angry patron, backing up a dealer during a suspected advantage-play incident, deciding when to bar someone, and standing personally in front of a state gaming board as a licensed key employee. Modal worker here runs a pit or a floor at a mid-size property, not a corporate analytics shop, so the embodied and regulatory pieces carry real weight.",
  "outlook": "Headcount thins as analytics platforms and fewer live table pits reduce the number of supervisory layers, but each remaining property still needs licensed humans on the floor who can settle disputes and answer to the gaming board.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Gaming boards already license pit/floor supervisors as 'key employees' (NV Reg 3, NJ CCC), but the shield deepens if a state regulation or FinCEN consent order names a specific on-property licensed individual as personally accountable for SAR-C filing decisions and Title 31 suspicious-activity determinations — the pattern FinCEN used in its individual assessments (e.g., the Tinian Dynasty and Sands-era compliance-officer actions). A rule stating that an automated system's AML alert cannot be dispositioned without a named licensed employee's signature would convert the analytics tool into a decision-support tool with a human on the hook.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Responsible-gaming statutes that require a licensed employee — not a system — to execute self-exclusion enforcement, on-floor intervention, and minor-removal decisions, with license revocation as the penalty. UK Gambling Commission's affordability/interaction rules and several state RG mandates already push toward documented human intervention; a US state codifying 'licensed supervisor must personally verify and log each exclusion contact' is the checkable version.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If tribal/state gaming boards formalize disciplinary exposure for floor decisions — barring an advantage player, voiding a disputed hand, overriding a system payout hold — through published board hearing records where the individual supervisor, not the operator, is the respondent, the role's ownership of ambiguous calls becomes explicit rather than customary. Nevada Gaming Control Board patron-dispute adjudications (NRS 463.362) already require a designated employee's on-scene determination.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier job: as casino management systems absorb hold/drop reconciliation, comp tracking, labor scheduling, and Title 31 report drafting, what remains is the escalation tier — disputed payout adjudication, suspected collusion or advantage play in real time, dealer backup, barring decisions. No new law needed; the score rises mechanically as the clerical tier disappears and the residual day is contested judgment under an angry patron's eyes.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Only route is duty reassignment rather than technology: if properties consolidate surveillance-room review into shared regional centers and push the physical response function down to floor management, the remaining role becomes more purely on-premises presence and physical incident handling. Watch for casino operating agreements or union contracts (Culinary 226, Teamsters at Atlantic City properties) that reclassify pit supervisors as first-responders for gaming incidents.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No credible trust_premium lever. Patrons do not select a property because a human runs the pit, and gaming revenue is indifferent to who dispositions the hold report — the only human-preference signal is VIP/high-limit host relationships, which is a different SOC. Ceiling is roughly the mid-70s: the licensure and judgment dimensions can carry this occupation, but the 5,030-worker headcount is itself the exposure, since analytics consolidation reduces the number of supervisors needed per floor even where each surviving one is harder to replace."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 4450,
        "wage": 74970
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 3240,
        "wage": 75470
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 3660,
        "wage": 76910
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 4800,
        "wage": 80710
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 4590,
        "wage": 82380
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 4620,
        "wage": 85580
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 5030,
        "wage": 93220
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 13,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}