{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/geoscientists-except-hydrologists-and-geographers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers",
    "soc_code": "19-2042",
    "category": "Science",
    "us_employment": 23470,
    "median_annual_wage": 101920
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 55,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 12,
    "liability_shield": 11,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Automated fault picking, log-based lithology classification, and remote-sensing lineament extraction now cover a real fraction of the interpretation workflow, and report boilerplate for Phase I/II site assessments is templated — but core description, outcrop mapping, and deciding where the next hole goes still require a geologist standing on the ground, which is why this sits at 10 rather than 5.",
    "embodiment": "Field seasons put geoscientists on unimproved terrain, drill rigs, mine benches, and offshore platforms doing core logging, sample collection, and rig supervision, but the modal week for most of the 23,470 is at a workstation with the field component seasonal or delegated to technicians — episodic rather than daily exposure puts it at 12, not 17.",
    "liability_shield": "Roughly thirty states license Professional Geologists and require a PG seal on geologic hazard reports, well-abandonment filings, and mine permits, and SEC S-K 1300 / NI 43-101 require a named Qualified Person to sign resource estimates — the 11 reflects that this stamp is mandatory for a specific slice of the work (regulatory filings, reserve reporting) while much industry interpretation and academic work carries no licensure requirement at all.",
    "trust_premium": "Clients buy the reserve number, the hazard map, or the drilling recommendation, not the geologist — though QP designations and expert-witness work in permitting hearings attach a specific name to specific conclusions, which is what lifts this above anonymous deliverable territory to 8.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Assigning a probability to a seismic source, classifying ore into proven versus probable, or declaring a site clean under state closure standards are calls made on sparse, ambiguous subsurface data where the geologist's interpretation drives capital allocation and public safety, and being wrong shows up as a failed slope, a written-down reserve, or a reopened remediation — that ownership of consequence under genuine uncertainty is a 14."
  },
  "rationale": "A large share of the modal geoscientist's week is screen work — seismic and well-log interpretation, GIS map production, geochemical data reduction, literature review, and writing environmental and resource reports — and ML models already do automated fault picking, lithology classification from logs, and remote-sensing lineament mapping at usable quality. What holds is the field half: logging core, mapping outcrops, siting boreholes, supervising drilling, and the seismic-hazard or reserve-estimate calls that a licensed Professional Geologist signs and personally defends. The occupation splits between report-production staff, which compresses hard, and the licensed interpreter who owns the resource number or hazard determination.",
  "outlook": "Interpretation and report-writing headcount shrinks as AI absorbs picking and drafting, while licensed field geologists who sign hazard and reserve determinations stay in demand across mining, critical minerals, and climate-risk work.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Expansion of Professional Geologist licensure requirements: about 30 US states currently license PGs, and several (e.g. Texas, California) already require a PG seal on geologic hazard, mining reserve, and groundwater reports. A route upward is a state board rule (or a change to the Texas BPG/California BPELSG practice acts) explicitly stating that AI-generated interpretations — fault picks, lithology assignments, reserve volumes — must be independently verified and sealed by a licensed PG who assumes personal responsibility, plus adoption of PG-seal requirements in the ~20 states with no licensure. SEC S-K 1300 and Canada's NI 43-101 already require a named Qualified Person to sign mineral resource estimates; tightening QP definitions to bar reliance on unauditable model output would deepen this.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If seismic-hazard and induced-seismicity determinations become litigated more often — as in Oklahoma injection-well suits — and courts or state oil and gas commissions require a named geoscientist of record whose siting and hazard calls are deposable, the consequential-call ownership hardens. Similarly, a USGS/state-survey requirement that National Seismic Hazard Model inputs and CCS storage-permit geologic characterizations (EPA Class VI) name an individual accountable geologist.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: if automated fault picking, log lithology classification, and GIS map production absorb the report-production tier, the residual role is core description, borehole siting, structural model arbitration where seismic and well data conflict, and defending a reserve number to auditors — work with no clean training label. Watch for headcount falling while the surviving job description shifts to 'competent person / QP sign-off and field program design'.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "A growth in mandated physical verification would raise this: e.g. EPA Class VI carbon-storage permitting and critical-minerals permitting reform requiring on-site core logging and independently witnessed drilling supervision rather than desktop characterization. Expansion of CCS and lithium/rare-earth exploration drilling programs increases the share of the week that is outcrop, core shed, and rig floor.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: buyers are oil companies, mining firms, and agencies who purchase a signature and a defensible number, not human authorship — they would accept machine interpretation the moment liability allowed it. Every realistic gain here is liability-driven, and it protects the licensed interpreter tier only; the GIS/report-production half of the occupation has no lever at all."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 28520,
        "wage": 89850
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 29260,
        "wage": 91130
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 29200,
        "wage": 92040
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 27890,
        "wage": 93580
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 23620,
        "wage": 83680
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 25230,
        "wage": 87480
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 24620,
        "wage": 92580
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 22510,
        "wage": 99240
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 23470,
        "wage": 101920
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -17.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}