{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/hazardous-materials-removal-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Hazardous Materials Removal Workers",
    "soc_code": "47-4041",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 51710,
    "median_annual_wage": 49450
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 68,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 12,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 12
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Glovebag removal on a live steam line, wetting friable asbestos to spec, cutting and taping 6-mil poly to irregular joists, and hand-scraping mastic off subfloor are one-off improvisations in spaces no two of which are alike — 17 rather than 20 only because the air sampling, chain-of-custody logging, and manifest paperwork around the work are already going digital.",
    "embodiment": "Kneeling in a 30-inch crawlspace in a full-face supplied-air respirator and Tyvek at 95°F, tearing out pipe lagging overhead by feel, working off scaffolding in a partially demolished mill — uncontrolled, unmapped, and structurally unstable is the normal jobsite, which is as close to the ceiling as any trade gets.",
    "liability_shield": "AHERA accreditation, state asbestos worker/supervisor licences, lead RRP certification, and RCRA hazmat training are legally mandatory and inspectable on site, but the personal exposure sits mostly with the licensed supervisor and the contractor's clearance certification — a 12 not an 18 because a rank-and-file abatement worker's card can be revoked yet they aren't the one signing the clearance.",
    "trust_premium": "Work is won on bid, licence status, and insurance certificates, not on the homeowner knowing your name; the 8 reflects repeat relationships with GCs, industrial hygienists, and property managers who call the crew they know won't fail a clearance test.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Calling whether a containment has lost negative pressure, whether a suspect material needs to stop work pending bulk sampling, or when to pull a crew on a heat/confined-space judgment are real on-the-spot decisions with exposure consequences — held to 12 because the work plan, air-clearance thresholds, and OSHA 1926.1101 methods are written before anyone suits up."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is stripping asbestos insulation in crawlspaces, building negative-pressure containments, wearing supplied-air respirators in demolition zones, and bagging and manifesting regulated waste — none of which a language model or a current robot can do. AI touches only the paperwork edge: air-monitoring logs, waste manifests, disposal documentation, and scheduling. Federal EPA/AHERA and OSHA accreditation plus state asbestos and lead licensing require a trained, certified human physically on site, which is a real regulatory moat, though it protects the trade rather than any individual worker.",
  "outlook": "Demand holds or grows through the 2030s as mid-century buildings are renovated and lead pipe and asbestos remediation funding flows; the only AI erosion is in documentation and compliance clerking, which never was the bulk of the job.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "EPA/state expansion of the accredited-supervisor role beyond AHERA asbestos into demolition-adjacent streams already being rulemade: EPA's 2024 chrysotile asbestos Part 1 risk-management rule and TSCA lead-paint dust-lead standards, plus proposed state PFAS- and lithium-battery-waste handling licensure, would put more waste categories under a named certified individual who personally signs the containment clearance and the RCRA/DOT manifest with personal liability for a false entry",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State board or OSHA rule requiring the accredited on-site competent person to countersign AI-generated air-monitoring and clearance data before a containment is released for reoccupancy — analogous to existing third-party clearance-inspector separation-of-duty rules in Massachusetts and New York asbestos regs",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Unexpected-condition calls becoming the formal, documented core: stop-work authority over friable-material discoveries, unmapped lead or PCB caulk, and structural instability written into GC contracts and insurer builder's-risk conditions as the licensed supervisor's personal call rather than the project manager's",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is limited but real: if manifest generation, air-log transcription, and disposal-facility scheduling are fully automated, the residual day is containment engineering, unexpected-material identification, and confined-space entry decisions — the judgment tier of a two-tier job",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route — buyers are GCs and building owners procuring on price and license validity, not paying for a human abater by preference. Embodiment is effectively maxed. Realistic upside is concentrated in liability_shield and judgment_accountability, which protect the licensed trade and the supervisor tier, not the entry-level laborer doing bag-out."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 43260,
        "wage": 41400
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 44000,
        "wage": 42030
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 44240,
        "wage": 43900
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 44010,
        "wage": 45270
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 44240,
        "wage": 46300
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 46780,
        "wage": 46690
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 49960,
        "wage": 47280
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 50570,
        "wage": 48490
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 51710,
        "wage": 49450
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 19.5,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}