{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers", "soc_code": "53-3032", "category": "Transportation", "us_employment": 2062040, "median_annual_wage": 58640 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 48, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 9, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "The 11-hour driving shift itself is the part Aurora and Kodiak are already running unmanned on I-45, which caps this well below 14 — but pre-trip inspections under 49 CFR 396.13, chaining up in a Wyoming snowstorm, blindside-backing into a 45-degree dock in a Brooklyn alley, and load securement per 393.100 still require hands and eyes at the vehicle, which is why it sits at 12 rather than in the automatable band.", "embodiment": "You are in a moving 80,000-lb machine in weather, traffic, and construction zones you do not control, climbing on a flatbed to throw tarps and crank winch straps, cranking landing gear, and pulling fifth-wheel pins in mud — 15 rather than 18 or 20 only because most hours are spent seated in a climate-controlled cab on paved highway, not because the work isn't physical.", "liability_shield": "A Class A CDL with a DOT medical card, endorsements for hazmat/tanker/doubles, and a personal HOS logbook that can be audited back at you puts this above certification-preferred territory — but it lands at 9, not 15, because carrier and shipper insurance absorbs the crash exposure, the motor carrier holds the operating authority, and FMCSA is actively writing exemption pathways for driverless CMVs, so the licence gate is administrative rather than a personal professional liability you carry the way a surveyor stamps a plat.", "trust_premium": "Freight is tendered by brokers off a load board to whichever truck is cheapest and closest; the receiver cares about the seal number and the appointment window, not which driver shows up, and a 4 rather than 0 reflects only the dedicated-lane and specialized-haul work where a plant guard knows your face and a shipper requests you by name.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding to shut down before a bridge you don't like the look of, refusing an unsafe load, or overriding dispatch to park during freezing rain are real calls with your CDL behind them — but dispatch sets the route, ELDs enforce the clock, and the customer sets the appointment, so most of the day is executing someone else's plan, which is 8 and not 13." }, "rationale": "Almost nothing a trucker does is text-on-screen work, so language models barely touch the job — but this is the one occupation where the automation threat comes from the vehicle itself, and driverless freight is already running paid loads on Sunbelt interstates. The long-haul, dry-van, hub-to-hub segment is the most exposed; the surviving work is the messy end — backing into tight urban docks, tarping and strapping flatbed, hazmat and tanker runs, local multi-stop delivery, and being the person who signs for the freight and deals with the customer. CDL, medical certification, and hours-of-service rules force a qualified human into the seat today, but that is a regulatory shield tied to current FMCSA rules, not a permanent one.", "outlook": "Long-haul highway seats shrink meaningfully by the mid-2030s as driverless lanes expand across Sunbelt corridors, while flatbed, tanker, and local multi-stop driving stays human-staffed and pay diverges sharply between the two tiers.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "A state-level requirement that a CDL-holding human be physically aboard any Class 8 autonomous truck operating on public roads — California's AB 316 (vetoed 2023, reintroduced concepts since) is the live template, and similar bills have appeared in Indiana, Massachusetts and New York, often backed by Teamsters lobbying. If enacted in a few large states, the licensed human becomes legally mandatory rather than merely practical.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "FMCSA declining to grant exemptions from rules written around a human driver (49 CFR 392 inspection duties, 396.13 pre-trip, hazmat attendance rules in 177.834 requiring an attendant for tank cars/cargo tanks), so driverless operation stays barred in hazmat and tanker segments specifically.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Commercial auto insurers pricing driverless freight without an aboard operator as uninsurable or requiring a named CDL operator on the policy for nuclear-verdict exposure; a single large adverse verdict against an autonomous carrier would harden this.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: this occupation genuinely has two tiers. If hub-to-hub dry van linehaul is absorbed by driverless operation, the residual job is flatbed tarping and load securement, tight urban dock backing, multi-stop local, oversize/permit loads and hazmat — work with high embodiment and no current automation path. The measured task_resistance of the surviving job rises even as headcount falls sharply.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Contract and shipper terms that make the driver the accountable party for load securement and cargo acceptance — refusing an unsafe load, signing the BOL with damage exceptions, deciding to shut down in weather. If liability for cargo claims stays with the human who signed rather than the carrier's software vendor, this dimension rises.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever pulled, this is a headcount story more than a score story: state human-aboard mandates could keep a person in the seat while the work becomes supervisory, and none of these levers protects the long-haul dry-van segment where most of the two million jobs sit. Trust premium has no plausible route — freight buyers purchase capacity and on-time delivery, not human drivers, and no shipper has ever advertised a human-driven load." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 1748140, "wage": 42480 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 1800330, "wage": 43680 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 1856130, "wage": 45260 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 1797710, "wage": 47130 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 1903420, "wage": 48310 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 1984180, "wage": 49920 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 2044400, "wage": 54320 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 2070480, "wage": 57440 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 2062040, "wage": 58640 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 18, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "bus-drivers-transit-and-intercity", "title": "Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 58, "median_wage": 59050, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Persuasion", "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "locomotive-engineers", "title": "Locomotive Engineers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 60, "median_wage": 81410, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Learning Strategies", "Active Listening", "Active Learning", "Critical Thinking" ] }, { "slug": "signal-and-track-switch-repairers", "title": "Signal and Track Switch Repairers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 92460, "overlap": 66, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Selection", "Quality Control Analysis", "Installation", "Equipment Maintenance" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }