{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-brickmasons-blockmasons-stonemasons-and-tile-and-marble-setters/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters", "soc_code": "47-3011", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 14170, "median_annual_wage": 47550 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 48, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Carrying 8-inch CMU up a ladder, mixing mortar to the mason's preferred consistency by feel, wet-cutting tile on a saw, and chipping out hardened thinset are unstructured manipulation tasks on a surface that changes every course — an 18 rather than a 14 because there is no scripted, repeatable subtask in the day that a fixed-position machine could take over.", "embodiment": "Nearly every hour is spent on scaffold planks, in trenches, on unfinished floors, in silica dust and whatever weather the pour schedule demands, hauling material the mason cannot reach — a 19 leaves room only for the rare indoor tile job in a conditioned building.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses masonry helpers; you can be put to work with an OSHA 10 card at most, and the general contractor's or mason contractor's licence covers the work you touch, so nothing you do carries your name — the 2 rather than 0 reflects only that scaffold and silica training requirements exist on paper.", "trust_premium": "The foreman knows which helper shows up sober, keeps the mud coming, and doesn't break bullnose — that reputation travels within a crew and a local hall, which is worth a 5, but the homeowner paying for the patio never learns your name and the work is bid without reference to you.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide how to stack a load so it doesn't tip and when a mix looks too stiff, but the mason sets the layout, the string line, the joint profile, and the grout choice — a 4 rather than a 10 because the consequential calls are made above you and corrected on the spot." }, "rationale": "Mixing mortar, hauling block and stone, setting up scaffolding, cutting tile, and cleaning excess grout are physical tasks in dusty, uneven, weather-exposed environments that no deployed robot handles at cost. The exposure here is not language AI — it's the absence of any credential, signature requirement, or client relationship, which leaves the role wage-exposed and dependent on the crew's demand rather than on the helper's own defensible skill. Score reflects the modal helper, not the mason they may become.", "outlook": "The physical work stays human through the 2030s; the real risk is staying a helper — pay and stability come from crossing into the licensed-trade journeyman tier.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Helpers being pulled inside a credentialed structure: OSHA's scaffold rule already requires a trained 'competent person' for erection/alteration, and the respirable crystalline silica standard (29 CFR 1926.1153) requires a written exposure control plan with a designated competent person. If states or large GC insurers began requiring that every worker who erects scaffold or operates a wet saw hold a documented, individually-issued card (as NY City's Local Law 196 site-safety training did for all construction workers), the helper role acquires a named credential tied to a person rather than a crew.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Registered-apprenticeship mandates on public work — e.g. state prevailing-wage statutes and PLAs that require a fixed journeyman:apprentice ratio and count only registered apprentices toward it — convert 'helper' into a legally recognized apprentice slot with wage steps. Already happening on federally funded IIJA/CHIPS jobs; broader state adoption would extend it.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Historic-preservation and restoration work where the Secretary of the Interior's Standards and NPS Preservation Briefs govern mortar matching and stone repointing: tax-credit-certified projects require documented hand methods, and owners pay for identifiable craft labor. Growth of this segment (or state historic tax credits requiring certified restoration crews) raises what a buyer is specifically paying a human for — but this touches a minority of helpers, not the modal residential tile job.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "If semi-automated block-laying and mortar-dispensing rigs (SAM100-class, Construction Robotics) or tile-setting gantries actually deploy on large flat-wall jobs, the hauling/feeding tier goes first and what remains for the helper is edge work, cut-ins, corners, existing-building irregularity and machine tending — a genuine two-tier split. This raises the residual score only for those retained, and shrinks headcount.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 1 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Silica and heat rules that place stop-work authority on the worker: Cal/OSHA's heat illness standard and proposed federal heat rule, plus union contract language giving any crew member the right to halt work for dust or scaffold conditions without retaliation, make the helper the person who owns a consequential call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "No route to a personal signature-and-liability regime: masonry licensing attaches to the contractor entity, and no US state licenses masons individually, so liability_shield realistically caps in the mid-single digits. Trust premium is structurally capped because the buyer contracts with a GC or masonry sub and never selects the helper. The honest ceiling is roughly 55-60, and it comes from credentialing and apprenticeship wage floors, not from AI being unable to do the work — it already can't." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 24660, "wage": 31710 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 24340, "wage": 33380 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 23480, "wage": 35410 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 21410, "wage": 36990 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 18210, "wage": 37870 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 17730, "wage": 39430 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 16460, "wage": 42470 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 15660, "wage": 46480 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 14170, "wage": 47550 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -42.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "insulation-workers-floor-ceiling-and-wall", "title": "Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 59, "median_wage": 49120, "overlap": 89, "skills_to_close": [ "Persuasion", "Negotiation" ] }, { "slug": "cement-masons-and-concrete-finishers", "title": "Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 58, "median_wage": 57020, "overlap": 88, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Personnel Resources", "Quality Control Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 87, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operations Monitoring", "Reading Comprehension" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }