{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-carpenters/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers--Carpenters", "soc_code": "47-3012", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 21680, "median_annual_wage": 43780 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 43, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Hauling 12-foot studs up a stair tower, bracing a wall while the carpenter shoots plates, stripping snap ties off green concrete forms and hand-digging around a footing are irreducibly physical, sequence-dependent tasks that no software touches — the 16 rather than 19 reflects that some of the cut list, layout dimensions and material takeoff you work from is already generated upstream, and prefab panels arriving pre-assembled delete the very tasks you'd otherwise be doing.", "embodiment": "Your workday is outdoors on uneven mud and rebar in whatever weather the schedule ignores, moving between ladders, scaffold planks and open floor edges with loads in both hands — an 18 rather than 20 only because a share of helper hours happen in shops, garages or enclosed remodels rather than open steel and dirt.", "liability_shield": "Nothing in this title requires a license or certificate; OSHA 10 or 30 might be a site condition and fall-protection or scaffold-user training gets logged, but the permit is pulled in the contractor's name, the inspector signs off on the journeyman's work, and no code or statute makes your signature necessary to anything — hence the 1 rather than a clean 0.", "trust_premium": "The carpenter you're paired with knows whether you show up early, keep the cut station stocked and hold a line without being told twice, and that reputation travels between crews and gets you called back — but the homeowner never learns your name, and the GC can swap you for another helper from the hall on Monday, which caps this in the low single digits.", "judgment_accountability": "You cut to marks someone else made, stack material where the lead tells you, and set scaffold per the manufacturer's frame configuration — the small discretion you do own is real safety judgment (refusing an unsafe lift, calling out an unbraced wall, spotting a missing plank), and that's what puts this at 4 instead of 0." }, "rationale": "Almost nothing a carpenter's helper does — carrying lumber, holding forms in place, sweeping the deck, pulling nails, setting up scaffolding and cutting stock to marked lines — can be done by a language model, so direct AI exposure is near zero. The real pressure is different: no license, no client relationship, no ownership of decisions, and rising factory prefabrication and panelized framing that move framing labor off the jobsite into controlled shops where automation actually works. This is a stepping-stone title, and its safety depends entirely on whether the helper converts to a journey-level carpenter.", "outlook": "The role persists on every jobsite but pays like an entry rung; over ten years more framing volume moves to prefab shops, so the helpers who advance to journey carpenter or specialize in remodel and formwork keep earning while the rest see thinner hours.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Expansion of certification-gated helper tasks: OSHA already requires a qualified/competent person for scaffold erection (1926.451) and a certified signalperson for crane picks (1926.1428). If state boards or GC insurers push further — e.g. mandatory card-carrying certification for fall-protection anchor installation, shoring/formwork bracing, or powder-actuated tools, with the cardholder named on the daily log — parts of helper work become person-attached rather than body-attached. Watch state OSHA plans (WA, CA, OR) and GC prequalification checklists.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Registered-apprenticeship mandates on subsidized work: the IRA clean-energy prevailing-wage/apprenticeship provisions (Treasury final rule, 2024) require a labor-hour percentage performed by registered apprentices and journeyworker-to-apprentice ratios. If similar apprentice-ratio conditions spread to state infrastructure and affordable-housing funding, the helper slot becomes a contractually required headcount on the job rather than a discretionary one.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift toward field retrofit and remediation: if panelized/prefab absorbs new-build repetitive framing, the residual on-site work concentrates in cut-and-fit against out-of-plumb existing structures, panel setting, seam closure and punch-list correction — the tier prefab shops cannot pre-cut. This raises resistance for the surviving on-site roles while shrinking their count; the score moves but the headcount does not.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal stop-work authority written into contract: some union agreements and large-GC safety programs (and CPWR-promoted safety-climate language) give any worker documented authority to halt an activity for imminent hazard, with the call logged. Where that authority is contractual and the log is auditable, the helper owns a consequential call rather than only executing directions.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment at 18 is effectively maxed and is the only strong score; the realistic ceiling is roughly the low 50s. Trust premium has no plausible route — buyers hire the contractor, never the helper, and no client will ever pay a premium for a specific human carrying lumber. The dominant risk is not AI doing this work but prefabrication relocating it into shops with fewer helpers, and none of the levers above reverse that." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 33740, "wage": 29860 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 33020, "wage": 30880 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 32920, "wage": 33060 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 30900, "wage": 34280 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 27540, "wage": 36690 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 24580, "wage": 37490 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 21770, "wage": 39380 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 24610, "wage": 41600 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 21680, "wage": 43780 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -35.7, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Coordination" ] }, { "slug": "septic-tank-servicers-and-sewer-pipe-cleaners", "title": "Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 49880, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Troubleshooting", "Operations Monitoring", "Equipment Maintenance" ] }, { "slug": "rail-track-laying-and-maintenance-equipment-operators", "title": "Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 63, "median_wage": 70070, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operations Monitoring" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }