{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-construction-trades-all-other/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers, Construction Trades, All Other", "soc_code": "47-3019", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 24770, "median_annual_wage": 42670 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 45, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 5 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Carrying 80-lb bundles up a ladder, bracing a header while the carpenter nails it off, and shoveling out a trench after the excavator leaves are tasks nobody has digitized because each one happens in a different spot on a site that changed shape yesterday — the 16 rather than 20 reflects that some of the fetch-and-stage work is being trimmed by prefab panels and cut lists delivered to the site.", "embodiment": "You work outdoors in whatever weather the schedule ignores, on unfinished floors, around open holes, moving materials by hand or wheelbarrow — an 18 rather than 20 only because a share of helper hours are spent in enclosed or nearly-finished interiors sweeping, sorting scrap, and pulling material to the room where the trade is working.", "liability_shield": "No state requires a card to hand a journeyworker a level; OSHA 10 or 30 and a fall-protection orientation are site-entry paperwork the contractor arranges, not a credential you hold and can be personally sanctioned against, so nothing legal ties your name to the finished work.", "trust_premium": "Superintendents ask for warm bodies from the pool or the hall, not for you by name, and the 4 instead of 0 is that a foreman who knows you show up sober at 6:30 and can find the right size hole saw will request you back on the next job.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide sequencing at the scale of which pallet to break down first and when the mud is too stiff; grade, layout, fastener schedule, and shoring all come down from the journeyworker or the plans, and the 5 covers stop-work calls on obvious hazards you're expected to flag rather than resolve." }, "rationale": "Hauling materials, holding and positioning members, mixing mortar, cleaning sites, and staging tools for journeyworkers are physical tasks in cluttered, unpredictable environments that language models cannot touch and current construction robotics cannot economically replace. The exposure is not AI doing the work — it is that this role carries no license, no signature, no client relationship, and almost no discretion, so it holds no defensive position beyond the body doing it. Scored for the modal helper on a residential or light-commercial crew, not a near-journeyworker apprentice.", "outlook": "The physical work will still be done by hands in 2035, but pay and headcount stay pinned by low barriers to entry — the helpers who advance are the ones who convert the job into a licensed trade card within a few years.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Registered-apprenticeship or state licensing rules that make helper hours a legally countable, documented prerequisite for journeyworker licensure — e.g. states adopting mandatory apprentice registration and ratio rules (1 journeyman : N apprentices) enforced on permitted jobsites, as in California electrical certification and several IBEW/NECA agreements. That does not make the helper personally liable, but it makes the position legally required to be present and filled by a specific registered person, which is the same defensive function.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "OSHA or state-plan rules requiring a designated, certified person for specific site functions the helper actually performs — trained competent-person signalperson for crane lifts (already federal under 29 CFR 1926.1428), certified flagger, confined-space attendant, fire watch after hot work. Where a crew's helper holds those cards, a named credentialed body is mandatory on the task.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is weak here but real at the margin: as layout, takeoff and material-order sequencing get automated, the residual helper day concentrates in unstructured handling, protection of finished work, and site problem-solving that neither software nor rebar-tying/bricklaying robots address. This raises the score only slightly because the current score is already near ceiling.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 1 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal delegation of stop-work authority to every crew member, written into general-contractor safety programs and owner-controlled insurance program (OCIP) requirements on large projects — a mechanism ENR-covered GCs and some carriers already impose. A helper who can and must halt a lift owns a consequential call under ambiguity.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this role stays in the 50s. There is no route to a trust premium: the buyer never meets the helper, never chooses one, and pays for the finished assembly. The real ceiling is that the credentials above are attached to the person, not the job title — a helper who gets them is on the path out of 47-3019, and the modal unregistered helper on a residential crew gains nothing from a rule written for large commercial sites with an OCIP." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 23140, "wage": 29660 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 26320, "wage": 30510 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 28530, "wage": 31910 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 27850, "wage": 33360 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 27300, "wage": 36690 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 27920, "wage": 37820 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 27250, "wage": 40220 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 25510, "wage": 40760 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 24770, "wage": 42670 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 7, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }