{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-painters-paperhangers-plasterers-and-stucco-masons/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons", "soc_code": "47-3014", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 7490, "median_annual_wage": 40470 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 44, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Taping an inside corner, feathering a skim coat on a wall that isn't plumb, cutting in a ceiling line freehand, and dragging scaffold planks through a stud-framed hallway are sequences no software touches — the 16 rather than 20 reflects that some of the day is genuinely repetitive volume work (spray priming flat new-construction walls, mass sanding) that drywall-finishing rigs and automated sprayers already do faster than a helper with a pole sander.", "embodiment": "Every hour is spent on a ladder or scaffold in an unconditioned building, carrying 50-lb mud buckets, kneeling to mask baseboard, breathing joint-compound dust and solvent vapor, and working around whatever the framers and electricians left in the way — an 18 rather than 20 only because a fair amount of it is interior, out of weather, on a floor someone else already poured.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses a painter's helper; you work under someone else's contractor license, sign no permits, pull no inspections, and the only card you might carry is OSHA 10 or a scaffold-user briefing that any employer can hand out in a morning.", "trust_premium": "The homeowner learns the lead painter's name and the crew chief's phone number; you are the second truck in the driveway, dispatched by whoever staffed the job that week, and nobody calls back asking for you by name — the 5 rather than 0 is because a regular on a small residential outfit does get repeat placement from a super who knows their work.", "judgment_accountability": "The journeyman specifies the coat schedule, the color, the grit, and where the scaffold goes; your calls are limited to how much water goes in the mud and when a patch is dry enough to sand, and a wrong one costs a re-sand, not a callback or a claim." }, "rationale": "Almost nothing this job does happens on a screen: mixing mud, taping and sanding drywall, masking and drop-clothing rooms, setting and moving scaffolding, hauling buckets, cleaning sprayers and brushes. Current robotics cannot navigate a half-finished house or feather a patch on an uneven wall, so the AI threat here is near zero — the real exposure is that helpers hold no license, own no decisions, and have no client relationship, which makes them replaceable by other people and squeezed by any tool that raises a journeyman's output per hour. Score reflects a role protected by physicality but structurally low-leverage.", "outlook": "In ten years this work is still done by hand on-site, but headcount tracks construction cycles and immigration policy far more than AI — the helpers who advanced into licensed or specialty-finish tiers will be the ones with rising wages.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State-level lead paint and silica rules that name the individual worker, not just the contractor: EPA RRP already requires a certified renovator on-site for pre-1978 housing, and OSHA's respirable silica standard (1926.1153) requires trained personnel for drywall sanding controls. If states moved RRP-style certification from 'one certified person per firm' to 'each worker handling disturbance must hold a card' — as some states have done for asbestos abatement workers — helpers acquire a named credential that cannot be filled by an uncertified body.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Registered apprenticeship indenture becoming a hard condition of bidding on public work. Several states (e.g. Washington, Oregon, Illinois) already attach apprentice-utilization percentages to public contracts; if such rules expand and specify ratios of indentured helpers to journeymen, the helper slot becomes contractually mandatory on funded jobs rather than discretionary headcount.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift if spray-and-sand automation (drywall finishing rigs like Canvas, or robotic sprayers) takes the flat, open-wall repetitive tier. What remains for the helper is cut-in, closets, stairwells, patch feathering on out-of-plane substrate, and rig tending — all the geometry the machines are sold as not doing. This raises the resistance of the remaining hours even as total hours fall.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Stop-work authority written into a collective agreement or site safety program, giving the helper a personally logged call on substrate moisture, scaffold condition, or ventilation before coating. IUPAT agreements and some GC safety programs already contain named stop-work language; where the helper's sign-off is the record, the role owns a consequential call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: helpers have no client contact, are not named on the invoice, and no homeowner has ever paid extra for a specific taper's hands. The physicality scores are already near maximum, so the honest headroom here is roughly 10-12 points, all of it institutional, and it depends on credentialing and contract language that treats the helper as a named person rather than a warm body." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 11000, "wage": 28760 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 10600, "wage": 29960 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 10850, "wage": 31340 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 9500, "wage": 31640 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 8940, "wage": 33370 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 8630, "wage": 36080 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 7700, "wage": 37010 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 7220, "wage": 38140 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 7490, "wage": 40470 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -31.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "insulation-workers-floor-ceiling-and-wall", "title": "Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 59, "median_wage": 49120, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Management of Financial Resources", "Management of Material Resources", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "refuse-and-recyclable-material-collectors", "title": "Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 55, "median_wage": 49690, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Reading Comprehension", "Writing" ] }, { "slug": "landscaping-and-groundskeeping-workers", "title": "Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 56, "median_wage": 39150, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Mathematics", "Technology Design", "Science" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }