{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-pipelayers-plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers--Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters", "soc_code": "47-3015", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 44330, "median_annual_wage": 42360 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 50, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Threading pipe on a portable die head, chipping out concrete around a stub-up, humping 20-foot lengths of cast iron down a trench, and torching rust off joints are tasks no language model touches — 17 rather than 20 only because the plan-reading, materials-takeoff, and permit-paperwork errands helpers get sent on can be shifted to software.", "embodiment": "Your workday is in open trenches, crawlspaces, unconditioned mechanical rooms and half-built slabs — trench-shoring hazards, wet clay, overhead pipe, confined-space entry — which is exactly the uncontrolled, unmapped, unrepeatable environment robotics fails in, hence 19 and not a controlled-shop 13.", "liability_shield": "No plumbing license, no journeyman card, no signature on the inspection sheet: state plumbing codes put the licensed plumber's name on the permit and the work, so a helper carries almost no personal legal exposure and correspondingly no legal barrier to being swapped out — the 3 rather than 0 reflects OSHA trench and confined-space training cards some employers require.", "trust_premium": "The homeowner or GC talks to the licensed plumber, not to you; a helper is assigned by the shop and interchangeable between crews from one day to the next, so the 5 comes only from the journeyman who wants the same helper back because you already know how he stages his fittings.", "judgment_accountability": "You're told which trench, which fitting, which torch setting, and code compliance on slope, venting, and joint approval is called by the journeyman and the inspector — the 6 covers the real but narrow calls you do own, like stopping work when a trench wall starts sloughing or flagging a buried line before you dig." }, "rationale": "Almost nothing in this job is screen work: you're hauling pipe into trenches, cutting and threading, holding fixtures while the journeyman sets them, cleaning up the site, and digging where machines can't. Robotics cannot do that in a muddy trench or a tight mechanical room, so AI displacement risk is genuinely low. The exposure is different in kind — helpers hold no license, own no decisions, and are paid near the bottom of the trade, so the real risk is being cheap, replaceable labor rather than being replaced by software.", "outlook": "Demand for hands in trenches and mechanical rooms holds through the 2030s on water infrastructure and retrofit work; the helpers who convert hours into a journeyman license capture the wage growth, and those who don't stay stuck at helper pay.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State plumbing boards or DOL apprenticeship rules that make a registered apprentice (not an unregistered 'helper') the only person legally allowed to assist on licensed work — i.e. converting helper headcount into registered apprentice slots with documented hours toward licensure. Several states (e.g. Oregon, Massachusetts) already restrict who may work under a licensed plumber and at what ratio; tightening ratio rules or banning unregistered helpers on medical-gas, backflow, or fuel-gas work would pull this role inside the licensing perimeter.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Medical gas (NFPA 99 / ASSE 6010) and backflow-prevention certifications becoming mandatory for anyone touching those installs, including assistants, so the helper holds a personal credential that can be revoked.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Trench safety enforcement shifting personal duty downward: OSHA competent-person requirements for excavations over 5 ft (1926 Subpart P) being enforced so that a second qualified person on-site — often the helper — signs off on shoring and soil classification before entry. That makes a consequential, individually attributable call part of the role.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is weak here because the routine tier of this job is physical, not clerical — but if prefab/modular skids move cut-and-thread work off-site, the remaining field content becomes fit-up, tolerance chasing, and retrofit work in existing buildings, which is the harder tier. Watch for the share of hours spent on renovation/retrofit versus new construction.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: buyers contract with the licensed plumber or the mechanical contractor and never select the helper, so no one will ever pay a premium for a specific human in this slot. The honest read is that this occupation's exposure is wage compression and substitution by other cheap labor, not software — and the only real upward lever is exiting helper status into registered apprenticeship, which raises the score by changing the occupation you're in rather than by hardening this one." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 54790, "wage": 29890 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 54710, "wage": 30980 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 58400, "wage": 32100 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 55740, "wage": 33590 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 45930, "wage": 35720 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 46760, "wage": 36340 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 45300, "wage": 37650 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 43640, "wage": 39270 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 44330, "wage": 42360 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -19.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "glaziers", "title": "Glaziers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 57080, "overlap": 88, "skills_to_close": [ "Operations Monitoring", "Reading Comprehension", "Operation and Control", "Operations Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Operations Monitoring", "Operation and Control", "Instructing" ] }, { "slug": "tile-and-stone-setters", "title": "Tile and Stone Setters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 55690, "overlap": 84, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Instructing", "Operations Analysis", "Quality Control Analysis" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }