{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/helpers-roofers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Helpers--Roofers", "soc_code": "47-3016", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 6030, "median_annual_wage": 44160 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 19, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 5 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Hauling 80-pound shingle bundles up an extension ladder, prying off felt and nails with a spud bar, and sweeping magnets over a lawn for stray fasteners are physical sequences with no digital analogue at all — the 19 rather than 14 reflects that even the paperwork-adjacent parts of the job (measuring squares, staging material) get done by the journeyman, so there is almost nothing here a model could touch.", "embodiment": "A 6:12 pitch in July with hot asphalt underfoot, changing wind, skylight openings, and rotten decking you find by feeling it flex is the definition of an uncontrolled environment, and nothing about the work happens off the roof — this is the ceiling of the scale, not merely near it.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses roofing helpers; the contractor's license, the OSHA 1926.501 fall-protection duty, and the workmanship warranty all attach to the employer, so the only thing you personally carry is the injury risk — the 3 rather than 0 acknowledges OSHA 10 cards and fall-protection training being commonly required on commercial jobs.", "trust_premium": "Homeowners hire the roofing company and remember the salesman or the crew lead, not the helper carrying bundles; the 5 rather than 0 is because you are physically at someone's house for days and repeat GCs do request specific reliable hands by name.", "judgment_accountability": "Nail spacing, courses, flashing laps, and tear-off sequence are all called by the roofer you are handing material to, and your calls are limited to things like where to stage the bundle or when the tarp needs to go down before rain — real but low-stakes, which is a 5 rather than a 10." }, "rationale": "Carrying bundles of shingles up a ladder, tearing off old roofing, cleaning debris, and holding materials for a roofer are tasks no language model touches and no current robot performs on a steep, hot, irregular roof deck. The exposure here is not AI replacing the work — it's that the role is unlicensed, low-discretion, and easily filled, so wages and bargaining power stay thin while the roofer above you keeps the credential and the liability. Score reflects the modal helper, not a helper already running crews.", "outlook": "Demand holds through the 2030s on storm repair and re-roofing cycles, but the money migrates to licensed roofers and estimators who own the customer conversation — helper wages stay flat unless you climb out of the helper tier.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Being pulled inside a credentialed structure: OSHA's proposed federal heat injury and illness prevention standard (NPRM published July 2024) requires a designated heat safety coordinator/monitor on outdoor sites, and OSHA fall protection already requires a named 'competent person' for roof work. If a state adopts a rule that the ground/roof crew must include a separately certified person holding a card that can be suspended — e.g., Washington or Oregon outdoor heat rules extended with individual certification, or a state roofing contractor license (as in Florida, California) requiring documented registered apprentices at fixed ratios — the helper slot becomes a named, revocable credential rather than an interchangeable body.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal designation of the helper as fall-protection spotter, anchor-point inspector, or heat-illness buddy under a written site safety plan, with the designation named in the job hazard analysis that an insurer or general contractor audits. This already happens on large commercial jobs and union work (United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers apprenticeship standards); the change to watch is builder's-risk or workers' comp carriers making the named-spotter role a condition of coverage on residential re-roofs.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "Capped near 65. Trust premium has no realistic route: homeowners buy a roof and a warranty from the contractor, and no buyer has ever specified a human helper. Any gain must come from liability and named-role safety duties, and both attach to the crew, not the individual, so they raise the floor for wages more than they raise displacement resistance." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 9550, "wage": 28500 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 8630, "wage": 30390 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 8960, "wage": 32110 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 8390, "wage": 33260 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 6830, "wage": 36360 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 5790, "wage": 37020 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 4540, "wage": 38620 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 5170, "wage": 40590 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 6030, "wage": 44160 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -36.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Operations Analysis", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "tile-and-stone-setters", "title": "Tile and Stone Setters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 55690, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Operations Analysis", "Reading Comprehension" ] }, { "slug": "glaziers", "title": "Glaziers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 57080, "overlap": 72, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Operations Analysis", "Reading Comprehension", "Installation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }