{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/hoist-and-winch-operators/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Hoist and Winch Operators", "soc_code": "53-7041", "category": "Transportation", "us_employment": 2600, "median_annual_wage": 56450 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 47, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 10 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 13 the split is real: repeat-cycle hoisting on a fixed shaft or a bin-feed drum is already run by PLC and automated skip controls in modern mines, but a logging yarder pulling turns off broken ground, or a hoist landing an irregular load in a congested shaft bottom, still needs someone watching the line, adjusting speed by feel, and reacting to a hang-up — which is why it sits above the automatable band rather than at 16 like true field-judgment machine work.", "embodiment": "16 reflects that the job is a shaft collar, a landing, or a hillside cable setting — you hook and unhook loads, walk the drum to inspect wire rope for broken wires and kinks, grease sheaves, work in dust, weather, and noise, and clear fouled lines by hand — and only the sit-in-the-house control portion is enclosed, keeping it short of the 19-20 of fully unstructured field work.", "liability_shield": "5 is right because MSHA hoistman qualification (30 CFR Part 49/57 requirements for shaft hoisting) and employer-specific certification exist and matter in mines, but there is no portable, individually-held license like the NCCCO crane card — you are qualified by the operator on the site, and the mine or logging contractor carries the exposure, not you personally.", "trust_premium": "3 because the yarder engineer or hoistman is dispatched by the shift boss to whichever machine needs running; the crew below wants the load landed the same way regardless of who is in the seat, and no customer ever asks for you by name.", "judgment_accountability": "10 covers the calls you actually own — whether to lift when the signal is unclear, when a rope has enough broken wires to pull it out of service, backing off a hang-up before you snap a line — but hoisting procedures, signal codes, and load limits are written down and posted, so you are exercising discretion inside a documented envelope, not setting the envelope." }, "rationale": "The work is physical and site-based — rigging loads, reading signals from a spotter, feeling a drum load up, inspecting cable and brakes on a mine shaft hoist or logging yarder — and language models do none of that. The exposure is not chatbots but automation of the machine itself: programmable logic control, automated shaft hoists in modern mines, and remote/teleoperated winches already displace the operator's seat, and the occupation is small (~2,600) and shrinking. No license carries the job the way a crane operator's NCCCO card does, and nobody hires you for the relationship.", "outlook": "Headcount keeps drifting down as automated and remotely operated hoists take the routine cycles; the operators left will be the ones who also rig, inspect, and hold crane credentials.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "MSHA extending 30 CFR Part 57 shaft-hoisting rules (already requiring a designated hoistman for man-hoisting) to explicitly bar unattended automated operation when persons are in the conveyance, or an OSHA/ASME B30.7 (base-mounted drum hoists) revision requiring a qualified hoist operator to sign daily inspection and load-test records personally rather than an automated log", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State mine-safety licensing of hoistmen (as in Pennsylvania anthracite and West Virginia certification schemes) becoming a condition of workers' comp coverage or the insurer's underwriting for shaft operations", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift: once PLC-controlled hoists handle routine cycles, the remaining seat is abnormal-condition work — rope slip, brake fade, stuck conveyance, emergency man-riding evacuation — where the operator owns the call under ambiguity; formalized if MSHA requires a named person authorized to override automatic control", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Growth of the non-automatable end of the trade — mobile logging yarders on steep unmapped terrain, marine/salvage winching, entertainment rigging hoists over live audiences — where the load path is unrepeatable and rigging is hand-done each time", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Rope and drum condition assessment becoming a required operator duty under nondestructive-testing rules (wire rope electromagnetic inspection interpretation), pulling diagnostic judgment into the job rather than a separate inspector", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyer is a mine, mill, or contractor purchasing lifted tonnage, and no customer will ever specify a human at the drum. The dominant force is headcount, not score — 2,600 workers and shrinking means automation removes seats rather than reshaping them, so even a strong liability shield protects a very small remainder." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 47, 45 ], "run_verdicts": [ "EXPOSED", "EXPOSED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 3080, "wage": 43210 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 3180, "wage": 45490 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 4800, "wage": 59720 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 4460, "wage": 62610 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 2610, "wage": 52300 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 2440, "wage": 58950 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 2230, "wage": 55950 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 2480, "wage": 52310 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 2600, "wage": 56450 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -15.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "operating-engineers-and-other-construction-equipment-operators", "title": "Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "median_wage": 59850, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Technology Design", "Operation and Control", "Equipment Maintenance" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Technology Design" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }