{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/home-appliance-repairers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Home Appliance Repairers",
    "soc_code": "49-9031",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 32150,
    "median_annual_wage": 50990
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 11
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Diagnosing why a Whirlpool dryer trips its thermal fuse means feeling for a blocked vent, checking belt tension by hand, and clearing lint from a blower housing — the only piece software can hand over is the fault-code table, which is why this sits at 17 rather than 20.",
    "embodiment": "You work inside someone else's kitchen: pulling a built-in oven out of cabinetry, tipping a fridge to reach the compressor, lying on a basement floor to chase a leaking water line, in spaces no two of which are laid out the same, which is as uncontrolled as an environment gets short of a rooftop or a live utility line.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no appliance-repair licence in most states; the credentials that do bind you are narrow — EPA Section 608 for cutting into a sealed refrigerant system and a gas-appliance ticket in some jurisdictions for reconnecting a range — so parts of the job are legally fenced but the majority of calls anyone can legally take.",
    "trust_premium": "Repeat and referral work is most of an independent tech's book because homeowners will not let a stranger take apart a $2,000 refrigerator on a Tuesday afternoon, but the 12 rather than 16 reflects that a large share of calls arrive through warranty dispatch, Sears/GE contracts, or a landlord's work order where the customer never chose you.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The real call is repair-versus-replace on a nine-year-old machine — quoting $480 in parts and labour against a $700 new unit — plus the condemnation judgment on a scorched control board or a cracked tub, decisions that are consequential to the customer's wallet but rarely involve life-safety ambiguity outside gas and refrigerant work."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is pulling the back off a 9-year-old front-loader in a cramped laundry closet, reading error codes, testing a control board with a multimeter, and swapping a drain pump — none of which language models touch. AI will absorb the diagnostic-lookup layer (fault code interpretation, parts identification, scheduling, warranty paperwork), which is real but is a minority of billable time. The genuine threat to this occupation is economic, not algorithmic: cheap replacement appliances and sealed, non-serviceable designs shrink the repair market faster than any software does.",
  "outlook": "Demand for the work holds where appliances are expensive or gas/refrigerant-regulated, but the low-end repair market keeps eroding to replacement, so the technicians who thrive in 2035 will be certified specialists on premium and commercial equipment rather than generalists chasing $80 dryer calls.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Flammable-refrigerant conversion: as US manufacturers move refrigerators and heat-pump dryers to R-290/R-600a hydrocarbons and A2L blends under EPA's AIM Act HFC phasedown, servicing sealed systems falls under EPA Section 608 certification plus UL/state fire-code handling rules. If state boards or insurers require a 608-certified (and hydrocarbon-endorsed) tech to sign off on any sealed-system or gas-line reconnection, the signature becomes legally mandatory rather than customary.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State licensing for gas appliance connection — several states/municipalities already require a licensed gas fitter to reconnect ranges and dryers. Extension of that requirement statewide, or insurer refusal to pay fire claims where an unlicensed person made the connection, pulls a legally-named liable human into a large share of jobs.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: this job has two tiers. If AI absorbs fault-code lookup, parts ID, scheduling and warranty paperwork, the residual day is entirely in-closet teardown, intermittent-fault chasing on 9-year-old machines, and improvised fixes on discontinued parts — the tier no software touches. Already near ceiling, so headroom is small.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If extended-warranty administrators and home-warranty insurers (Assurant, Asurion, AHS) keep pushing repair-vs-replace authority onto the field tech with a documented, auditable determination the insurer relies on to deny or pay a claim, the role owns a consequential financial call under ambiguity rather than executing one.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Right-to-repair implementation (Minnesota Digital Fair Repair Act, NY Digital Fair Repair Act, EU spare-parts ecodesign rules) forcing OEMs to release diagnostics and parts to independents. If manufacturers respond by formalizing authorized-service tiers that condition warranty validity on a named certified tech, buyers pay specifically for that credentialed human.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "task_resistance and embodiment are already at 17/19 — near ceiling, so almost all headroom is institutional. The dominant risk is not scored here: sealed, non-serviceable designs and sub-$500 replacement appliances shrink the market regardless of how high these dimensions go. A shrinking safe occupation is still shrinking."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      67
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 32250,
        "wage": 38160
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 31130,
        "wage": 39270
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 31100,
        "wage": 40260
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 27640,
        "wage": 41610
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 28120,
        "wage": 44320
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 29370,
        "wage": 46000
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 29950,
        "wage": 47170
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 31940,
        "wage": 49410
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 32150,
        "wage": 50990
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -0.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}