{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/instructional-coordinators/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Instructional Coordinators", "soc_code": "25-9031", "category": "Education", "us_employment": 227760, "median_annual_wage": 77440 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 42, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 8, "embodiment": 7, "liability_shield": 6, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 10 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Crosswalking a unit to state standards, rewriting pacing guides after a calendar change, and producing the benchmark data slides for the November leadership meeting are text-transformation jobs a model does in minutes, which drags this to 8 despite the classroom observation cycles and PD facilitation that still need a body in the room.", "embodiment": "You are in buildings — walking classrooms during observation windows, hauling materials to PD sessions, sitting at the back of a third-grade guided reading group — but it is a school, not a roof or a rig, so the physical component is scheduling and presence rather than anything a machine physically cannot do, which puts it at 7 not 13.", "liability_shield": "A teaching license plus an administrator or curriculum-supervisor endorsement is standard in most states for the district-level posting, and that credentialing floor is why this is 6 rather than 2 — but no statute requires a licensed human to sign a curriculum map or adoption recommendation, so nobody's certificate is at risk when the program flops.", "trust_premium": "Teachers let you into their rooms and tell you what is actually failing only because you built that over two years, and principals call you before they call the vendor — but you are also the person who arrives with the mandate from central office, so the relationship is real leverage without being the deliverable, hence 11.", "judgment_accountability": "Recommending the $2M reading adoption and deciding which teacher needs support versus documentation are genuinely consequential calls, but they run through adoption committees, board votes, and the assistant superintendent who actually signs, so you own the analysis rather than the decision — 10, not 15." }, "rationale": "The document half of this job — writing curriculum maps, aligning units to state standards, building pacing guides, drafting PD slide decks, summarizing benchmark assessment data — is exactly what language models already do at usable quality, and publishers are shipping AI-generated standards-aligned materials directly to districts. What survives is the human half: sitting in a third-grade classroom watching a struggling teacher, running the follow-up coaching conversation, and owning the recommendation when a district spends $2M on a new reading program. Most coordinators hold a teaching license and many need an administrator credential, but no law requires a human signature on a curriculum document, so the credential is a hiring filter rather than a liability shield.", "outlook": "Expect fewer coordinators writing curriculum and relatively more doing classroom-based coaching and adoption oversight, with the writing-heavy roles consolidated or absorbed by publishers' AI-authored materials.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "A state instructional-materials review rule that names a licensed individual — not a committee — as the required signer that AI-generated or AI-assisted curriculum was reviewed for standards alignment, bias, and accessibility. Mechanisms already in motion: Texas SBOE's Instructional Materials Review and Approval (IMRA) process under HB 1605, California's SBE adoption/IMET reviews, and the wave of state 'AI in education guidance' documents (over 25 states now) that so far only recommend human review. If any of those recommendations becomes a rule requiring a named credentialed reviewer of record who can be sanctioned by the licensing board, the credential turns from hiring filter into shield.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Accessibility liability attaching personally to the curriculum reviewer: DOJ's 2024 Title II web/ADA rule (WCAG 2.1 AA, compliance deadlines 2026-2027) plus OCR resolution agreements pushing districts to designate a specific credentialed person who certifies digital instructional materials as accessible before adoption.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Adoption-accountability provisions in science-of-reading and curriculum-transparency statutes that require a district to identify the individual who recommended a program and to file a written justification and post-adoption efficacy report to the state (as in some ESSA evidence-tier and Mississippi/Tennessee literacy-law reporting regimes). Owning a documented, auditable $2M call under ambiguity is exactly what raises this dimension.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Collective bargaining or state PD rules specifying that instructional coaching, classroom observation, and post-observation conferences must be conducted by a credentialed human coach and may not be delivered or scored by an automated system — parallel to existing contract language restricting video/algorithmic teacher evaluation (Chicago CTU, UTLA-type clauses) and to state bans on AI as sole evaluator. Also Title II-A spending rules being written to require human-delivered coaching hours.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier job: if publishers' AI-generated aligned materials absorb the drafting tier (maps, pacing guides, PD decks, benchmark summaries), the remaining role is classroom observation, coaching conversations with resistant or struggling teachers, and vendor evaluation — work current models cannot do at usable quality. This rises only where districts retain the coaching FTE rather than cutting the line item, which is the open question.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "A shift in the job description toward mandated in-classroom observation minimums (some state literacy-coach statutes, e.g. Florida and Mississippi coaching models, specify minimum hours of in-class modeling and observation per coach). Codified on-site hours make the role harder to run remotely or from dashboards.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this occupation caps out in the low 60s. The headcount risk is budgetary, not capability-based: instructional coordinator lines are district central-office overhead, historically the first cut when ESSER-style funds expire, and no liability rule protects a position that is eliminated rather than automated. A liability shield also protects the function, not the count — one signer can certify materials for a whole district." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 157490, "wage": 63750 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 163900, "wage": 64450 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 176690, "wage": 66290 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 174900, "wage": 66970 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 184740, "wage": 63740 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 198660, "wage": 66490 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 207270, "wage": 74620 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 210850, "wage": 74720 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 227760, "wage": 77440 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 44.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "special-education-teachers-secondary-school", "title": "Special Education Teachers, Secondary School", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 73, "median_wage": 74260, "overlap": 88, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "education-administrators-kindergarten-through-secondary", "title": "Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "median_wage": 105870, "overlap": 87, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Financial Resources", "Quality Control Analysis", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Negotiation" ] }, { "slug": "secondary-school-teachers-except-special-and-career-technical-education", "title": "Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "median_wage": 72040, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Science" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }