{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/insulation-workers-floor-ceiling-and-wall/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall", "soc_code": "47-2131", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 44440, "median_annual_wage": 49120 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 59, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 9, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Cutting batts to fit around a junction box, blocking, and a rats-nest of romex in a 22-inch joist bay — then belly-crawling to the eave to do it again — is work no machine on the market performs, and the only tasks a model can take are the plan takeoff and the material order, which is why this sits at 18 rather than a mixed score.", "embodiment": "The job is done in 130-degree attics, on knees in crawlspaces with 30 inches of headroom, on ladders and stilts against ceilings, wearing a respirator against fiberglass and isocyanates — uncontrolled, unlit, unconditioned spaces that put this at the top of the physical band, held off 20 only because some work happens in open new-construction framing before drywall.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses a floor/ceiling/wall insulator; the general contractor pulls the permit and the code inspector signs off on the insulation, and the 5 reflects only the real credentials that do exist — OSHA 10/30, respirator fit testing, and SPF applicator training required by foam manufacturers for warranty — none of which the law makes you personally answerable under.", "trust_premium": "Repeat work comes from the builder or the remodeler who keeps calling the same crew because you show up when the drywallers are scheduled and don't leave gaps, which is a real relationship worth 9 — but the homeowner rarely knows your company name, the bid is usually won on square-foot price, and insulation subs get swapped between subdivisions without the buyer noticing.", "judgment_accountability": "Real calls exist — where to leave clearance around recessed cans and flues, when a cathedral ceiling needs baffles for ventilation, whether a substrate is too damp for closed-cell foam — but R-value, depth, and vapor-barrier placement are specified by IECC and the plans, so the discretion is troubleshooting inside a spec rather than owning the spec, which lands it at 8." }, "rationale": "Nearly all of the work — crawling attics and crawlspaces, fitting batts around wiring and pipes, spraying foam into irregular stud bays, taping vapor barriers — happens in cramped, non-standard spaces that today's robotics cannot navigate, so AI touches almost none of the hands-on hours. What AI does absorb is the office layer around the job: takeoffs from plans, R-value and energy-code calculations, material bidding, and scheduling. The vulnerability is not automation of the installer but commoditization: no license is required, the decisions are mostly procedural, and pricing pressure plus prefabricated and panelized envelope systems can thin crew hours per house.", "outlook": "Employment holds or grows modestly on retrofit and energy-code demand through the 2030s, but the estimating and bidding side shrinks to a fraction of its current staffing while the physical install stays human.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State adoption of blower-door/air-leakage verification tiers (IECC 2021 §R402.4.1.2) that require a named, credentialed installer-of-record to sign the insulation installation certificate, plus spray-foam-specific licensing on the model of Massachusetts' SPF applicator rules and EPA's proposed diisocyanate worker-certification framework under TSCA. If an individual crew member's credential number must appear on a certificate the code official accepts, and reinspection liability attaches to that name, this moves materially.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer-driven route: builder's-risk and E&O carriers requiring documented Grade I installation (RESNET Chapter 3 grading) by a certified installer before covering moisture/mold claims traced to envelope defects — already a live condition in some HERS-rated and Passive House projects.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Growth of performance-guaranteed retrofit contracting — utility and IRA/HOMES-rebate programs that pay on measured energy savings rather than square footage, plus Passive House and Pearl-certification work where the buyer selects a named crew with an air-tightness track record. Buyers paying for a specific installer's blower-door numbers is a real premium, distinct from commodity batt pricing.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift toward diagnostic retrofit: if panelized/prefab envelopes absorb the routine new-construction batt tier, the surviving work is existing-building air sealing where the installer decides sequencing around knob-and-tube wiring, recessed cans, unvented roof assemblies, and vapor-drive direction — calls where being wrong causes condensation and mold. Watch for the retrofit share of insulation employment rising relative to new-build.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal designation of a moisture/vapor-control responsibility in code commentary or in ASTM/ABAA standards making the installing contractor — not the designer — accountable for assembly drying capacity in unvented roofs and interior retrofit of masonry walls.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "task_resistance (18) and embodiment (19) are already near maximum and have no headroom; the whole realistic movement is institutional. Even fully realized, licensing for insulation is fragmented state-by-state and historically weak — spray foam is the only sub-trade with credible momentum, so a large share of batt and blown-in work likely stays unlicensed and commodity-priced regardless." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 31100, "wage": 37050 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 31840, "wage": 38480 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 33550, "wage": 40380 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 32780, "wage": 41690 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 30360, "wage": 39880 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 33130, "wage": 45380 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 38510, "wage": 47540 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 38610, "wage": 48680 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 44440, "wage": 49120 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 42.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Installation" ] }, { "slug": "tree-trimmers-and-pruners", "title": "Tree Trimmers and Pruners", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 50960, "overlap": 72, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Instructing", "Operation and Control", "Science" ] }, { "slug": "electricians", "title": "Electricians", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 80, "median_wage": 63190, "overlap": 51, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Troubleshooting", "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }