{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/insurance-appraisers-auto-damage/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage",
    "soc_code": "13-1032",
    "category": "Business",
    "us_employment": 11560,
    "median_annual_wage": 78240
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 37,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 5,
    "embodiment": 10,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 6,
    "judgment_accountability": 8
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Writing a line-item estimate in CCC ONE or Mitchell from photos of a struck quarter panel is the job's daily volume, and the labor times, paint hours, and part prices you key in are already database lookups an ML model does faster — which is why carriers now route a majority of drivable, sub-$5k claims through photo apps without an appraiser touching them at all.",
    "embodiment": "The 10 reflects a split week: half of it is at a desk in an estimating platform, the other half is standing in a body shop or salvage yard with a flashlight and paint gauge checking for pushed frame rails, crushed unibody, or airbag deployment that a claimant's cell phone photo will never show — physical, but in shops and lots, not on a roadside in traffic.",
    "liability_shield": "Roughly a dozen states (FL, MA, CT among them) license auto damage appraisers and Massachusetts requires a personal in-person inspection above a dollar threshold, but the carrier — not you — is the party bound by the policy and named in a bad-faith suit, so the licence gates who may write the estimate without making you personally answerable for it.",
    "trust_premium": "Your working relationships are with a handful of shop managers you negotiate supplements with repeatedly, which has real value, but the claimant meets you once, does not choose you, and cares only about the number — no book of business follows you if you change carriers.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide repair-versus-replace on a bumper cover, whether to allow a shop's blend time, and when a vehicle crosses the total-loss threshold — real calls with dollars attached, but bounded by the carrier's guidelines, the ACV report, and state total-loss formulas, and reviewable by a supervisor or appraisal clause arbitration."
  },
  "rationale": "The core loop — look at damage photos, identify damaged panels, pull labor times and part prices from CCC/Mitchell/Audatex, and write an estimate — is exactly what photo-AI triage tools already do at usable quality, and carriers have been pushing claimants toward self-service photo estimates for years. What holds is the physical side: teardown inspections, spotting hidden structural or frame damage a photo hides, verifying salvage and total-loss condition, and arguing supplements face-to-face with body shop managers. A handful of states license auto damage appraisers and a few require in-person inspection above a dollar threshold, which is a real but narrow and politically erodible shield.",
  "outlook": "Headcount shrinks materially over ten years as photo estimating handles routine drivable claims, leaving a smaller field force focused on teardowns, totals, supplements, and disputes.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State insurance departments extending or newly enacting licensed-appraiser statutes (currently a handful of states, e.g. Massachusetts 212 CMR 2.00 requiring a licensed appraiser for physical inspection above a dollar threshold, Rhode Island, Connecticut) to require a licensed human appraiser to personally sign any estimate produced by photo-AI, or to mandate in-person re-inspection before a total-loss declaration. NAIC model work on AI in claims and state AI-in-insurance bulletins (Colorado SB21-169 implementing regs, NY DFS Circular Letter 7/2024) create a hook where an accountable licensed reviewer is named per file.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Unfair-claims-practice enforcement or class litigation over AI-generated undervaluation (the wave of suits over Audatex/CCC/Mitchell total-loss valuation methodology, and state DOI market-conduct exams) pushing carriers to designate a named human appraiser as the decision-owner on total-loss, diminished-value, and supplement denials — so the ambiguous calls, not the routine estimate, become the job.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: if photo triage absorbs the sub-$3k drivable claims entirely, the surviving role is teardown-verification, hidden structural/frame damage, ADAS calibration and OEM repair-procedure disputes, and supplement negotiation — genuinely a second tier this occupation already contains. Rising ADAS/EV content (battery-pack damage assessment, OEM position statements requiring specific procedures) enlarges that tier.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "If insurer or state rules require physical teardown verification before total-loss or structural repair sign-off — or if EV battery-pack thermal-risk inspection protocols (as pushed by NFPA guidance and OEM position statements) become a required in-person step — field inspection share of the day rises.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyer is the carrier, not the claimant, and the carrier is the party actively removing the human. Even with strong licensing shields, the headcount can shrink while scores rise — one licensed signer can countersign hundreds of AI estimates."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 16150,
        "wage": 62100
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 15200,
        "wage": 62520
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 13750,
        "wage": 63270
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 13220,
        "wage": 65550
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 11430,
        "wage": 62680
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 11430,
        "wage": 69380
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 8670,
        "wage": 74520
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 7790,
        "wage": 76650
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 11560,
        "wage": 78240
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -28.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}