{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/landscaping-and-groundskeeping-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers",
    "soc_code": "37-3011",
    "category": "Facilities",
    "us_employment": 952640,
    "median_annual_wage": 39150
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 56,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 18,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 3,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Pruning around a mature Japanese maple, hand-digging a broken irrigation lateral, blowing leaves out of a bed line, and clearing a walkway after an ice storm are all one-off improvised motions in cluttered terrain — an 18 rather than a 14 because even the most repetitive task (turf mowing) only automates on large open flat lawns, not the trimmer-and-blower work that fills most of the day.",
    "embodiment": "The entire job is outdoors in heat, rain, mud and cold, on slopes, around parked cars, tree roots, fences, dog waste and buried lines, hauling mulch and running gas-powered equipment — there is no version of this performed from a chair, which is what a 20 means.",
    "liability_shield": "No licence gates entry; the pesticide applicator certification some states require for spraying is held by one crew member or the company, and the 3 rather than 0 reflects that plus OSHA/equipment training — but nothing that stops an owner replacing you with a machine or an unlicensed hire.",
    "trust_premium": "Homeowners on a recurring residential route do come to expect the same person who knows which beds get cut back and where the sprinkler heads hide, and that repeat familiarity is worth an 8 — but the contract sits with the company, the estimate comes from the office, and clients switch vendors on price without ever learning the crew's names.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide how low to scalp in drought, whether a limb is dead or dormant, and when soil is too wet to walk equipment across — a 7 because those calls are real but reversible in a season, made against a route sheet and a foreman, with no one downstream depending on your sign-off."
  },
  "rationale": "Mowing, edging, mulching, pruning, planting, snow removal and irrigation repair are physical work in uneven, weather-exposed, obstacle-filled terrain — none of it is text or screen work, so language AI barely touches it. The real pressure is robotic, not cognitive: autonomous commercial mowers already handle large flat turf, and route/crew scheduling and estimating are being software-ified, which squeezes headcount per acre rather than eliminating the trade. Scores land in EXPOSED only because there is almost no licensure, little client relationship at the crew-worker level, and little consequential discretion — the modal worker executes a route plan.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds up through the 2030s because the work is physical, but autonomous mowers and scheduling software will shrink crew sizes on large commercial turf and shift value toward pruning, irrigation, and hardscape specialists.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State pesticide/herbicide rules that require a state-certified commercial applicator to be physically present and personally sign the application record for every treated site, rather than a supervisor certifying remotely for many crews. Several states (e.g., CA DPR's licensed QAL requirements, NY 7-day notification and certification rules) already run this structure; extending presence-and-signature to fertilizer/nutrient management under Chesapeake-Bay-style nutrient applicator laws would pull more crew-level work behind a license.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Municipal tree ordinances that condition any pruning or removal on a public or heritage tree on a signed assessment by an ISA-certified arborist with TRAQ qualification, with liability for failure attaching to the signer — plus insurer requirements that tree-work claims be defended only where a certified assessor signed off. Ordinances of this type exist in many CA and Southeast cities.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Backflow-prevention and cross-connection rules requiring a certified tester to sign annual irrigation backflow certificates, and state irrigation contractor licensing (TX and CA models) extended to routine repair rather than only new installation.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier split: if autonomous mowers take open turf, the residual job concentrates in detail pruning, bed work, irrigation diagnosis, storm cleanup, plant health diagnosis and slope/obstacle edges — tasks robots handle worst. Watch fleet mix at large firms (BrightView, Yellowstone) for headcount per acre falling while the remaining role is described as horticultural technician rather than mower operator.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Municipal or HOA stormwater and water-restriction regimes that make the on-site crew lead the accountable party for irrigation scheduling decisions, runoff control and nutrient timing under drought orders — i.e. discretionary calls with fines attached, as in Southwest water districts' restricted-watering enforcement.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth in native/ecological restoration and organic land care contracts (NOFA Organic Land Care accreditation, school and municipal pesticide bans) where buyers pay for a named accredited practitioner's plant judgment rather than a mowing route. This lifts only the specialist slice, not the modal mowing crew.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and cannot rise; the ceiling here is that most of the 950k workers are in unlicensed maintenance crews where the buyer is a property manager purchasing acreage coverage, not a person. Licensure levers raise the score for the applicator/arborist/irrigation slice while leaving the mow-blow-and-go tier exposed to machine substitution."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 912360,
        "wage": 27670
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 913480,
        "wage": 29000
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 912660,
        "wage": 30440
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 872370,
        "wage": 31730
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 892450,
        "wage": 34430
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 914230,
        "wage": 35890
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 929930,
        "wage": 37360
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 943430,
        "wage": 38090
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 952640,
        "wage": 39150
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 4.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}