{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/layout-workers-metal-and-plastic/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic",
    "soc_code": "51-4192",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 5970,
    "median_annual_wage": 63870
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 37,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 15,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 3,
    "judgment_accountability": 8
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Flat-pattern development, bend deductions and nesting layouts are solved problems in SolidWorks and SigmaNEST, but somebody still has to transfer those coordinates onto a 20-foot plate with scribe, prick punch, height gage and surface plate when the shop has no CNC marker — that split between automated math and manual transfer is what holds this at 10 rather than in the resistant band.",
    "embodiment": "You work standing over layout tables and raw stock in an active fab shop — flipping plate, chalking and soaping surfaces, climbing on weldments to mark centerlines, dealing with mill scale, burrs and material that arrived out of flat — which is uncontrolled enough for 15, short of 18-20 only because the work stays inside a shop with the part brought to you rather than out on structures in weather.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence, no journeyman card required, no stamp on the layout — the welder's certification and the QC inspector's sign-off carry the paper, and your marks are checked downstream before anything is cut, which is why this sits at 1 rather than 5.",
    "trust_premium": "Your output is scribe lines and punch marks that the burner, brake operator or fitter follows; the next shift can read them without knowing who made them, and the small residual score reflects only the shop-floor credibility that gets your call believed when you flag a drawing error.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide how to orient a pattern to dodge a rolling defect, how much to add for kerf and springback, and whether to shift a datum when the plate came in oversize — real calls, but made against a released print and a tolerance block, with the engineer and QC owning anything that changes the design, which puts it at 8 rather than mid-teens."
  },
  "rationale": "The calculation half of this job — reading blueprints, computing dimensions, developing flat patterns and nesting layouts — is exactly what CAD/CAM and automated nesting software already do, which is why this occupation has shrunk to under 6,000 workers. What survives is physical: scribing and punch-marking reference lines on real stock, building templates, and catching the mismatch between the drawing and the warped or mis-sized plate actually sitting on the table. The modal worker in a fab shop is protected by hands and eyes on metal, not by any credential or client relationship.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps eroding as CAD/CAM absorbs the layout math; the workers who stay are the ones folded into CNC setup, fitting, or inspection roles inside the same shop.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: as nesting/CAD-CAM absorbs all routine flat-pattern and dimension work, the residual job becomes reconciling as-built stock against drawings — verifying warped, mill-tolerance-out, or weld-distorted plate and re-deriving layout on the spot. This tier resists automation because it requires measuring the actual object, not the model. Watch for job postings retitled toward 'dimensional inspection' / 'first-article layout' duties.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Growth of one-off and repair-side work — shipyard and pressure-vessel repair, structural retrofit, legacy-part fabrication where no CAD model exists and layout must be lifted off a distorted existing assembly in a confined space. If the shrinking occupation concentrates in repair/refit fab shops (Navy sub/carrier maintenance backlog contracts) rather than production shops, the residual embodiment share rises.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "AWS D1.1 / ASME Section VIII fabrication regimes already require documented dimensional verification before welding on code work; if AWS or ASME code committees, or a Navy NAVSEA fabrication spec, add an explicit requirement that a named certified layout/dimensional inspector sign the fit-up dimensional record — rather than allowing a CAM-generated report — the signature attaches to a person. Currently the signing party is usually the CWI or QC inspector, not the layout worker, so the realistic route is convergence of the two roles.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Formal ownership of the scrap/reject call: if shop quality systems (AS9100 or NADCAP audit findings on aerospace fab) require a named individual to authorize deviation when stock is out of tolerance and layout must be adjusted, the layout worker becomes the accountable party for material disposition on high-value plate and forgings.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to trust_premium — buyers purchase finished fabricated parts and never learn who scribed the lines. The occupation's floor is set by hands-on-metal work in shops too small or too custom to automate, not by any institutional protection; at ~6,000 workers the headcount trend is already the dominant fact and none of these levers reverse it."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 8550,
        "wage": 46310
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 8170,
        "wage": 47900
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 8150,
        "wage": 49940
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7570,
        "wage": 52300
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 6840,
        "wage": 51690
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 6890,
        "wage": 58260
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 6660,
        "wage": 62270
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 5610,
        "wage": 61870
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 5970,
        "wage": 63870
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -30.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "sheet-metal-workers",
      "title": "Sheet Metal Workers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 61800,
      "overlap": 84,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Repairing",
        "Troubleshooting"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "brickmasons-and-blockmasons",
      "title": "Brickmasons and Blockmasons",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 68,
      "median_wage": 62120,
      "overlap": 82,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Management of Material Resources",
        "Science"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "riggers",
      "title": "Riggers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 70,
      "median_wage": 62640,
      "overlap": 76,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Troubleshooting",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Repairing",
        "Management of Personnel Resources"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}