{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/lighting-technicians/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Lighting Technicians",
    "soc_code": "27-4015",
    "category": "Media",
    "us_employment": 8900,
    "median_annual_wage": 68060
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 56,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 15 rather than 18, the ladder work, cable runs, truss assembly and mid-show fault-finding stay stubbornly manual, but a real slice of the job — writing cues, building plots and hookups, patching, and pre-visualizing looks in WYSIWYG or Vectorworks — is already software-assisted and gets faster with every release, so the trade resists digitisation without being immune to it.",
    "embodiment": "An 18 reflects load-ins on genie lifts and personnel lifts, focusing from catwalks and ladders, pulling feeder and multicable across a stage or location, and working in venues and on location where the temperature, the deck and the schedule are all somebody else's problem — this is uncontrolled physical work, docked from 20 only because a programmer's shift at the console is genuinely a desk job.",
    "liability_shield": "A 5 is right because nothing legally stops anyone from hanging a fixture: ETCP Entertainment Electrician and Rigger certification is a hiring preference and an IATSE credential, not a statutory gate, and when the work crosses into permanent branch-circuit wiring a licensed electrician has to sign it, not you.",
    "trust_premium": "An 8 captures that gaffers and LDs rehire the hands who focus fast and don't argue about a note, and steady work comes from being on somebody's call list rather than from a resume — but the audience never knows your name and a producer treats the third electric as a headcount line, which is what keeps this out of the teens.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 10 reflects real calls made without checking in — how to trim a truss to clear a set piece, whether that dimmer rack gets bypassed or replaced with the house going in twenty minutes, whether a point can take the load — but the design intent, the cue list and the final look belong to the lighting designer, so the ambiguous high-stakes aesthetic decisions aren't yours to own."
  },
  "rationale": "Rigging truss, running cable, hanging and focusing fixtures, and troubleshooting a dimmer that dies ten minutes before curtain are physical tasks no current robot performs on a live set. The real threat isn't a machine taking the ladder — it's demand: automated moving lights and pre-visualization software already shrink crew counts, and generative video plus LED volume workflows shift some work off the physical stage entirely. Console programming and paperwork (plots, hookups, magic sheets) are the parts AI touches first.",
  "outlook": "Live events and physical shoots will still need hands on ladders in 2035, but crews get leaner per production and the well-paid slots concentrate in certified rigging, power, and gaffer roles.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Entertainment rigging and temporary power increasingly falls under enforced credentialing: ETCP (Entertainment Technician Certification Program) rigging/electrician certification is already written into some venue and insurer requirements, and several jurisdictions require a licensed electrician to sign off on temporary power distribution above a threshold. If ETCP certification (or a state electrical license for temporary distro) becomes a hard condition of venue insurance or of OSHA-referenced consensus standards (ANSI E1.x series), a named certified human personally owns the load calculation and rigging sign-off.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift plus the same certification trend: if the crew shrinks so the remaining head electrician is the person making live calls on rigging point capacity, arc-flash risk, and whether a truss goes up at all, the role owns consequential safety calls rather than executing them. Post-incident litigation over rigging collapses already names the certified rigger.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Two genuine tiers exist: console programming/paperwork (plot, hookup, magic sheet) versus on-site troubleshooting and design-intent focus. If AI absorbs the paperwork and pre-viz tier, the residual day is fault-finding dead DMX runs, sorting fixture firmware, and negotiating focus with a designer under time pressure — none of which current tools do.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: IATSE local hiring-hall agreements that require union crew of a minimum size for a given rig, which are bargained per-venue and per-tour. This is a demand floor rather than a buyer paying for humanness.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is demand, not capability. Automated fixtures and pre-viz cut headcount regardless of how high liability or judgment scores go — a stronger licensing shield protects fewer jobs, each more defensible. No plausible route to a real consumer-facing trust premium; audiences never see who focused the light."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 4280,
        "wage": 51470
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 8540,
        "wage": 61650
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 9520,
        "wage": 62240
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 10130,
        "wage": 60560
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 8900,
        "wage": 68060
      }
    ],
    "from": 2021,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 107.9,
    "comparable_from": 2021,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}