{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/loading-and-moving-machine-operators-underground-mining/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining", "soc_code": "47-5044", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 5930, "median_annual_wage": 74500 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 53, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 7, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Tramming a scoop through a 42-inch coal seam, feeling out soft bottom, spotting loose roof between bolt rows and repositioning cable and ventilation curtain are tasks no software has replaced at scale, but the load-haul-dump cycle on a fixed haul route is the single most automated task in mining worldwide — AutoMine-class systems already run it in large hard-rock stopes, which is what pulls this off 17-18 and down to 14.", "embodiment": "You work kneeling or seated in a low-profile machine in an unsupported-roof zone with respirable dust, methane, water on the bottom, changing ground conditions and no line of sight beyond the headlights — an uncontrolled environment in the literal MSHA sense, short of 20 only because the machine cab imposes some structure on the day.", "liability_shield": "MSHA Part 48 training, annual refresher, task training on each machine and a state-issued miner's certificate in states like Kentucky and West Virginia are all mandatory, but none of it is a professional licence you personally lose in a liability action — the operator gets cited alongside the mine, and the operator holds the legal duty under 30 CFR 75.", "trust_premium": "Tonnage arriving at the feeder is fungible; your crew and section foreman know whether you can keep a continuous miner cut out, but the customer and the mine office see production numbers, not you.", "judgment_accountability": "You make real calls with no procedure covering them — whether that top will hold long enough to make one more trip, when to stop and pull the section boss over, whether the bottom will take the load — but the cut plan, roof-control plan and ventilation plan are written and approved above you, which caps the discretion below the ambiguous-high-stakes band." }, "rationale": "Operating continuous haulage, shuttle cars, LHDs and scoops in a low-seam underground environment is physical work that language models cannot touch — but it is the one blue-collar niche where purpose-built autonomy is already commercial. Autonomous and teleoperated loading/haulage systems (AutoMine, Cat MineStar, tele-remote scoops) are running in production mines precisely because removing humans from the face is a safety win, and the repetitive tram-load-dump cycle on fixed haul routes is the easiest case for machine autonomy. The occupation's protection is that most US underground operations are small, coal-heavy, capital-constrained, and shrinking for market reasons faster than they are automating.", "outlook": "Headcount keeps falling through 2035 — driven more by coal decline and consolidation than robots — while the surviving jobs shift toward tele-remote control rooms and underground equipment maintenance.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "MSHA rulemaking or an approval condition requiring a certified, MSHA-credentialed operator physically present in the section (not a surface teleoperation pod) to authorize and supervise autonomous haulage in gassy/permissible Class I coal environments — analogous to the existing permissibility approval regime for face equipment and the certified-person requirements for roof control and gas checks. If autonomy approvals are written to require an on-section certified attendant per machine rather than one remote supervisor per fleet, headcount protection follows.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "UMWA or state-level (WV, KY, PA) mine safety board provisions conditioning autonomous haulage on a named certified operator retaining stop authority and bearing statutory duty — West Virginia's separate state mine certification regime is a live channel, and contract language on remote/automated equipment staffing has appeared in mining CBAs abroad.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as fixed-route tramming automates: the residual job becomes recovery of stuck/derailed machines, operating in irregular pillar-retreat and low-seam geometry, first cuts in newly developed entries, and manual haulage where roof conditions are deteriorating. This tier genuinely exists and resists autonomy because haul routes are not fixed. Rises only in surviving operations — headcount falls even as per-worker resistance rises.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If MSHA or state rules formalize the operator's role as the person who calls a halt on ground/roof/ventilation conditions observed during haulage — making that an accountable, documented determination rather than an informal report to the foreman — the role owns a consequential ambiguous call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, the sector-level ceiling is low: US underground coal employment is contracting on commodity economics regardless of automation, and no trust-premium route exists — buyers purchase tons, never a human operator. Liability shields that require an on-section certified human are the only mechanism with real headcount consequence, and vendors are actively lobbying the opposite way, since removing humans from the face is the safety argument for autonomy." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2019, "emp": 4200, "wage": 54210 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 3520, "wage": 56640 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 4450, "wage": 57900 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 5210, "wage": 63920 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 5160, "wage": 64070 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 6130, "wage": 68860 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 5930, "wage": 74500 } ], "from": 2019, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 41.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [ "Active Learning", "Judgment and Decision Making", "Mathematics", "Systems Evaluation" ] }, { "slug": "signal-and-track-switch-repairers", "title": "Signal and Track Switch Repairers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 92460, "overlap": 63, "skills_to_close": [ "Quality Control Analysis", "Installation", "Repairing", "Equipment Selection" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }