{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/locomotive-engineers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Locomotive Engineers",
    "soc_code": "53-4011",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 33470,
    "median_annual_wage": 81410
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 60,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 15,
    "liability_shield": 15,
    "trust_premium": 4,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Continuous train handling is exactly the kind of closed-loop control PTC and Rio Tinto's AutoHaul already execute, but the shift also includes coupling and uncoupling air hoses, setting hand brakes, reading track warrants against paper bulletins, and troubleshooting a locomotive that shuts down at 2 a.m. in a siding — those non-cab duties are why this sits at 13 and not 6.",
    "embodiment": "You climb on and off moving equipment, walk ballast in ice, bleed off cars, and inspect a 12,000-foot consist in whatever weather the subdivision gives you; it stops short of 18-20 only because a majority of the hours are seated at the controls in a heated cab.",
    "liability_shield": "FRA 49 CFR Part 240 certification is held by you personally, revocable for a single decertifiable event — exceeding a restricting signal, tampering with the alerter, failing a Rule G test — and after an incident it's your name on the event recorder download and the NTSB docket, though the carrier absorbs the civil damages, which caps this below the 18-20 range.",
    "trust_premium": "Freight shippers never learn your name and no passenger picks a train because you're on the head end; the only relationship that matters is with the conductor and the dispatcher, and both are assigned by the crew caller.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether to stop for a car sitting on a crossing, how to handle slack on a 1.5% descending grade with a heavy tonnage train, or whether an air brake test result is good enough to depart are calls you make alone in seconds with the rulebook only partially covering them — restrained from 16+ because timetable, general orders, and dispatcher authority dictate most of the shift."
  },
  "rationale": "Train handling — throttle, dynamic braking, slack management over grades — is a control problem that automation already solves in closed systems like Rio Tinto's driverless iron-ore network, and Positive Train Control has already digitized speed and signal enforcement. What keeps the job is everything outside the cab: walking a mile-long consist to find a broken knuckle, cutting cars in a yard, judging a grade-crossing obstruction or a dragging-equipment alarm in a blizzard, and FRA certification plus BLET-negotiated crew-size rules that make removing the human a political fight, not an engineering one. Scored for the modal Class I freight engineer; passenger and short-line work differ in trust exposure but not much in automatability.",
  "outlook": "Mainline road jobs thin out as automated train operation and single-person crews advance, but FRA rules, union contracts, and the irreducible need for someone on the ground to inspect and fix keep tens of thousands of these jobs into the 2030s.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "FRA's two-person crew rule (49 CFR 218 Subpart G, finalized April 2024) survives the ongoing industry litigation and is extended, or state minimum-crew laws (Ohio, Arizona, Kansas, California AB 2600-style bills) accumulate to the point that a certified engineer is statutorily required in the cab regardless of automation capability; FRA certification (49 CFR 240) already places personal decertification liability on the engineer for speed/signal violations",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Post-East-Palestine rulemaking and NTSB recommendations push hazmat train handling, dragging-equipment and hot-bearing alarm response into a documented decision the certified engineer owns and is examined on — i.e. the engineer becomes the named accountable party for stop/continue calls on defect detector alerts rather than following dispatcher instruction",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier job: if automated train operation (GoA2 cruise/energy management, already deployed as Trip Optimizer/LEADER) absorbs throttle and dynamic braking on mainline, the residual day is exception work — broken knuckles, air-brake tests, yard switching, blizzard grade-crossing judgment — which is a harder task mix than today's average shift",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "If crew consist shrinks toward one, the remaining engineer absorbs the conductor's ground work — walking the consist, setting handbrakes, coupling — raising physical unpredictable-environment content per worker even as headcount falls",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: freight shippers buy carload rates, not the identity of the person at the throttle, and no buyer will pay extra for a human engineer. Also note the liability and embodiment levers can rise while total employment falls — a one-person crew with a stronger shield is still half the jobs."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 35680,
        "wage": 60990
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 34850,
        "wage": 62100
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 35520,
        "wage": 67090
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 37110,
        "wage": 71870
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 38980,
        "wage": 79740
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 36440,
        "wage": 74570
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 32390,
        "wage": 74770
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 31990,
        "wage": 77400
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 33470,
        "wage": 81410
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -6.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "commercial-pilots",
      "title": "Commercial Pilots",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 73,
      "median_wage": 123220,
      "overlap": 71,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Science",
        "Persuasion",
        "Systems Evaluation",
        "Systems Analysis"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "captains-mates-and-pilots-of-water-vessels",
      "title": "Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 74,
      "median_wage": 92460,
      "overlap": 54,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Management of Material Resources"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}