{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/machinists/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Machinists", "soc_code": "51-4041", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 287050, "median_annual_wage": 58750 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 11 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Indicating a casting true within .0005 on a four-jaw, shimming a soft-jaw to hold a thin-wall part without crushing it, and re-cutting a boring bar's approach after chatter shows up are all decisions made by touch and sound at the machine, which is why this sits at 14 rather than 18 — the CAM programming, tool-library selection, and setup-sheet paperwork that used to eat hours of your shift are the parts genuinely being handed to software.", "embodiment": "You are inside a machine envelope with a dial indicator, hauling 60-lb vises and chucks, dealing with hot chips, flood coolant on the floor, and tramming a head by feel — a 17 rather than 20 because the shop floor is at least a fixed, lit, indoor space, not a trench or a roofline.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates running a Bridgeport or a Haas; NIMS credentials and a journeyman card help you get hired and paid, but if a part fails in the field the liability runs to the shop's ISO/AS9100 quality system and the engineer who signed the print, not to you.", "trust_premium": "The machinist a shop owner calls at 6am for a hot job, or the one an engineer walks out to the floor to ask \"can we actually hold this tolerance,\" has real standing — but the part ships in a box with an inspection report and the customer never learns your name, which caps this at 7.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether an out-of-tolerance feature gets scrapped, reworked, or written up for deviation, when to stop a run because tool wear is trending, and how to interpret a print that GD&Ts a datum scheme the fixture can't reach — real calls with money attached, held to 11 because engineering owns the design intent and QC owns the final accept/reject." }, "rationale": "The core of the job — setting up machines, dialing in fixtures and workholding, changing tools, hearing a bad cut, deburring, and measuring parts with mics and CMMs — is hands-on work in a shop where every job differs, and today's robotics can't touch most of it. What AI does erode is the programming and planning layer: G-code generation, CAM toolpath selection, feeds-and-speeds lookup, and blueprint-to-setup-sheet translation are increasingly automated, and high-volume run-tending has been shrinking for decades. The modal machinist in a job shop or small-lot manufacturer keeps working; the pure production operator and the programmer-only role are the squeezed tiers.", "outlook": "Machinist headcount keeps drifting down as programming and run-tending consolidate, but skilled setup and inspection people in low-volume, high-tolerance shops stay in short supply and get paid better for it.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: as CAM/G-code generation and setup-sheet translation get automated, the surviving job is the judgment tier — first-article inspection, fixture design for one-off geometry, diagnosing chatter/tool deflection, salvaging out-of-tolerance parts, and hard-to-machine alloys (Inconel, titanium) in aerospace/defense small lots. This is a genuine two-tier occupation and the routine tier is already leaving.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "AS9100/NADCAP and ITAR-driven customer flowdowns that require a named, qualified human to sign first-article inspection reports (AS9102) and material certs for flight-critical parts, extended explicitly to bar AI-generated inspection sign-off. Similar language is appearing in defense supplier quality clauses and could be tightened by DCMA or prime-contractor audits.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If traceability regimes (aerospace, medical implant, nuclear per ASME NQA-1) push the named machinist/setup tech as the accountable signer on scrap/rework and deviation dispositions rather than a QA department, the role owns consequential ambiguous calls directly.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Narrow route only: prototype and R&D job shops where customers pay for a specific machinist's problem-solving on unmanufacturable drawings, and defense reshoring clauses that pay a premium for domestic human-staffed shops. This is a small share of the 287k and will not lift the occupation broadly.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already near ceiling at 17 and cannot meaningfully rise. There is no licensure for machinists — no state board, no personal liability — so liability_shield can only rise via customer/audit contract flowdown, which caps it well below a professional-license score. Realistic ceiling around 62-65." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 378320, "wage": 42600 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 384350, "wage": 43630 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 383470, "wage": 44420 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 360340, "wage": 45840 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 333220, "wage": 47730 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 316860, "wage": 48510 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 290720, "wage": 50840 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 298790, "wage": 56150 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 287050, "wage": 58750 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -24.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "automotive-body-and-related-repairers", "title": "Automotive Body and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 54890, "overlap": 83, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics", "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 64520, "overlap": 83, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }