{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/maintenance-workers-machinery/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Maintenance Workers, Machinery",
    "soc_code": "49-9043",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 60020,
    "median_annual_wage": 60850
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 63,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 9,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Repacking a bearing, shimming a misaligned coupling to within thousandths, hand-tightening a gearbox to spec, and tracking a hydraulic leak back through hose runs are tasks where the diagnosis lives in feel, sound and access — 17 rather than 20 because PM scheduling, lubrication route logging and CMMS-driven vibration trend calls are already being handed to sensors and software.",
    "embodiment": "You work inside the machine — on your back under a conveyor, in the crawl space behind a press, on a ladder at a dust collector — in plants that are hot, loud, oily, LOTO-tagged and never laid out the way a robot needs, which is why this sits at 19 and not the 13-14 of shop-floor work done at a bench.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no state licence to maintain machinery; you may hold a forklift cert, boiler or refrigerant card, or an OSHA 30, and the employer's maintenance supervisor and engineering sign off on the repair, so nothing in law makes you personally the one who answers for the machine — that puts this at 5, not 0.",
    "trust_premium": "Production supervisors call you by name because you know which line runs hot and which press has always had that vibration, and that plant-specific memory has real value — but it belongs to the site, not to you, and a new hire with the same skills replaces you inside a shift, which caps it at 9.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether to run a line to end of shift or shut it down now, whether that noise is a bearing at 200 hours or 2 hours, and whether a temporary fix is safe enough to hold — real calls with production and injury consequences, held to 13 because engineering, the OEM manual and the manufacturer's specs set the boundaries you work inside."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — crawling into a press, feeling for bearing play, chasing a hydraulic leak, replacing a worn sprocket in a hot production line under time pressure — is physical diagnostic work in cluttered, unpredictable plant environments that today's robotics cannot touch. What AI does erode is the paperwork and diagnostic-lookup shell: work orders, PM scheduling, manual reference, vibration and sensor trend analysis, parts sourcing, and failure write-ups. The occupation is 'exposed' rather than 'safe' mainly because there is no licensure requirement and no client relationship to protect the role — the protection is purely that the work happens with hands on greasy metal.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds roughly steady as plants automate production and need more people to keep that automation running, but the routine PM-round portion of the job shrinks into sensor-driven checklists, pushing pay and hiring toward workers who can rebuild and commission equipment, not just inspect it.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Extension of an existing named-individual certification regime to general machinery maintenance: OSHA Process Safety Management (29 CFR 1910.119) mechanical-integrity inspections already require documented qualified-person sign-off on covered process equipment, and ammonia refrigeration operators are pushed toward RETA CIRO/CARO credentials by insurers. If PSM-style mechanical integrity documentation, or a state boiler/pressure-vessel-style certificate of competency, were required for maintenance sign-off on guarded or energy-hazard machinery (LOTO release-to-service under 1910.147), the signature becomes a named licensed human rather than any available tech.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Insurer-driven condition-monitoring regimes (FM Global, Zurich equipment-breakdown coverage) that make the maintenance tech the person of record who accepts or overrides an AI vibration/thermography alarm and authorizes continued run. Once the model recommends and a human must accept residual risk in writing to keep coverage, the consequential call is formally owned. Already visible in refinery and utility reliability programs.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as CMMS/AI absorbs the routine tier — PM scheduling, manual lookup, parts sourcing, failure write-ups. The residual job is undocumented-fault diagnosis on aging non-instrumented machines, retrofit fabrication, and commissioning judgment. This occupation genuinely has two tiers, and the surviving tier is the harder one; watch for headcount falling while remaining roles are retitled 'reliability technician'.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "OEM warranty and equipment-financing terms that void coverage unless service is performed by a factory-certified named technician (already standard in packaging, CNC, and medical-device manufacturing equipment). This is a plant-buyer preference for a specific credentialed human, not a general public trust premium, so the ceiling is low.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a consumer-style trust premium: buyers are plants purchasing uptime, and they will accept whatever mix of robot and human delivers it cheapest. Embodiment is already near maximum and cannot rise; it can only be eroded by cheaper general-purpose manipulators. The structural weakness — no licensure and no client relationship — is only fixable through safety-code or insurer mechanisms, and those attach to hazardous process equipment, not to machinery maintenance generally."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 83520,
        "wage": 45540
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 80270,
        "wage": 47060
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 72890,
        "wage": 47520
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 65240,
        "wage": 50100
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 57660,
        "wage": 48900
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 62770,
        "wage": 53310
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 58040,
        "wage": 57350
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 56540,
        "wage": 60500
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 60020,
        "wage": 60850
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -28.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}