{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/management-analysts/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Management Analysts", "soc_code": "13-1111", "category": "Business", "us_employment": 898280, "median_annual_wage": 101860 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 37, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 8, "embodiment": 4, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "An 8 reflects that the deliverable chain — coding interview notes, building the as-is/to-be process map, running the benchmarking pull, the activity-based cost model, the org chart redesign scenarios — is now draftable by a model faster than you can open the workbook, while the workshop facilitation, the stakeholder interviews where the real constraint is disclosed off-record, and the steering-committee negotiation still require a person present, which is why it sits mid-band rather than at 4.", "embodiment": "A 4 is the ceiling for a job done from a laptop in a client conference room or on Zoom; the only physical element is walking a plant floor or warehouse during a time-and-motion study or Gemba walk, and even that is observation you could delegate to the client's own supervisors.", "liability_shield": "A 2 is right because no state licenses management consulting, CMC certification from IMC USA is voluntary and rarely a bid requirement, and when a restructuring recommendation destroys value the client's own officers and board carry the fiduciary exposure — your engagement letter caps your damages at fees.", "trust_premium": "An 11 recognises that repeat and referral work is the commercial engine of this trade and that partners are hired by name for turnaround and post-merger integration mandates, but a large share of the market is competitively bid RFPs, staff-augmentation rate cards, and internal-consulting groups where whichever analyst is on the bench gets assigned — so the relationship is a real asset, not the product itself.", "judgment_accountability": "A 12 fits work where you choose which cost driver to attack, which sites to close, and which function absorbs a 15% headcount reduction, and then defend it under executive cross-examination — but the decision is signed by the CEO or board, not you, and much of the engagement runs on the firm's standard diagnostic methodology rather than open-ended calls." }, "rationale": "The bulk of this job — interview synthesis, process mapping, benchmarking, cost models in Excel, and the 60-slide findings deck — is exactly the text-and-spreadsheet work generative AI now produces at draft quality in minutes. What survives is the part that requires being in the room: extracting what executives won't say in a survey, brokering agreement between departments that don't want to change, and owning a recommendation when it costs someone their headcount. There is no license, no signature requirement, and no personal liability, so the only real moats are client trust and accountability for the call.", "outlook": "Headcount at the analyst and associate tier shrinks materially as AI absorbs research and deck production, while senior advisors who own implementation and client relationships hold or gain leverage.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift plus contract form: if AI absorbs the deck-and-model tier, the remaining engagement is restructuring and headcount decisions where the analyst is named in the board minutes as recommending party. Watch for outcome-based/at-risk fee structures (already used by Bain, McKinsey Implementation, Alvarez & Marsal turnaround mandates) becoming standard rather than exceptional — the firm owning P&L consequence rather than delivering advice.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier occupation: if the synthesis/benchmark/deck tier is automated, what remains is confidential executive elicitation, cross-department negotiation, and change management in the room — work that resists because the input is guarded and political, not because it's cognitively hard. Watch staffing pyramids flatten (analyst-to-partner ratio falling at major firms) as evidence the routine tier has gone.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Narrow, real route in specific sub-segments: expert-witness and litigation-support damages work already requires a testifying human under FRE 702 and Daubert, and federal court rules do not accept AI-generated expert opinion. If courts adopt explicit AI-disclosure/certification rules for expert reports (several federal districts have issued standing orders on AI in filings), damages and valuation consultants gain a signature requirement. Similarly, a PCAOB or SEC rule requiring a named individual to attest to internal-control remediation advice would extend this.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Confidentiality-driven premium: if a client's own AI-use restrictions (bank, defense contractor, or a firm under litigation hold) require that pre-decisional strategy work not touch a vendor model, the human engagement becomes the only permitted form. Watch for procurement clauses prohibiting contractor use of LLMs on privileged material, and for privilege-preservation arguments about AI-processed work product.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "The liability lever only reaches a slice of the 898k — expert witness, valuation, restructuring — not the generalist internal-consulting majority, whose title has no license to attach a signature to. Trust premium is capped by the fact that buyers of management analysis are themselves AI adopters under cost pressure; they are the least likely population to pay for human-made slides. Realistic ceiling around 50, and the honest path there runs through the occupation shrinking to its judgment tier rather than the occupation getting protected." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 659200, "wage": 82450 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 684470, "wage": 83610 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 709750, "wage": 85260 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 734000, "wage": 87660 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 768450, "wage": 93000 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 808860, "wage": 95290 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 838140, "wage": 99410 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 893900, "wage": 101190 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 898280, "wage": 101860 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 36.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "chief-executives", "title": "Chief Executives", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "median_wage": 213990, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Financial Resources", "Management of Material Resources", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "education-administrators-postsecondary", "title": "Education Administrators, Postsecondary", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 50, "median_wage": 104590, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Financial Resources", "Instructing", "Learning Strategies", "Management of Personnel Resources" ] }, { "slug": "medical-and-health-services-managers", "title": "Medical and Health Services Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 55, "median_wage": 123860, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Financial Resources", "Management of Material Resources", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Negotiation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }