{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/managers-all-other/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Managers, All Other",
    "soc_code": "11-9199",
    "category": "Management",
    "us_employment": 622190,
    "median_annual_wage": 141900
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 46,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 6,
    "liability_shield": 2,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 15
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "The recurring artifacts you produce — weekly status decks, budget variance narratives, headcount forecasts, SOP redlines, action-item tracking out of meetings — are exactly what LLMs draft competently from your own systems of record, but the parts that put this at 11 rather than 5 are the ones with no source document: telling a strong performer they didn't get the promotion, deciding which of two departments eats the shortfall, and holding a vendor to a commitment that was never written down.",
    "embodiment": "A 6 reflects that most of your week is Teams, spreadsheets, and a conference room, with a real but bounded physical tail — walking the floor or site, being present for an investigation or a termination, showing up when a facility, shipment, or event goes sideways — none of which requires you to handle equipment or work in conditions a screen couldn't reach.",
    "liability_shield": "Nothing in this bucket requires a licence to hold the title; PMP, SHRM-CP, or CFM help you get hired but no board can pull them in a way that stops someone else from doing your job, and when something goes wrong the exposure lands on the entity or on an officer who signs, not on you personally.",
    "trust_premium": "At 12 you are carried by relationships that are real but transferable: your team follows you because you handle escalations and defend their headcount, and peer managers take your calls because you've traded favors for two years — but a competent successor rebuilds that in a quarter or two, which is why this isn't the 16+ of a role where the client leaves when you do.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 15 is about ownership of calls with no correct answer and no one above you to absorb them: which of five underfunded priorities gets cut, whether a performance problem is coachable or terminal, when to escalate a compliance concern that will embarrass a colleague — and if the project misses, the postmortem names you, not the tooling that produced your forecast."
  },
  "rationale": "This is a residual bucket — everything from program managers and operations managers to compliance and facilities leads — so the modal worker is a mid-level manager who supervises 5–20 people, owns a budget line, and reports upward. The reporting layer of that job (status decks, variance write-ups, meeting summaries, scheduling, policy drafting, KPI dashboards) is already largely automatable, while hiring, firing, performance calls, cross-team negotiation, and owning a bad outcome are not. The real risk is span-of-control compression: AI reporting tools let one manager cover more people, so headcount thins rather than the role disappearing.",
  "outlook": "Managerial headcount in this bucket thins by attrition as AI absorbs the reporting and coordination layer, and the survivors are the ones with real decision rights over people and money.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is genuinely two-tiered here: if reporting/deck/variance/scheduling work is fully absorbed by AI, the residual day is hiring, firing, performance calibration, cross-team negotiation and escalation handling — none currently automatable. Watch for job postings in this bucket dropping 'reporting' language and adding 'people leadership' as the sole core duty.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Named-human-accountability rules attaching to management decisions: EU AI Act Art. 14 human-oversight duties for high-risk HR/employment systems require an identified natural person able to override; NYC Local Law 144 and Illinois AI Video Interview Act already put a named employer representative behind automated hiring tools. If audit regimes require a named manager to sign off on each AI-assisted hiring, promotion, or termination decision, the sign-off becomes a job function rather than a formality.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Sector-specific personal accountability regimes extending to operations/compliance leads — e.g. the UK Senior Managers & Certification Regime (individual FCA-registered accountability for a defined function), or OSHA/EPA-style named responsible-person designations for facilities managers. Where a statute names an individual rather than the firm, span-of-control compression stalls because one person cannot hold unlimited designated functions.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If AI systems make more of the recommendations, the manager's remaining role is override-and-own: documented deviation from an AI recommendation, and bearing the outcome. Watch for internal governance policies (already appearing in bank and insurer model-risk frameworks) that require a manager to log a written rationale whenever they overrule a model.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: union contracts requiring that discipline, grievance and scheduling decisions be made by an identified human supervisor with authority to deviate — e.g. Teamsters' 2023 UPS contract language on technology and driver-facing monitoring, and existing US port and rail agreements restricting automated dispatch. This raises trust premium for the represented-workforce slice of this bucket, not for corporate program managers.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is span-of-control compression, which none of these levers fully addresses: a liability shield or override duty can survive while the number of managers needed halves, because one named signer can cover a larger team. Trust premium is also structurally weak — the buyer of a mid-level manager's output is an internal executive optimising cost, not an external customer who can be charged extra for a human. Realistic ceiling around 60."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 430120,
        "wage": 105610
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 462840,
        "wage": 107480
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 497890,
        "wage": 124650
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 543290,
        "wage": 128620
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 589750,
        "wage": 133560
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 630980,
        "wage": 136550
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 622190,
        "wage": 141900
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 44.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}