{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/manicurists-and-pedicurists/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Manicurists and Pedicurists",
    "soc_code": "39-5092",
    "category": "Personal Care",
    "us_employment": 152770,
    "median_annual_wage": 35760
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 11,
    "trust_premium": 14,
    "judgment_accountability": 6
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Filing a nail to a client's requested shape, pushing back a cuticle without drawing blood, judging when gel is cured enough to stop the lamp — these are tactile calibrations made in real time against a hand that flinches, and the only digitisable parts of the day are booking, deposits, and posting photos of your work, which is why this sits at 17 rather than mid-range.",
    "embodiment": "You are physically holding a stranger's foot, working around ingrown edges, fungus, diabetic skin, and calluses at close range with drills and nippers, in a salon with acetone fumes and clients who move — a 19 reflects that there is no version of this task that happens away from the body.",
    "liability_shield": "Every state but a handful requires an individual nail technician licence with training hours and a board exam, and sanitation violations or an infection traced to your implements land on your licence, not the salon's alone — an 11 rather than higher because the credential is a few hundred hours, not a scope-of-practice monopoly over a protected medical act.",
    "trust_premium": "Regulars book you by name for a 45-minute conversation and hands they trust with a drill bit, and they follow you when you change salons — 14 not 18 because walk-in and discount-salon volume is real and a lot of clients are choosing price and location, not a person.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The decisions are bounded — which shape, which product for a client's nail condition, when to refuse service on an infected nail and refer out — real calls, but made inside sanitation protocol and product instructions rather than in genuine ambiguity, which is what 6 marks."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is hands-on fine-motor work on another person's living hands and feet — shaping nails, pushing cuticles, removing calluses, applying and curing gel, sanitizing tools — none of which language models touch and none of which current robotics can do safely on a moving human. Licensing (state nail technician credential, sanitation rules) and repeat-client relationships add real protection; the automatable slice is scheduling, reminders, intake forms, and social-media marketing. The genuine threats to this occupation are cheap press-on and at-home gel products and wage competition, not AI.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds or grows through the 2030s — AI can run the front desk but not touch a client's hands — with earnings pressure coming from at-home gel products and salon price competition rather than automation.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State cosmetology boards tightening infection-control enforcement to the level of medical instrument reprocessing — e.g. mandatory autoclave logs, single-use file/buffer rules, and named-licensee accountability for each service, following the pattern of post-outbreak rules in states after mycobacterial infection lawsuits. Also formal 'medical nail technician' credentialing for diabetic and oncology foot care, where a licensed human must assess and document before service.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Explicit board or insurer duty to screen and refuse/refer on visible pathology — suspected melanoma of the nail bed, diabetic neuropathy, fungal infection, ingrown nails with cellulitis — with documented referral. Some states already bar cutting on broken skin; formalizing a triage-and-refer obligation makes the call consequential and owned.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Continued shift of the high-margin segment toward artistry (hand-painted nail art, structured gel extensions, bridal/editorial work) as press-ons absorb the commodity tier — buyers paying named technicians via Instagram/booking apps rather than walk-in salons. Already visible in independent booth-rental and studio pricing.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is limited here: the automatable slice (booking, reminders, marketing) is already small, so automating it does not concentrate the remaining work into a higher judgment tier. Little headroom above 17.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Scores are already near the top on the capability dimensions; the realistic ceiling is roughly mid-70s. The binding threat is not AI but product substitution (press-ons, at-home gel kits) and wage competition in a low-barrier, high-turnover licensed trade — neither of which any of these levers addresses. A high displacement-resistance score here coexists with weak earnings."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      69
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 104020,
        "wage": 23230
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 110170,
        "wage": 24330
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 111780,
        "wage": 25770
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 73010,
        "wage": 27870
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 120540,
        "wage": 29210
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 138020,
        "wage": 31130
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 144810,
        "wage": 34250
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 147820,
        "wage": 34660
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 152770,
        "wage": 35760
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 46.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}