{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/mathematical-science-occupations-all-other/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Mathematical Science Occupations, All Other", "soc_code": "15-2099", "category": "Tech", "us_employment": 3720, "median_annual_wage": 81490 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "contested": true, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 9, "embodiment": 3, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 9 the split is visible inside a single day: the derivation setup, the choice of estimator for a badly-specified problem, and the argument for why a stress scenario is binding still take a person, but the Python that implements it, the backtest harness, the sensitivity tables and the SR 11-7 style write-up are now first-drafted by tooling faster than you can type them.", "embodiment": "A 3 reflects that the only physical constraints are a workstation and, for the cryptologic and defence-adjacent slice of this code, a SCIF or air-gapped terminal you must physically sit at — that limits where the work happens, not what the hands do.", "liability_shield": "There is no licence to strip: unlike the actuary who signs a Statement of Actuarial Opinion under ASOP, a model validator's report is absorbed by the CRO or model risk committee, and an SOA/CFA credential or clearance is a hiring filter rather than a legal barrier to anyone else doing the work.", "trust_premium": "At 7 you have a real internal relationship — the model owners and the traders or epidemiologists who consume your output know whether your challenge is credible, and examiners recognise repeat authors — but the deliverable travels as a document under an institution's name, and clients rarely ask for you personally.", "judgment_accountability": "12 is the effective-approve call: deciding a model is unfit for a capital decision or that a proxy variable invalidates a published estimate is a discretionary judgment with real consequences, but it lands inside a governance chain with committee sign-off, documented methodology standards, and an escalation path above you rather than terminating with your name." }, "rationale": "This is a residual category — model validators, quantitative analysts, cryptologic and biostatistical specialists who don't fit the statistician, actuary, or data-scientist codes — and the modal worker spends the day writing and testing code, cleaning data, fitting and documenting models, and producing technical memos. Those are exactly the artifacts LLMs now draft at usable quality, and nothing about the work is physical or licensed. What holds is the accountable end: choosing formulations under ambiguity, deciding whether a model is fit for a consequential decision, and signing the validation report someone in risk or regulatory will lean on.", "outlook": "Routine quantitative production work in this residual category compresses hard over ten years, while a smaller, better-paid tier of model validators and methodology owners in regulated settings holds or grows.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Model risk management rules move from 'effective challenge by qualified staff' to a named-individual attestation: e.g. if the Fed/OCC/FDIC SR 11-7 successor or an EU AI Act Article 17 implementing act requires a specifically identified model validator to sign that a high-risk model was independently validated, with personal accountability under a regime like the UK SM&CR / FCA Senior Manager attestations already applied to some model owners. Similar route via FDA biostatistics: a named responsible statistician signing the SAP and unblinding memo under ICH E9(R1).", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Independent validation of AI/ML models becomes a mandated second line function under EU AI Act conformity assessment and NAIC/state insurance model-governance bulletins, so the role owns the go/no-go on deployment rather than advising on it — the validator's adverse finding blocks release.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: once code generation, data cleaning and memo drafting are absorbed, the residual day is formulation choice under ambiguity, identification/assumption critique, adversarial testing of generated models, and defending findings to regulators and examiners — genuinely two-tiered work where the upper tier is what remains. Also rises if validating AI systems built by others becomes the dominant workload.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Narrow route only: cryptologic and classified-clearance work, plus expert-witness and regulatory-examination testimony, where the buyer needs a cleared or deposable human. Confined to a minority of this residual code.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment has no route. The liability route is the only large one, and it is uncertain because model risk regulation has historically attached to the institution, not to a licensed individual — there is no board, no license, no personal statutory duty to build on, so any attestation regime would be contractual or supervisory rather than professional licensure. Realistic ceiling in the low-to-mid 50s, and that requires the named-signer rule to actually land." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs disagreed; merge is rounding-dependent", "outcome": "unresolved — published score left unchanged", "run_totals": [ 34, 31 ], "run_verdicts": [ "EXPOSED", "COOKED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2021, "emp": 3970, "wage": 62460 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 3840, "wage": 71700 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 4320, "wage": 70620 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 4660, "wage": 71490 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 3720, "wage": 81490 } ], "from": 2021, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -6.3, "comparable_from": 2021, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "medical-scientists-except-epidemiologists", "title": "Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 49, "median_wage": 103410, "overlap": 70, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Operation and Control", "Operations Analysis", "Writing" ] }, { "slug": "biochemists-and-biophysicists", "title": "Biochemists and Biophysicists", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 44, "median_wage": 127410, "overlap": 67, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Learning Strategies", "Equipment Selection", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "natural-sciences-managers", "title": "Natural Sciences Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 53, "median_wage": 167220, "overlap": 62, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Material Resources", "Management of Financial Resources", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Troubleshooting" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }