{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/middle-school-teachers-except-special-and-career-technical-education/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education", "soc_code": "25-2022", "category": "Education", "us_employment": 620090, "median_annual_wage": 64370 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 71, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 12, "trust_premium": 18, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "The gradeable artifacts — unit plans aligned to state standards, differentiated worksheets, quiz banks, rubric scoring of five-paragraph essays — are already machine-producible, which caps this below 14, but the daily core of redirecting an off-task 13-year-old, reading which student's shutdown is grief versus defiance, and running a 45-minute lab with 28 bodies and one set of scissors has no digital substitute, holding it at 13.", "embodiment": "Cafeteria and hallway duty, bus dismissal, breaking up a shoving match, walking a nosebleed to the nurse, and chaperoning field trips put you in unscripted physical space with minors daily — short of trades work in an active hazard zone, which is why this sits at 15 and not 18.", "liability_shield": "State teaching licence with subject endorsement and periodic renewal, plus personal mandatory-reporter exposure under state child-abuse statutes and in-loco-parentis duty of care, means the credential is legally required for the room — 12 rather than higher because district and state immunity absorbs most negligence claims and you are rarely the named defendant.", "trust_premium": "A 12-year-old's willingness to attempt algebra in front of peers depends on whether they believe you specifically won't humiliate them; add the parent who emails you rather than the counselor and the advisory-period disclosure that starts a referral, and the relationship is the mechanism of instruction, not a wrapper on it — hence 18.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide in real time whether a behavior is a warning, a call home, or an office referral that starts a discipline record, and whether a comment about home warrants a report — real discretion, but bounded by the district code of conduct, IEP/504 accommodations you must follow, and pacing guides, which is why this lands at 13 rather than in the ownership band." }, "rationale": "Middle school teaching is 80% classroom management, adolescent motivation, and physical supervision of 25 twelve-year-olds — none of which AI touches. Lesson plans, worksheets, quiz banks, rubric-based grading, and parent-email drafting are already being generated by AI, which will absorb prep hours rather than jobs. State licensure, mandatory-reporter duties, and in-loco-parentis custody of minors make an adult body in the room legally non-optional.", "outlook": "Headcount holds roughly flat through the 2030s on enrollment and supervision requirements, while AI quietly eats prep and grading and shifts the job further toward coaching, behavior, and intervention.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State legislatures or boards of education codifying that AI may not be the instructor of record and that a licensed teacher must supervise and sign off on any AI-generated instruction, IEP-adjacent accommodation, or grade of record — the pattern in bills already filed in states like Tennessee, Ohio and California on AI use in K-12, plus existing FERPA/COPPA data-handling duties assigned to a named certificated employee", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Expansion of mandatory-reporter and student-safety liability: statutes or district policy making the supervising teacher explicitly responsible for detecting AI-flagged self-harm/threat signals and acting, so the human is the accountable link in the chain (already emerging in threat-assessment team requirements after school-safety laws in TX, FL)", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Ratio and class-size floors written into state law or union contract (e.g. CTU/UTLA-style bargaining over class size and 'no AI substitute for staffing'), which converts parental preference for human teachers into an enforced headcount rather than a sentiment", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift: as AI absorbs lesson drafting, quiz banks and rubric grading, the residual job concentrates in the judgment tier — behavior escalation, retention and placement recommendations, MTSS/504 referrals, custody and safety calls — raising the share of the day spent on consequential ambiguous decisions", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Same task-mix shift raises the resistant share: if prep and grading are automated, what remains (de-escalation, adolescent motivation, live differentiation for 25 bodies) is the part AI cannot do — though this can also cut hours per teacher rather than raise the score", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already near its practical maximum for a supervised-minors role and cannot rise. The main downside risk is not AI capability but staffing policy: larger classes plus AI tooling reduce headcount without changing any dimension score." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 622340, "wage": 57720 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 609970, "wage": 58600 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 622330, "wage": 59660 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 599520, "wage": 60810 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 592000, "wage": 61320 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 611120, "wage": 61810 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 626690, "wage": 64290 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 620370, "wage": 62970 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 620090, "wage": 64370 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -0.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }