{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/millwrights/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Millwrights", "soc_code": "49-9044", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 40330, "median_annual_wage": 65700 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 6, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "The bulk of a millwright's shift — chain-falling a 4,000 lb gearbox into position, dial-indicating a shaft to 0.002\", grinding a shim pack to fit, tacking a base to embedded plate — has no digital substitute, and the 17 rather than 20 reflects that the calculation, print-reading, precision-laser math and vibration-spectrum interpretation layers are already being handed off to software and predictive-maintenance platforms.", "embodiment": "You work inside the machine: crawling into conveyor housings, hanging off scaffold in a boiler house, hot work in confined space with a permit and a fire watch, temperatures and dust and noise that vary shop to shop and shutdown to shutdown — there is no controlled-environment version of this task, which is why it sits at the ceiling.", "liability_shield": "There is no millwright licence — the credentials in play are NCCER, journeyman card from a UBC or IAM apprenticeship, rigging cert, hot-work and confined-space permits, and OSHA 10/30, all employer- or site-required rather than state-issued, so the liability for a dropped load or a failed weld runs to the contractor and the plant, not to your name on a stamp.", "trust_premium": "Plant maintenance managers request specific millwrights by name for shutdowns because someone who already knows that press, its history and its quirks saves hours of turnaround, but the work is still bid and dispatched through contractors and hall referrals, so the relationship shortens the ramp-up rather than being the thing sold.", "judgment_accountability": "With the line down and the clock running you decide whether that gearbox gets rebuilt in place or swapped, whether soft-foot is bad enough to justify pulling the baseplate, whether the crane pick is safe with the rigging on hand — calls made on incomplete information with real cost and injury exposure, though a plant engineer or maintenance supervisor typically signs off on the big-ticket replace decision, which keeps it at 14 rather than higher." }, "rationale": "Millwrights spend their hours rigging and setting multi-ton machinery, laser-aligning shafts to thousandths, shimming baseplates, dialing in couplings and gearboxes, and cutting/welding in live plants — work that happens in cramped, dirty, non-standardized spaces no current robot can navigate. AI can absorb the paperwork tier: reading prints, generating alignment and torque calculations, interpreting vibration spectra, writing PM schedules and repair reports. What it cannot do is feel a bearing preload, decide mid-shutdown whether to rebuild or replace with the line down at $50k/hour, or own that call.", "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat as reshored manufacturing and aging plant equipment keep demand steady; AI takes over the diagnostics and reporting layer, so the millwrights who thrive are the ones certified in precision alignment, rigging, and turnaround leadership.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Rigging and critical-lift sign-off becoming a named, personally-accountable role: OSHA 1926.1400-style qualified-rigger/lift-director certification already exists in construction cranes, and extension of a written critical-lift-plan-with-signature requirement to general industry machinery installation (or insurer mandates from FM Global / Zurich for lifts above a tonnage threshold) would put a named millwright's signature and liability on setting work", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "ASME/API machinery-alignment and boiler/pressure-equipment reinstallation records requiring a certified technician's stamp — e.g. National Board R-stamp welding repair documentation already requires certified welders; broader adoption of similar traceable sign-off for rotating-equipment reinstall in NFPA 70E/insurance-audited plants", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift: as vibration-spectrum interpretation, torque math and PM scheduling get absorbed by software, the remaining day is dominated by rebuild-vs-replace calls during live shutdowns at $50k/hour, which the millwright already owns in practice; formalizing that as shutdown-lead authority in maintenance contracts or union scope language raises it further", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Turnaround/shutdown contracting where the plant specifically buys a named crew with a documented alignment track record rather than lowest-bid labor — visible in petrochemical turnaround contracts and OEM-authorized installer programs (Sulzer, Flowserve, SKF certified) that condition warranty on a certified installer", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Precision alignment tolerances tightening as high-speed and larger-frame equipment spreads (turbomachinery, large gearboxes in wind and battery plants), pushing more of the day into hands-on shimming, soft-foot correction and thermal-growth compensation that no software substitutes for", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already 68 with embodiment maxed; the realistic headroom is liability and named-signature structure, not capability. Millwright work has no licensing board equivalent to electricians or PEs, so a full statutory shield is the least likely path — the credible route is insurer and OEM-warranty requirements rather than state law." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 68, 67 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 41360, "wage": 53980 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 43810, "wage": 55060 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 47320, "wage": 55560 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 44400, "wage": 57260 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 39240, "wage": 60330 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 40930, "wage": 60930 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 37930, "wage": 62980 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 40660, "wage": 65170 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 40330, "wage": 65700 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -2.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }