{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/mining-and-geological-engineers-including-mining-safety-engineers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers",
    "soc_code": "17-2151",
    "category": "Engineering",
    "us_employment": 6080,
    "median_annual_wage": 106220
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 68,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 15,
    "liability_shield": 13,
    "trust_premium": 10,
    "judgment_accountability": 17
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Whittle/Deswik pit optimisations, Datamine block model runs and MSHA Part 48 training records are already largely software-driven, but walking a bench to read a fresh highwall crack, judging whether a rib is taking weight, or re-sequencing a blast pattern after the drillers hit unexpected water keeps this at 13 rather than the low end.",
    "embodiment": "You are underground or on active benches in dust, diesel, water and unsupported ground on inspection rounds, standing behind the drill rig checking hole depth and burden, and going into the mine after a fall of ground — an environment where robots are used to avoid humans precisely because it cannot be controlled, which is why this sits at 15.",
    "liability_shield": "Mine plans, ventilation plans and impoundment designs go out under a state PE seal and the engineer of record is personally answerable to MSHA and state inspectors, but a meaningful share of mining engineers work under the industrial exemption without a stamp, which holds this at 13 instead of the high teens.",
    "trust_premium": "The mine manager, the safety committee and MSHA inspectors deal with you as a known individual whose ground-control judgement they've watched hold up, but the deliverable is a signed plan and a reserve statement that another competent engineer could produce, so the relationship supports the work rather than being the work.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Calling whether a slope with a moving prism is still safe to mine, whether ventilation quantity is adequate for the extended heading, or whether to stop production and evacuate is a decision made on incomplete monitoring data with fatalities and a Section 107(a) imminent danger order on the other side of it — 17 reflects that the ambiguity is irreducible and the consequence is bodies."
  },
  "rationale": "The modeling half of this job — ore reserve estimation, geostatistical block models, pit optimization runs, MSHA paperwork and incident reports — is exactly the structured numeric and document work AI is eating fastest. The other half is standing in an active pit or underground heading assessing ground conditions, ventilation adequacy, slope stability and blast placement, then signing a plan that determines whether people go home alive; that half is not automatable with current robotics or acceptable to regulators. Small occupation (about 6,000 jobs) tightly coupled to commodity cycles, which matters more to headcount than AI does.",
  "outlook": "Headcount stays small and commodity-driven while modeling and compliance drafting collapse into software; the engineers who keep working are the ones on site with stop-work authority and a stamp.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "MSHA or state mine boards extending the existing ground-control-plan and ventilation-plan signature requirement (30 CFR Part 75/77 plan approvals) to explicitly name a licensed Professional Engineer as the responsible signer, with personal liability, and barring AI-generated plans from submission without PE certification of the underlying model — a pattern already visible in Nevada/Arizona PE practice acts and in post-Brumadinho tailings rules requiring a named Engineer of Record",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM) adoption becoming a lending/insurance precondition, requiring a named Engineer of Record and Independent Tailings Review Board for each facility — already contractually required by ICMM member companies and increasingly by mine insurers",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: once block modeling, pit optimization and MSHA report drafting are automated, the residual role is ground-condition judgment, blast design sign-off and incident causation determination — the genuine judgment tier of this two-tier job. This raises effective resistance without any new rule, though it may shrink headcount at the same time",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "State or federal rule making the mine engineer a named accountable party in fatality investigations (analogous to the responsible-person provisions in Australian WHS mining regulations, where a Statutory Mine Manager or Ventilation Officer holds personal legal duty)",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Judgment accountability at 17 is near saturated. Trust premium has no realistic route: buyers are mining companies purchasing regulatory compliance, not a human relationship, and they will accept whatever the cheapest compliant signature is. Headcount is set by commodity prices, not by any of these levers."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 6150,
        "wage": 94240
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 5780,
        "wage": 92250
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 6280,
        "wage": 91160
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 6270,
        "wage": 93800
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 7370,
        "wage": 97090
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 7390,
        "wage": 97490
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 7040,
        "wage": 100640
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 6770,
        "wage": 101020
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 6080,
        "wage": 106220
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -1.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}