{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/mobile-heavy-equipment-mechanics-except-engines/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines", "soc_code": "49-3042", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 176600, "median_annual_wage": 65510 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "contested": false, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Diagnosing a leaking travel motor by feel and sound, torquing track shoe bolts to spec, pressing bushings, and re-shimming a swing gearbox are irreducibly manual — telematics may point you at a circuit, but the wire-by-wire chase behind a cab harness on a 12-year-old dozer still happens with a multimeter in your hand, which is why this sits at 17 rather than mid-band; the paperwork and fault-code lookup layer that AI does absorb is real but is a small slice of the shift.", "embodiment": "20 is the ceiling because the work goes to the machine, not the reverse: field service trucks to muddy pits, quarries and highway shoulders, working under a raised bucket, in trenches, on ladders against a haul truck tire taller than you, in whatever weather the site has that day — no controlled bay, no fixed fixture, no repeatable approach path.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates this trade — you can be hired on mechanical aptitude alone; the 5 reflects that employers and dealers lean hard on OEM certifications (Caterpillar, Deere, Komatsu), ASE Medium/Heavy Truck series, plus EPA 609/608 for A/C refrigerant work and crane-related inspection credentials in some jurisdictions, but none of that puts your personal name on the legal hook the way a PE stamp or an aircraft mechanic's A&P signature does.", "trust_premium": "11 reflects that fleet managers and site supers request specific mechanics by name because you know which of their 40 machines has the chronic hydraulic leak and which operator abuses the transmission, and a dealer's field tech keeps accounts alive — but the machine's downtime cost drives the call more than loyalty does, and a competent stranger who shows up faster will get the work.", "judgment_accountability": "14 is earned at the moment you decide a machine goes back into service: signing off a repaired crane hoist brake, a rebuilt steering circuit, or a brake system on a haul truck running a downhill grade means a crew's safety rides on your call, and you make it with incomplete information — no torque spec tells you whether a marginal pin bore will hold another 500 hours or whether that intermittent fault will strand the machine mid-lift." }, "rationale": "The core of this job is crawling over excavators, dozers, cranes and haul trucks in mud, cold and dust — pulling hydraulic cylinders, rebuilding final drives, chasing intermittent electrical faults, replacing undercarriage — none of which robotics can do at field sites. AI is genuinely eating the diagnostic paperwork layer: fault-code interpretation, telematics-driven failure prediction, service manual lookup, warranty claim write-ups and parts ordering. What remains is the physical repair plus the call on whether a machine is safe to return to a job site with a crew depending on it, which is a real accountability role even without a license.", "outlook": "Demand holds or grows as fleets get more electronically complex; the diagnostic guesswork shrinks while the wrench time and the safety sign-off stay firmly human.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Mandatory periodic inspection/certification of mobile cranes and aerial lifts by a qualified person is already in OSHA 1926.1412 and ANSI/ASME B30.5 — if state licensing boards or OSHA extend named, personally-signed competency certification (like NCCCO's crane inspector credential) to excavators, dozers and haul trucks used on public works, the mechanic's sign-off becomes a legally required licensed act rather than an employer-internal judgment", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer-driven documentation: if construction equipment insurers or bonding companies require a named, credentialed technician's signature on return-to-service records as a condition of coverage after a fatality claim (already routine in aviation and elevator work), personal exposure attaches without any new statute", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: the occupation has a routine tier (fault-code lookup, manual retrieval, warranty write-ups, parts ordering) and a judgment tier (intermittent electrical faults, wear-vs-failure calls, field improvisation on out-of-production machines). As OEM telematics platforms absorb the routine tier, the residual day is the tier AI cannot reach — plus growing electrification and high-voltage battery work on machines like Cat and Volvo electric excavators, which adds new non-automatable diagnostic labor", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If mine or highway agencies formalize the return-to-service decision as a named individual's responsibility in incident investigation practice — as MSHA already does for mobile equipment defect records under 30 CFR 56.14100 — the accountability becomes documented and attributable rather than diffuse", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Independent (non-dealer) repair rights: if state right-to-repair statutes for agricultural and construction equipment (Colorado HB24-1121 already covers ag; similar bills filed elsewhere) force OEMs to release diagnostic tools, independent shops can compete on a named-technician relationship rather than being locked out — buyers paying for a specific trusted mechanic rather than a dealer queue", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed at 20 and cannot rise. The realistic ceiling is roughly high-70s: liability_shield is the only dimension with substantial headroom, and equipment-mechanic licensing has no national professional body pushing for it the way electricians or elevator constructors do. Trust premium is structurally capped because the buyer is a fleet manager optimizing downtime cost, not a consumer choosing a human for its own sake." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 67, 67 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 131590, "wage": 50860 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 140260, "wage": 51920 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 147800, "wage": 53370 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 147680, "wage": 55350 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 145230, "wage": 58030 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 158350, "wage": 59440 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 177280, "wage": 61900 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 180270, "wage": 63980 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 176600, "wage": 65510 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 34.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }