{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/molders-shapers-and-casters-except-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-9195", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 33190, "median_annual_wage": 46170 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 38, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 13 the work sits at the top of the mixed band because pouring slip, dressing mold seams, and judging when a casting has set enough to strip still require hands and a trained eye — but the repeatable high-volume tiers (identical concrete pavers, pressure-cast sanitaryware, investment shells) have already been handed to automatic pouring cells and shell-dip robots, which is what keeps it out of the 14+ range.", "embodiment": "14 reflects a shop floor rather than a wilderness: you are lifting flasks, ramming sand, running vibrating tables, handling hot wax and caustic slurries, and working around dust and heat, but it is your own plant with fixed stations and known equipment — not a 17-plus job like line repair where the environment changes every call.", "liability_shield": "1 is near-floor because nothing in this trade requires a state licence or a personal sign-off — OSHA silica and respirator rules bind the employer, ASTM strength testing is done by the lab or the engineer of record, and a defective casting becomes the firm's warranty problem, not yours.", "trust_premium": "4 sits just above anonymous because the castings leave the shop unsigned and buyers reorder on spec and price, with the small uplift reserved for the pattern-and-mold hands whose specific feel for a difficult die the plant would miss — a limit that does not apply to named studio artisans who bill on reputation.", "judgment_accountability": "6 puts this at the boundary of procedural work: you choose parting lines, gate placement, water-to-plaster ratios and pull times from experience, but those calls run against a shop's established mold spec and get corrected on the next pour rather than committing the employer to an irreversible high-stakes outcome." }, "rationale": "This is hands-on work — patching plaster molds, pouring and vibrating concrete, packing sand cores, trimming greenware, hand-finishing ceramic and stone pieces — and none of it is text or screen work that language AI touches. The real threat isn't AI at all: it's conventional automation, CNC mold machining, robotic pouring cells and offshoring of the high-volume tiers, which have been shrinking this occupation for decades. The modal worker follows established mold-prep and casting procedures rather than making consequential judgment calls, and no license or signature protects the role.", "outlook": "Employment keeps eroding through the 2030s as high-volume casting mechanizes and moves offshore, while custom mold-making, restoration, and artisan finishing work remains steady for a smaller, more skilled workforce.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "As robotic pouring cells and CNC mold machining absorb the high-volume tier, the residual job concentrates in one-off, irregular, or repair work: architectural cast stone restoration, art-foundry investment casting, custom precast fixups on site, hand-patched plaster molds for short runs. This tier resists both AI and conventional automation because setups are non-repeating and defect diagnosis is tactile. Watch for shrinking headcount alongside rising median wage in NAICS 3272/3279 and art foundries — the signature of a judgment-tier remnant.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Shift of remaining work toward field/site casting and restoration rather than plant floor: cast-stone patching on standing facades, on-site precast repair, kiln and mold repair in cramped existing structures. Unstructured, one-off geometry is far harder to robotize than a fixed pouring cell. Recognizable if historic-preservation and infrastructure-repair spending (e.g. IIJA-funded bridge and facade work) becomes a larger share of these jobs.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Buyer-side specification of handwork as the product: Secretary of the Interior Standards-compliant historic restoration contracts that require hand-modeled replacement of ornamental plaster/cast stone matching original tooling, and art-market provenance norms where a foundry's hand-finishing (chasing, patina) is part of the attributed work. This is real but narrow — it covers restoration and fine-art casting, not concrete products or industrial cores, so most of the 33,190 workers see no benefit.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formalized in-plant quality gates that name a person: ACI/PCI precast plant certification and ASTM C1611/C143 fresh-concrete acceptance testing already put mix-adjustment and reject/accept calls on identified certified technicians. If precast producers respond to structural-failure litigation by requiring a certified caster to record and own each pour's slump/air/temperature acceptance decision, the modal role picks up a documented consequential call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Certification-not-license only: PCI Quality Control Personnel Level I/II or ACI Concrete Field Testing Technician being written into DOT and owner specifications as a named requirement for the person performing the test. This is a credential, not a personal-liability license, so the ceiling is low — it never becomes an engineer's seal.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint here is not AI and no lever addresses it: CNC mold machining, robotic pouring, and offshoring have shrunk this occupation for decades and will continue regardless of what happens to language models. Every lever above raises the resistance score of the surviving job while the number of such jobs keeps falling — a smaller, harder-to-automate remnant, not a protected occupation. Realistic combined ceiling is the low 50s, and concrete-products and industrial-core work, the bulk of employment, is the tier least reachable by any of it." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 41320, "wage": 31950 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 42500, "wage": 33340 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 44890, "wage": 34030 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 41660, "wage": 35440 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 38420, "wage": 37500 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 39060, "wage": 39590 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 38480, "wage": 43310 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 34750, "wage": 45690 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 33190, "wage": 46170 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -19.7, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 84, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation" ] }, { "slug": "jewelers-and-precious-stone-and-metal-workers", "title": "Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 54, "median_wage": 52540, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "furniture-finishers", "title": "Furniture Finishers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "median_wage": 44540, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation", "Instructing", "Repairing", "Persuasion" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }