{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/molding-coremaking-and-casting-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4072", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 150470, "median_annual_wage": 44350 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "contested": false, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 11, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 2, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Mold changes, pulling a hot sprue, clamping a die and re-shimming a gate are still hand work, but the tending half of the job — watch cycle, take part, put in bin, hit reset — is already done by takeout robots and conveyors on new presses, which is why this sits at 11 rather than up with millwrights.", "embodiment": "You work within arm's reach of 400°F barrels, 200-ton clamp forces and molten metal, breaking loose stuck cores and cleaning vents on your knees with the press open — the environment is uncontrolled enough for 14, though it's a fixed machine in a known bay rather than a roof or a trench, which keeps it off 18.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates this work; a forklift or overhead-crane card and lockout/tagout training are employer requirements, not a credential that makes you personally answerable, and any part defect traces to the QA sign-off and the customer's PPAP, not your name.", "trust_premium": "The customer buys a dimensioned part in a bin and never learns who ran the press; the only relationship that matters is with the setup lead and the next shift, and that's transferable the day you leave.", "judgment_accountability": "Most decisions are bounded by the job packet — the setup sheet gives barrel zones, cushion, hold pressure and cycle time, and the gauge either passes or you scrap the shot — so your discretion is real mainly in diagnosing why parts are short or flashing, which is troubleshooting inside known limits rather than an ambiguous call nobody else can make." }, "rationale": "The daily work — loading molds, setting temperature and pressure parameters, starting cycles, pulling parts, trimming flash, gauging dimensions, logging scrap — happens on a shop floor with hot metal and heavy tooling, which language AI cannot touch. The real threat is older and more proven: all-electric presses with recipe libraries, automated part-removal robots, conveyor takeoff, and vision-based inspection already let one technician tend cells that used to need three tenders. Setup judgment (diagnosing short shots, flash, warpage, sink marks and dialing in the fix) is the tier that persists; pure tending is the tier that keeps thinning.", "outlook": "Employment keeps eroding as automated cells and vision inspection replace tenders, while the smaller pool of setup-and-troubleshoot technicians sees stable demand and rising pay.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Tending tier is automated out (robot takeoff, vision inspection, recipe recall), leaving only the setup/troubleshooting tier: mold changeovers, diagnosing short shots and warpage on new tooling, dialing gate/vent/pack-hold on unfamiliar resins or alloys. The surviving job is closer to a process technician than an operator, and that residue is genuinely hard for current AI — but the headcount shrinks as the score rises.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Shift of remaining work toward high-mix, low-volume and short-run tooling — medical, aerospace castings, prototype molds — where every setup is a physically novel fixture, plus die/mold repair, hot-runner troubleshooting and manual polish/fit work that no cell automation covers.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Named-operator process-validation signoff under FDA 21 CFR 820 / ISO 13485 for molded medical devices and AS9100/NADCAP for aerospace castings: if customer audits and PPAP requirements harden to require a qualified individual, not just a system, to sign the process validation and first-article buyoff, a personal accountability trail attaches to the setter.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal authority to stop the cell and quarantine lots — e.g. a union contract or a quality-system procedure giving the setup technician documented stop-work authority on scrap-rate or dimensional drift, with their name on the disposition record for suspect product.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers purchase parts to a print and a Cpk number, and cannot tell who set the press. Liability gains are capped — the signoff is a quality-engineer or plant-manager function in most shops, and even a validated process shifts risk to the firm, not the individual. The most likely outcome is a smaller, more resistant occupation rather than a safer one." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 34, 35 ], "run_verdicts": [ "EXPOSED", "EXPOSED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 154860, "wage": 31090 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 164110, "wage": 31480 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 172520, "wage": 32130 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 155020, "wage": 33100 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 163210, "wage": 36370 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 165820, "wage": 37050 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 158980, "wage": 38870 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 154820, "wage": 41230 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 150470, "wage": 44350 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -2.8, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 88, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination" ] }, { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "wellhead-pumpers", "title": "Wellhead Pumpers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 44, "median_wage": 69960, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Operations Monitoring" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }