{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/motorboat-mechanics-and-service-technicians/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Motorboat Mechanics and Service Technicians",
    "soc_code": "49-3051",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 23220,
    "median_annual_wage": 57550
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": true,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Diagnostic software can read a Mercury SmartCraft fault code, but nothing automates dropping a lower unit off a 250 HP outboard, pressure-testing a gearcase, splitting a powerhead to replace a scored piston, or tracing a green-corroded harness behind a dash — the fault codes only narrow where a human still has to go with a wrench, which is why this sits at 17 rather than a full 20.",
    "embodiment": "You work bent over a transom into an engine well, upside down in a bilge over standing oily water, on a trailer in a gravel lot, or in a slip with the boat moving under you and salt spray on everything — uncontrolled position, uncontrolled footing, uncontrolled weather, which is the ceiling case for this dimension.",
    "liability_shield": "Most states license no marine mechanic at all; what you may hold is manufacturer certification — Mercury, Yamaha, Volvo Penta training, ABYC electrical — which the dealer needs to bill warranty work but which no statute requires and which does not put your name personally on the repair, so 5 reflects credentialing that gates the good jobs, not legal exposure.",
    "trust_premium": "Owners hand over a $60k boat before a holiday weekend and come back to the tech who correctly called the fuel-pump versus the ethanol-fouled carb last season, and that repeat-customer relationship at an independent shop or marina is real money — but the work is still judged by whether the engine runs, and a new tech at the same dealership inherits the work order, which caps this at 12.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Calling repower versus rebuild on a saltwater-corroded block, deciding whether an intermittent stall is the trigger, the stator, or water in the fuel, and signing off that a boat is safe to leave the dock with its bilge blower and fuel lines intact are calls made on incomplete evidence with someone's life on the water downstream — high discretion, though the failure mode is usually a tow, not a fatality, which is why 13 and not 17."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job is pulling lower units, replacing impellers and water pumps, chasing corroded wiring and fuel-system faults, and doing it in engine wells, bilges, and on trailers or in-water slips — physical positions no current robot handles. AI is already useful for the paper layer: interpreting diagnostic codes, pulling service-bulletin specs, writing estimates and warranty claims. There is no marine mechanic license in most states, so the moat is embodiment and customer trust, not regulation.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds roughly flat as boat electronics get more complex; the paperwork and lookup half of the day shrinks, and techs certified on pod drives, diesels, and marine electrical systems capture the wage growth.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State adoption of a marine technician licensing/certification requirement tied to fuel-system and CO-hazard work — Florida and Michigan boating-safety bodies have discussed this, and ABYC certification is already written into some insurer and marina-yard requirements. If a surveyor/insurer regime requires a named ABYC-certified technician to sign off on fuel, propane, and electrical repairs for the vessel to stay insurable, the shield goes from informal to personal.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "EPA/Coast Guard enforcement of emissions-component and ethanol fuel-line standards requiring a certified installer signature on repowers and fuel-system replacements, similar to the existing recreational marine engine emissions certification chain.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth of high-value electric and hybrid marine propulsion plus complex NMEA-2000 integrated electronics, where OEM programs (Mercury, Yamaha, Volvo Penta) restrict diagnostic tool and firmware access to factory-trained named technicians — buyers then pay for the authorized human specifically, not just labor hours.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: as code-reading and estimate writing move to AI, the remaining call is the ambiguous one — is this hull-side corrosion a fix or a condemn, is this engine safe to send offshore. If yards formalize a 'sea-trial release' or pre-delivery seaworthiness sign-off attached to a named technician, the consequential call becomes an owned one.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already 67 with embodiment maxed; the realistic upside is a licensure/insurer regime, and marine trades have resisted state licensing for decades, so the shield may stay informal indefinitely. Ceiling around 80."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs disagreed; merge is rounding-dependent",
    "outcome": "unresolved — published score left unchanged",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      63
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "EXPOSED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 21160,
        "wage": 38960
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 22280,
        "wage": 40180
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 22940,
        "wage": 41330
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 20440,
        "wage": 43320
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 23080,
        "wage": 46730
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 24920,
        "wage": 48280
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 23230,
        "wage": 49990
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 24250,
        "wage": 54950
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 23220,
        "wage": 57550
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 9.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}