{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/motorboat-operators/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Motorboat Operators",
    "soc_code": "53-5022",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 2480,
    "median_annual_wage": 47520
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 72,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 14,
    "trust_premium": 10,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Docking a 40-foot launch in a 2-knot cross-current with fenders out and a bow line in your hand, spotting a diver's bubbles before you go into gear, and judging whether today's 3-foot chop makes the inlet crossing a bad idea are all tasks with no digitized substitute — the 15 rather than 18 reflects that route planning, weather briefs, and the trip log genuinely have moved onto tablets.",
    "embodiment": "You are outdoors on a moving deck in whatever the weather does, handling lines and cleats, clearing a fouled prop, restarting a flooded outboard, helping passengers over a gunwale in swell — the environment is uncontrolled in every axis, which is as close to the ceiling as any job gets.",
    "liability_shield": "A USCG OUPV or Master's licence names you personally, subjects you to random drug and alcohol testing under 46 CFR Part 16, and makes you the master answerable for the vessel and every soul aboard in a marine casualty investigation — the 14 rather than 18 is because the OUPV is a relatively accessible ticket and the operating company usually carries the insurance and the deeper pockets.",
    "trust_premium": "Dive charters and fishing guides get repeat customers who ask for a specific captain, and passengers do read your steadiness when the weather turns, but most water-taxi and research-skiff work is booked by schedule or by employer, not by your name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The go/no-go call on marginal weather, the decision to abort a crossing with paying passengers grumbling, and how you handle a man-overboard or an engine failure offshore are yours alone with no one to phone — the 14 sits at the bottom of that band because collision regs, licensed carrying capacity, and company SOPs frame most routine decisions."
  },
  "rationale": "Piloting a dive boat, water taxi, tour launch, or research skiff means reading wind, chop, wakes, and crowded channels in real time while handling lines, engines, and passengers — none of that is screen work. USCG licensing (OUPV/Master, drug testing, tonnage endorsements) puts a named human legally responsible for the vessel and everyone aboard, and small-craft autonomy is nowhere near handling docking in current, or pulling a swimmer out of the water. The automatable slice is the paperwork: logs, manifests, fuel and maintenance records, trip scheduling, weather briefs.",
  "outlook": "Autonomy will creep into fixed, uncrowded runs and survey work first; licensed operators on passenger, dive, guide, and harbor craft stay in the wheelhouse through the 2030s.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "USCG rulemaking on autonomous/remotely-operated small passenger vessels that explicitly requires a licensed Master or OUPV physically aboard any vessel carrying passengers for hire, rather than allowing a remote operator — the direction already signaled in USCG's Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship policy work and IMO's MASS Code development (target 2028 non-mandatory / 2032 mandatory). A carve-out that keeps 46 CFR Subchapter T inspected small passenger vessels crew-aboard would lock the shield in.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Marine P&I insurers (e.g. through AWO/Passenger Vessel Association-negotiated hull and liability terms) writing named-licensed-operator-aboard clauses as a condition of coverage for dive, tour, and water taxi hulls, voiding cover for uncrewed or remote operation.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: if ECDIS-style route planning, collision-avoidance alerting, and weather routing become standard on small craft, the residual role concentrates on the calls autonomy cannot own — go/no-go in building seas, man-overboard recovery, deciding to abort a dive, crowd control in a grounding. The remaining day is almost entirely consequential ambiguity.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "State dive-operator statutes or NAUI/PADI/DAN-driven charter standards naming the vessel operator as the accountable party for dive-site suitability and surface-support decisions (following NTSB's post-Conception recommendations on roving watch and master's responsibilities, adopted in the 2022 Small Passenger Vessel Safety Act).",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "If logs, manifests, fuel records and CG-required documentation are absorbed by digital compliance tools, the measured remaining work is the unautomatable handling and passenger tier — the automatable slice shrinks to near zero rather than the job shrinking.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already 72 with embodiment near max; realistic headroom is a few points in liability and judgment. Trust premium has no plausible route — tour and taxi passengers buy the trip, not the human at the wheel, and no visible market segment charges for a human operator as such. Note also that the true risk to this occupation is demand-side (fewer charters, fleet consolidation), which none of these levers touch."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 2510,
        "wage": 44600
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 2510,
        "wage": 50290
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 2120,
        "wage": 48260
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 2380,
        "wage": 55910
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 2740,
        "wage": 38670
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 3110,
        "wage": 41430
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 2710,
        "wage": 46420
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 2380,
        "wage": 51880
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 2480,
        "wage": 47520
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -1.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}