{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/multiple-machine-tool-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4081", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 124590, "median_annual_wage": 47180 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 35, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 11, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Setting offsets, indexing a fresh insert, deburring a part, and reading a Bridgeport's sound at the cut still need hands and eyes at the machine, but the tending half of the job — cycle-start, load, unload, gauge-to-print — is already done by bar feeders, gantry loaders and in-process probing in shops that have bought them, which is why this sits at 11 rather than up with millwright work.", "embodiment": "You are inside the work envelope on your feet a full shift: hoisting fixtures, flooding coolant, augering chips, wearing safety glasses and sleeves around rotating stock and a press ram, in a shop where floor temperature, oil mist and material variation change hour to hour — short of the 17-20 band only because it happens on one guarded machine bank rather than a jobsite or overhead.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates running a lathe or an injection press; a shop can put an unbadged temp on second shift after a week of shadowing, and NIMS credentials or an apprenticeship card affect what you get paid, not whether you are legally permitted to cut metal.", "trust_premium": "The customer sees a first-article report and a dimension inside tolerance, never you; parts ship anonymously against a PO, and the only relationship that carries weight is the programmer or quality lead knowing your scrap rate — worth 3, not 0, because a shop will keep the operator whose setups run right the first time.", "judgment_accountability": "You work to the print, the router, and the setup sheet with tolerances and feeds specified, and the calls you own — pull the insert now or after ten more parts, scrap this one or send it to review — are real but bounded and reversible, with the engineer or QC signing off on anything that touches the process or a nonconformance." }, "rationale": "This job is hands-on — loading blanks, changing tooling, listening for chatter, gauging parts, clearing chips across a bank of mills, lathes, or presses — so language AI barely touches it directly. The real pressure is conventional factory automation: bar feeders, robotic load/unload cells, pallet changers, in-machine probing and automated vision inspection are exactly the technologies that let one operator run twelve machines instead of four, and then zero on a night shift. The threat is headcount compression per unit of output, not the disappearance of the skill set, and it moves at the speed of capital spending, not model releases.", "outlook": "Expect steady employment decline through the 2030s as machine-per-operator ratios rise and robotic tending cells spread to mid-size shops, with the remaining jobs concentrated in setup, programming, and short-run work.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "As lights-out cells absorb steady-state running, the surviving role becomes first-article setup, tool-path proofing, fixture design, and diagnosing chatter/thermal drift on new part numbers — genuinely a second tier in high-mix low-volume job shops (aerospace/medical machining), where setups per week rise as batch sizes fall. Watch for job postings shifting from 'operator/tender' to 'CNC setup technician' with a required GD&T and metrology component.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Deburring, chip management, coolant-covered fixture reloads, and hard-jaw changes on non-repeat parts remain unsolved by robot cells; if the machine population shifts further toward mixed-lot work where fixturing changes daily, the residual manual share per shift rises even as machines-per-operator rises.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "AS9100/NADCAP and FDA 21 CFR 820 first-article and process-validation records already require a named, qualified individual to sign FAI/AS9102 forms and validation runs. If prime contractors or notified bodies tighten this to require a certified operator signature on each setup approval where in-machine probing substitutes for CMM inspection — the direction DFARS/CMMC-era supplier audits are pushing — a signature requirement attaches to the setter specifically.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If scrap authority and stop-the-line rights are formally vested in the setup technician rather than a quality engineer — as in some UAW/IAM contracts and in ISO 9001 nonconforming-product procedures naming the operator as the disposition initiator — the role owns a consequential ambiguous call (run it, rework it, scrap a $4,000 forging) on every questionable first article.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "Every lever here raises the score of the job that survives, not the number of jobs. Headcount compression from bar feeders, pallet pools and robot load/unload continues regardless of how defensible the remaining setup role becomes — a shop can go from 12 tenders to 3 setup technicians with high liability_shield and judgment_accountability scores. Realistic ceiling around 50-55 for the residual role." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 121160, "wage": 34800 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 133840, "wage": 35390 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 146950, "wage": 36330 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 134660, "wage": 37510 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 134880, "wage": 37630 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 137060, "wage": 39210 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 127790, "wage": 41600 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 129850, "wage": 46060 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 124590, "wage": 47180 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 2.8, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics", "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 64520, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "electric-motor-power-tool-and-related-repairers", "title": "Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 60, "median_wage": 56210, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Selection", "Repairing", "Installation", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "automotive-body-and-related-repairers", "title": "Automotive Body and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 54890, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }