{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/office-clerks-general/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Office Clerks, General", "soc_code": "43-9061", "category": "Office", "us_employment": 2464940, "median_annual_wage": 45010 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 20, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 5, "embodiment": 7, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 3 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 5, the bulk of the day — keying entries into the AP or student-records system, pulling and re-filing folders, typing form letters from templates, reconciling a batch of invoices against POs, transferring calls — is already done end-to-end by OCR intake, RPA scripts and auto-attendants in shops that have bought them; it sits above the 0-4 floor only because mail runs, jammed copiers, walk-in visitors and the ad-hoc 'can you find that 2019 file in the basement' requests still need a body.", "embodiment": "A 7 reflects that the physical work is real but indoors and low-skill: sorting and distributing interoffice mail, carrying boxes of records to storage, loading the postage meter, restocking the supply cabinet, staffing a front counter — controlled climate, no ladders, no field sites, nothing that would push it toward the 13+ band of technicians working in someone else's building.", "liability_shield": "A 1 is honest: no state licenses general office clerks, nothing you produce carries your signature as the responsible party, and when a misfiled record or a mistyped invoice amount surfaces it is the office manager, controller or attorney of record who answers for it — the only reason it isn't 0 is that clerks handling PHI or student records are personally bound by HIPAA and FERPA confidentiality rules.", "trust_premium": "At 4, coworkers and regulars may know your name and the fact that you know where everything is kept, but the work is delivered as processed paperwork and routed calls that nobody attributes to a person — the requester wants the file, not you specifically, which is what separates this from the 6-12 band where a client asks for their usual contact.", "judgment_accountability": "A 3 matches work governed by the desk manual: which retention schedule a document falls under, which department a call goes to, which coding a routine invoice gets — all written down somewhere, with anything unusual escalated upward rather than decided, and the discretion that exists is prioritizing your own queue when three people need something at once." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — keying data, filing and retrieving records, drafting routine correspondence, processing invoices and forms, answering and routing calls — is exactly the text-and-screen work current AI plus workflow software already handles at usable quality. What survives is physical: sorting and distributing mail, handling paper records and equipment, stocking supplies, walking documents between people, and being the person at the front desk when someone shows up. There is no license, no signature requirement, and almost no ambiguous-decision authority to anchor the role.", "outlook": "Headcount keeps shrinking as document workflows and inbox routing automate; the jobs that remain consolidate into fewer facilities-and-exceptions coordinators who are physically present and own the messy cases.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "The residual physical tier — mail sortation, paper records custody, badge/visitor handling, supply stocking, walking wet-signature documents between offices — becomes the whole job as screen tasks are absorbed. Watch for job postings retitled 'office services associate' or 'facilities/mailroom coordinator' with no data-entry duties listed. Sectors still holding paper originals (courts, county recorders, medical records under state retention statutes, notarized real-estate files) sustain this longest.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Two-tier split: routine keying automates, and what remains is exception handling — reconciling records that don't match, chasing a vendor whose invoice fails three-way match, dealing with the walk-in whose paperwork is wrong. This tier is genuinely resistant because it is where the system already failed. Recognizable if headcount falls sharply while remaining roles get 'specialist' or 'coordinator' titles and higher pay bands.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Records-custody and chain-of-custody rules that name a human custodian. Concrete instances to watch: state court e-filing rules requiring a named human clerk to certify records; HIPAA release-of-information workflows where a designated human must verify identity before disclosure; and state notary statutes (most states still bar remote/automated notarization of certain instruments). If any of these are extended to require a named human attestation on AI-assembled record sets, a thin shield attaches.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Front-desk roles absorbing de facto security and privacy gatekeeping — deciding who gets admitted, what gets disclosed, when to escalate. Employer-side driver is insurer and OSHA workplace-violence pressure (California SB 553 requires a workplace violence prevention plan with designated responsible persons); if such designations land on reception staff by name, the role owns a consequential call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this occupation stays in the low-to-mid 30s, and the levers raise the score of the surviving jobs, not the number of them. The likeliest outcome is a small residual role at a somewhat higher score alongside a very large headcount reduction. There is no plausible route to a trust premium: buyers do not pay extra for a human to key an invoice, and no professional body exists to create licensure." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 20, 22 ], "run_verdicts": [ "COOKED", "COOKED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 2967620, "wage": 31500 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 2972930, "wage": 32730 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 2956060, "wage": 34040 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 2788090, "wage": 35330 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 2578180, "wage": 37030 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 2517350, "wage": 38040 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 2496370, "wage": 40480 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 2510550, "wage": 43630 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 2464940, "wage": 45010 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -16.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "court-reporters-and-simultaneous-captioners", "title": "Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "median_wage": 72420, "overlap": 68, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance" ] }, { "slug": "tax-examiners-and-collectors-and-revenue-agents", "title": "Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "median_wage": 62370, "overlap": 65, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Critical Thinking", "Learning Strategies", "Operations Analysis" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }