{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/office-machine-operators-except-computer/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Office Machine Operators, Except Computer",
    "soc_code": "43-9071",
    "category": "Office",
    "us_employment": 25130,
    "median_annual_wage": 40960
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 22,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 7,
    "embodiment": 8,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 3,
    "judgment_accountability": 3
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 7 rather than 4, what keeps this above the floor is the stock-handling and machine-tending nobody has automated — loading 11x17 and cardstock, changing toner and staple cartridges, re-threading a folder-inserter after a double-feed, running test sheets before a 5,000-piece mail drop — but the reason it isn't 12 is that the output itself, the printed and mailed document, is being deleted by e-signature and PDF distribution rather than done by a machine that replaces you.",
    "embodiment": "An 8 reflects that you are standing at the device, not sitting at a screen: clearing jams inside a warm fuser, lifting 500-sheet reams and cases of paper, wheeling bins of finished jobs to shipping, changing postage meter tapes — but it is all in a climate-controlled mail or repro room with predictable machine geometry, which is why it sits well below field trades working on ladders and in weather.",
    "liability_shield": "A 1 is accurate because nothing about running a copier, folder-inserter, or postage meter requires a licence or certification — the USPS permit and meter account belong to the employer, and if a mailing goes out wrong the postage or reprint cost falls on the department, not on you personally.",
    "trust_premium": "At 3, the internal requesters know your name and may walk jobs down to you personally, but what they are buying is the finished stack by the deadline — any competent operator hands them the same collated binders, and the job follows the ticket, not you.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 3 fits because the discretion you exercise is real but narrow — deciding to run duplex versus simplex, catching that a job ticket's page count doesn't match the file, choosing which of two copiers is free — inside a job ticket that already specifies stock, quantity, finishing, and due date."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — running high-volume copiers, folding/inserting and postage machines, binding and collating jobs, tracking supply and meter counts — is already being eliminated by digital documents, e-signature, and self-service multifunction devices, and the paper handling that remains is low-skill enough to be absorbed into other clerical roles. The physical component (clearing jams, loading stock, hauling finished jobs) is the only real friction, since a robot that reliably re-threads a folder is not on the market. There is no licensure, no client relationship being paid for, and almost no discretion: job tickets specify the output.",
  "outlook": "Expect continued sharp decline as paper workflows disappear; the surviving jobs will be device-technician, mailroom-lead, and specialty finishing roles rather than 'machine operator'.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Physical print/mail work concentrating into high-volume secure production sites (election ballot printing, court-mandated notice mailings, benefit statements) where jams, mismatched inserts, and stock changeovers on Pitney Bowes/Kern inserters must be cleared by a person under camera and with per-piece reconciliation — the residual job becomes machine tending in an environment nobody will let a mobile robot into. Watch for state election-office contracts specifying named on-site operators for ballot inserting.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Mail-integrity reconciliation becoming a named-operator duty: when insert counts don't match the file, the operator decides whether to pull, reprint, or release the run. Codified in things like USPS Move Update / IMb full-service audit requirements and state ballot chain-of-custody statutes (e.g. ballot printing vendors required to log who cleared each rejected piece).",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Not licensure, but attestation: HIPAA/GLBA breach cases involving mis-inserted statements (multiple real incidents of members receiving each other's EOBs) pushing insurers and state AG settlements to require a signed per-run reconciliation attestation by a named production operator. This is a contractual/consent-decree mechanism, not a board license, so the ceiling is low.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is weak here but not zero: if the routine tier (walk-up copying, simple collation) fully disappears into self-service MFDs, what remains is variable-data production, bindery setup, and color/imposition troubleshooting — closer to 51-5112 press operator than clerical. Recognizable if BLS reclassifies or if job postings for the title start requiring imposition software and inserter setup.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays low. There is no licensure route, no buyer who specifically wants a human running a folder, and the volume of physical mail is structurally declining — the levers protect a shrinking number of seats at secure print/mail plants, not the occupation. Realistic ceiling is roughly the mid-30s."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 54950,
        "wage": 31360
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 48580,
        "wage": 32790
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 45960,
        "wage": 33450
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 40640,
        "wage": 34730
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 32920,
        "wage": 36630
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 30410,
        "wage": 36710
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 27960,
        "wage": 37450
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 24740,
        "wage": 39020
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 25130,
        "wage": 40960
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -54.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "grinding-lapping-polishing-and-buffing-machine-tool-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic",
      "title": "Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 36,
      "median_wage": 46550,
      "overlap": 75,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operations Monitoring",
        "Operation and Control",
        "Quality Control Analysis",
        "Science"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "paper-goods-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders",
      "title": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 38,
      "median_wage": 50270,
      "overlap": 73,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operations Monitoring"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}