{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/operating-engineers-and-other-construction-equipment-operators/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators",
    "soc_code": "47-2073",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 478090,
    "median_annual_wage": 59850
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 64,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Trenching to depth beside a live gas main, feeling the machine load through the sticks, and re-planning the cut when you hit unexpected rock or groundwater are decisions made from seat-of-the-pants feedback that no text model generates and only fenced autonomous haul fleets have replicated — the 17 rather than 20 reflects that GPS grade control and semi-autonomous dozer packages have genuinely taken over final trim and repetitive mass excavation.",
    "embodiment": "You are in the cab in mud, dust, cold and heat, dismounting to grease pins, check tracks and walk the cut, working within feet of ground crews, overhead lines and unshored trenches — an entirely uncontrolled environment with no screen-only fraction of the job to shave the score below 20.",
    "liability_shield": "A CDL for hauling the machine, an NCCCO card if you swing a crane, an OSHA 10/30 and an employer competent-person sign-off are the whole credential stack — no state-issued licence attaches personal liability to your name, so the general contractor's insurer and the site super absorb an incident, which is why this lands at 6 rather than 2.",
    "trust_premium": "Superintendents ask for specific operators by name because they know who can hold grade without a checker and who won't clip the layout stakes, and union hall and repeat-contractor relationships drive callbacks — but the deliverable is a finished subgrade, not a relationship, and a competent replacement from the hall works Monday.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether that trench wall will stand, whether the load is within chart on soft ground, and when to shut down for wind or rain — real life-safety calls made in seconds — capped at 13 because excavation, shoring and lift plans, utility locates and pick charts are set by engineers and competent persons above you, and you execute inside them."
  },
  "rationale": "Running an excavator, dozer, or grader on a live jobsite — reading soil, spotting utilities, working around ground crews and shifting weather — is exactly what language AI can't touch and what robotics still handles only in fenced, repetitive settings like mine haul roads. The real pressure is different: GPS machine control and automated grade systems already do the fine blade work that used to define a senior operator's value, compressing the skill premium and letting one operator cover more ground per shift. Licensure is thin (CDL, crane or aerial certs, OSHA cards rather than a professional stamp), so the moat is physical and contractual, not regulatory.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds roughly flat through the 2030s on infrastructure spending, but automated grade control and semi-autonomous earthmoving keep raising output per operator, so pay growth concentrates in operators who own machine-control setup, crane/utility-adjacent certs, and crew leadership.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Extension of the crane-style licensing model (OSHA 1926.1427 / NCCCO certification, with named operator liability) to autonomous or remotely supervised earthmoving: a state or OSHA rule requiring a certified operator-in-charge physically present and personally accountable per autonomous machine, as Nevada/California have done for driverless trucking bills. Also: state one-call/811 damage-prevention statutes being amended to name a certified excavation operator (not just the contractor) as the responsible party for strikes near gas transmission lines — several PHMSA-funded state programs already push individual operator qualification.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "OSHA's 'competent person' duty for trench protective systems (1926.651/652) being formally assigned to the equipment operator on small crews rather than a separate foreman, with documented daily soil-classification and sloping decisions signed by that person. Insurers already push written trench plans after fatality claims; making the operator the signer is a small step.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as GPS machine control absorbs open-field grading: the residual work concentrates in utility-congested urban excavation, demolition, tie-ins to live infrastructure, slope and rock work, and confined-site operation where base maps are wrong and the operator reads spoil and machine feedback. This is a genuine two-tier occupation and the routine tier is the one already going.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Project labor agreements and IUOE local contracts adding explicit staffing-ratio clauses for automated/semi-autonomous equipment — one certified operator per machine regardless of autonomy level — mirroring the ILA's automation ban language in the 2025 master contract. Public-owner PLAs on federally funded infrastructure are where this would appear first.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and cannot rise. The buyer-side trust premium is weak on its own — general contractors buy hours and grade tolerance, not a named human — so any gain there is contractual (union/PLA) rather than a real customer preference, and it holds only as long as the bargaining power does."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      64,
      66
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "EXPOSED",
      "EXPOSED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 365300,
        "wage": 47040
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 383480,
        "wage": 47810
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 405750,
        "wage": 48980
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 402870,
        "wage": 49770
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 404820,
        "wage": 48360
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 423040,
        "wage": 51430
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 450370,
        "wage": 56160
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 469270,
        "wage": 58710
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 478090,
        "wage": 59850
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 30.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}