{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/outdoor-power-equipment-and-other-small-engine-mechanics/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics", "soc_code": "49-3053", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 36060, "median_annual_wage": 47880 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 57, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 10, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Pulling a flywheel to check a sheared key, cleaning a gummed two-stroke carb jet by jet, and re-tensioning a chainsaw clutch are irreducibly manual sequences on hundreds of non-standard chassis, which is why this sits at 17 rather than 13 — even the diagnostic step depends on hearing a lean surge and feeling compression on the recoil.", "embodiment": "You work over a bench and on the ground with the machine in whatever state the customer dropped it — caked grass, stale ethanol fuel, seized fasteners, sometimes on-site at a golf course or rental yard — and the only thing keeping this off a 20 is that most of the day is at a fixed bench rather than up a hillside.", "liability_shield": "There is no state license to be a small engine mechanic; EETC or manufacturer certification (Briggs, Kohler, Stihl gold) is a hiring preference and warranty-authorization requirement, not a legal gate, so nothing stops a shop owner or the customer's nephew from doing the same repair.", "trust_premium": "Landscaping crews and rental fleets come back to the tech who knows their 30 units and turns a mower around before Monday, which is real repeat business worth 10 — but homeowners bringing a $200 mower once every three years choose on price and turnaround, not on you.", "judgment_accountability": "The consequential call is repair-versus-replace economics on a machine worth less than four hours of labor, plus deciding when a cracked block or scored cylinder means stop — genuine discretion, but bounded by service manuals, torque specs, and flat-rate times rather than open-ended ambiguity." }, "rationale": "The work is disassembling carburetors, replacing pull cords and ignition coils, sharpening blades, and diagnosing a mower that won't start by feel, sound, and compression test — none of which a language model or current robot can do. AI's real reach here is the paperwork layer: work orders, parts lookup, estimate generation, and diagnostic reference that used to require a veteran's memory. The score sits mid-range not because the hands-on work is threatened but because there's no license protecting the trade and demand is tied to a consumer equipment market drifting toward sealed, cheap-to-replace battery units.", "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat as the work shifts from consumer mowers toward commercial fleets and battery-platform service; the mechanics who add certifications and mobile field service will do noticeably better than the counter-repair generalists.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Battery/lithium-ion service creates a real certification hook: if NFPA/state fire codes or insurers begin requiring a certified technician to sign off on lithium battery pack repair or replacement in outdoor power equipment (mirroring EV high-voltage service credentialing and existing e-bike battery fire ordinances in New York City), a named-technician sign-off enters the trade for the first time.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "EPA Phase 3 small-engine emissions enforcement extended to require certified-shop documentation for carburetor/emissions component replacement, or CARB tamper rules applied at the repair-shop level rather than the manufacturer level.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "State right-to-repair statutes covering outdoor power equipment (Colorado HB24-1121 already covers agricultural equipment; Oregon and Minnesota electronics laws show the pattern) forcing OEMs to release parts, diagnostic tools and firmware unlocks to independent shops — which converts sealed battery units from throwaway into serviceable and restores independent shops as the buyer's chosen alternative to dealer-only service.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Commercial landscaping fleet contracts (lawn crews, municipal parks) shifting to retainer maintenance agreements with a named technician and uptime guarantees, as opposed to walk-in consumer repair; the buyer is then paying for a relationship, not a transaction.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as cheap consumer units become disposable: the surviving work is high-value commercial two-stroke, zero-turn hydrostatic drives, generators, and marine/powersports engines, where diagnosis is genuinely ambiguous and the routine carburetor-rebuild tier has left the shop with the throwaway mowers.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Standby generator and emergency-power servicing under NFPA 110 load-bank testing requirements, where the technician's declaration that a unit will start under load carries consequences for hospitals, data centers and telecom sites.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is market volume, not capability: no lever here protects against the consumer segment migrating to sealed battery units that are cheaper to replace than to open. Licensing has never existed in this trade and no state board is currently proposing one, so liability_shield realistically stays in single digits." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 31300, "wage": 34370 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 31760, "wage": 35400 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 32160, "wage": 36100 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 31500, "wage": 37530 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 34700, "wage": 37540 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 35570, "wage": 40030 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 36080, "wage": 44140 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 34240, "wage": 46560 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 36060, "wage": 47880 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 15.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "motorboat-mechanics-and-service-technicians", "title": "Motorboat Mechanics and Service Technicians", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 57550, "overlap": 89, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "bus-and-truck-mechanics-and-diesel-engine-specialists", "title": "Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "median_wage": 61770, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Analysis", "Programming" ] }, { "slug": "control-and-valve-installers-and-repairers-except-mechanical-door", "title": "Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "median_wage": 74340, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }