{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/packaging-and-filling-machine-operators-and-tenders/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders", "soc_code": "51-9111", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 379060, "median_annual_wage": 43220 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 29, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 8, "embodiment": 13, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 2, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Checkweighers, vision seal inspection and PLC recipe recall already cover the monitored steps, and the counting and downtime logging that used to be your clipboard now writes itself into the MES — what keeps this at 8 rather than 3 is that a bag jam in a VFFS former, a film splice, or swapping change parts for a different bottle diameter still needs hands and feel that no line has bought out yet.", "embodiment": "You are on the floor for a full shift: reaching into guarded machine sections after lockout to pull crushed cartons, wet-sanitation washdown on food lines, lifting film reels and cases, standing on concrete near moving conveyors — 13 not higher because it is your plant, your fixed line, with known layout and controlled temperature, not a construction site or a customer's roof.", "liability_shield": "There is no operator license for a filler; a forklift cert or food-handler card and internal SOP sign-offs are the ceiling, and when a lot ships underweight or with a bad seal it is the QA manager and the plant's HACCP or FDA-registered facility responsibility on the line, not your name — hence 2 rather than 0, since documented GMP training does exist.", "trust_premium": "The buyer sees a sealed case, never you; the only relationship is with the maintenance tech and the supervisor down the hall, and either could be handed your line next shift with a two-page changeover sheet.", "judgment_accountability": "Your calls are bounded ones — stop the line, adjust a fill target within tolerance, tag out a bad head, call maintenance — all with a defined trigger and a spec sheet behind them, and the 4 reflects that you decide when to pull the andon and quarantine product rather than being a pure button-pusher." }, "rationale": "The core loop — feed materials, monitor fill weights and seals, log counts, clear jams, run changeovers — sits inside a controlled, repeatable factory environment, which is exactly where conventional automation and machine vision already win; AI mainly accelerates the inspection and scheduling layers that used to justify a human tender. Physical presence still matters for jam clearing, tooling changeovers, sanitation and material handling, which is why the job doesn't vanish overnight, but headcount per line keeps falling as vision-based QC and auto-changeover systems get cheaper. No license, no client relationship, and almost no discretionary authority to fall back on.", "outlook": "Expect continued slow decline in headcount per line through the 2030s, with surviving roles consolidating into setup, changeover, and machine-troubleshooting positions that cover several lines at once.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "FDA's FSMA Preventive Controls rule (21 CFR 117) already requires a trained 'preventive controls qualified individual' to verify and sign CCP monitoring records; if FDA or a customer-driven scheme (SQF/BRCGS) tightened this so the line operator personally signs each fill-weight/seal-integrity CCP verification rather than a plant QA manager signing in aggregate — or if the DSCSA/compounded-drug fill side extended named-operator batch-record signing to consumer packaging — a signature duty attaches to the tender role. Similar for NIST Handbook 133 net-content checks under state weights-and-measures inspection.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If recall-driven audits push plants to give the line tender documented stop-line authority (an Andon/stop-ship call that cannot be overridden by scheduling), as some UFCW and Teamsters food-plant contracts and post-recall consent decrees have formalized, the role owns a consequential ambiguous call — hold or release a suspect lot.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: once vision QC and auto-changeover absorb monitoring and logging, what remains is unscripted — novel jam root-causing, seal-failure diagnosis across film lots, sanitation validation, and tooling fit on short-run SKUs. If SKU proliferation and contract-packaging short runs continue (already visible in co-packer growth), changeovers per shift rise and the residual job is the diagnostic tier.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Aseptic and allergen-segregated lines, plus cannabis/nutraceutical fill rooms with heavy sanitation and manual clean-in-place teardown, keep hands inside the machine; if allergen cross-contact rules or state cannabis packaging rules mandate documented manual teardown between runs, physical presence per line increases.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic trust-premium route — buyers never see or select the operator, and the output is a sealed anonymous package. Even with every lever, this stays a headcount-per-line story: total employment falls as vision QC and auto-changeover spread, regardless of what the remaining role is allowed to sign." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 392910, "wage": 29350 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 395330, "wage": 30160 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 390540, "wage": 30990 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 370910, "wage": 32640 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 358640, "wage": 35960 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 369330, "wage": 36750 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 371600, "wage": 38330 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 383860, "wage": 40900 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 379060, "wage": 43220 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -3.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "metal-refining-furnace-operators-and-tenders", "title": "Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 43, "median_wage": 54430, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Equipment Selection", "Management of Material Resources", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "gas-compressor-and-gas-pumping-station-operators", "title": "Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 41, "median_wage": 77320, "overlap": 70, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Science", "Management of Material Resources", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "separating-filtering-clarifying-precipitating-and-still-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders", "title": "Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 41, "median_wage": 51610, "overlap": 68, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Installation", "Management of Material Resources", "Operations Analysis" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }