{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/painters-construction-and-maintenance/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Painters, Construction and Maintenance",
    "soc_code": "47-2141",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 225190,
    "median_annual_wage": 49400
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 65,
  "contested": true,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 18,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Cutting in a straight line where wall meets ceiling on a 90-year-old out-of-plumb wall, feathering a patch so it disappears under a sheen, and judging when a coat has flashed enough to recoat are hand-eye tasks no commercial system performs; the 18 rather than 20 reflects that mass repetitive spray work — new-construction interiors, warehouse decks, structural steel in shops — is already being done by spray robots and automated line equipment.",
    "embodiment": "You work from extension ladders, pump jacks and swing stages, in attics and crawlspaces, over occupied furniture, on exteriors where wind and dew point decide whether you can spray at all, and in enclosed spaces where lead-paint dust and solvent vapor drive your respirator choice — there is no controlled cell for any of it.",
    "liability_shield": "Most states license the painting contractor, not the painter, and the credential that actually attaches to your person is the EPA RRP renovator certification for pre-1978 housing plus OSHA lead and silica training — real requirements with real fines, but they attach to the firm's certification and the GC's contract, not to a personal seal you sign a job off with.",
    "trust_premium": "Repeat residential and property-management work runs on the fact that homeowners let you into an empty house and expect furniture covered and no overspray on the neighbor's car, which is why referrals dominate the small-shop end; the 11 stops short of higher because commercial and new-construction painting is subcontracted on price to a name the occupant never learns.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether existing coating needs full strip or spot prime, whether that stain is water intrusion that will bleed through, what primer bonds to unknown glossy substrate, and whether today's humidity will trap moisture under the topcoat — real calls, but the failure mode is a callback and a recoat, not injury or structural loss, which is what keeps this at 10 rather than in the teens."
  },
  "rationale": "Almost nothing a painter does is text or screen work: scraping and sanding, patching drywall, masking and taping edges, setting ladders and scaffolds, cutting in trim by hand, and spraying exteriors in variable weather are all unautomated by current robotics. AI's real bite is on the office side — estimating square footage and paint quantities, generating bids and proposals, scheduling crews, and producing color-visualization mockups for clients. The exposure that matters here is competitive and economic (bid-price compression, easier entry for anyone who can generate a professional-looking quote), not task replacement.",
  "outlook": "Demand holds steady through 2035 on repaint and maintenance cycles that no robot can reach, but margins tighten as automated estimating lets more contractors bid the same jobs — the painters who protect income are the ones certified for lead-safe and specialty coating work.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Expansion of EPA's Lead Renovation, Repair and Painting rule to require a named certified renovator personally present and signing the containment/clearance record on all pre-1978 work (EPA has repeatedly revisited clearance-testing requirements after the 2017 D.C. Circuit remand), plus states adding individual painting-contractor licensure with personal exposure rather than firm-only registration — as CA, VA, and MD-style licensure schemes do — would move the shield from paperwork to a signature that attaches to a person.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Industrial/marine coatings work moving further under AMPP (former NACE/SSPC) certified coating inspector sign-off, where a named inspector attests to surface prep and DFT readings on bridge and tank contracts — already contractually mandatory on many state DOT and Navy jobs, and expandable by specification without new legislation.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth of the segment where the buyer is explicitly paying for a hand: historic-district restoration under local preservation commission review, decorative/faux and lime-plaster finishes, and fine interior enamel trim where spray-and-caulk production work is visibly distinguishable. This is a mix shift within the occupation, not a rise for the production repaint trade.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If manufacturer warranties on high-performance coatings (Sherwin-Williams/PPG extended-warranty programs) continue to condition coverage on a certified applicator's documented substrate moisture, dew-point and film-thickness calls, the applicator owns a consequential judgment under ambiguity with money attached to being wrong.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Not a route worth naming: the score is already 18 and the office tier being automated (estimating, bids, color mockups) is the small part of the day. Automating it raises the judgment share only marginally.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is maxed at 20 and task_resistance at 18 — there is no headroom on the capability side. The real threat named in the profile is bid-price compression and easier entry, and none of the levers above touch that directly; licensure and certification are the only mechanisms that raise the cost of entry, which is why liability_shield is the load-bearing dimension here. Realistic ceiling is roughly 75."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs disagreed; merge is rounding-dependent",
    "outcome": "unresolved — published score left unchanged",
    "run_totals": [
      65,
      67
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "EXPOSED",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 221340,
        "wage": 37960
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 228420,
        "wage": 38940
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 232760,
        "wage": 40280
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 217880,
        "wage": 42130
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 214220,
        "wage": 45590
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 215680,
        "wage": 46090
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 215910,
        "wage": 47700
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 224180,
        "wage": 48660
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 225190,
        "wage": 49400
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 1.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}